🎧NEW: @zichen.bsky.social, founder and editor of Pekingology, joins @rorrydaniels.bsky.social on Asia Inside Out to unpack U.S.-China relations a month after “Liberation Day”, the future of the relationship, and why maintaining people-to-people ties still matter.
Tune in now ⬇️
📺WATCH: ASPI's @rorrydaniels.bsky.social and @jamescrabtree.bsky.social join @tvpworld.bsky.social to discuss how #Trump's foreign policy shift will reshape #Asia.
Watch the full interview ⬇️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4U7...
"...all of the narratives about CCP influence remain salient. All of the irritants that seem pacified for now could easily rear up again if President Trump or his key advisors see value in using them for leverage..."
— @rorrydaniels.bsky.social at @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org https://buff.ly/4gY97vE
Delighted to speak to Swasti Rao at The Print on Trump’s priorities and the U.S.-India relationship this week @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org
youtu.be/rj51DgJU9UU?...
"What matters now for the India-US relationship is finding the areas on the margins of both sides’ ambitions where interests align," writes @rorrydaniels.bsky.social in a new op-ed for @indianexpress.com
But internal cohesion--essential to the implementation of whatever deal is reached--augurs waiting and seeing if those contradictions resolve without providing too much input that would sway how they are reconciled. Will be watching closely! 6/6
5) Biggest variables are miscalculations of other side's priorities, internal cohesion (can Trump team speak with one voice?), and third parties/major events. Miscalculation and third party/event risk best managed through early meeting with low expectations... 5/6
4) We could see the US-Ch negotiate back to square one--the removal of restrictions on critical minerals, lifting of certain sanctions, tariffs go back to today's baseline, etc. This is still progress though, its a passable test of new players feeling each other out. 4/6
3) That opening gesture can set up a future bilat with more time to make progress on process/deliverables. The strategic question is whether the current moves/threats by both sides are anticipatory concessions or total spoilers 3/6
2) The Chinese would prefer a mtg that is bilateral (not Xi in a crowd) and controllable (no protests, some deliverables)--the inauguration is neither. However, Xi can send a personal envoy, a special gift, a letter, etc to pay respect to Trump 2/6
Will Xi Jinping attend Donald Trump's inauguration? I doubt it, but interesting opening move. My thoughts:
1) Xi and Trump do need to meet early to set the tone of the bilateral relationship over the next 4 years. No other channel will be authoritative enough for either side 1/6
Beijing views #Taiwan's Lai Ching-te as a separatist deterred only by force, while Lai avoids concessions amid domestic challenges and U.S. ties. How will the next year play out? Read more in
@asiapolicy
’s new report: asiasociety.org/policy-insti... #ASPIChina2025
9DASHLINE op-Ed by Rorry Daniels
"For at least the next four years, downward pressure on the US-China relationship will prevent a breakthrough in cross-Taiwan Strait relations" buff.ly/3BtDxqK |
My first op-Ed for
@USATODAY
on why sanctions need an overhaul
www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
