12.02.2026 18:21
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If we don’t want “statistical significance” to drive what gets highlighted, should publication hinge on whether the question (and design) is important—regardless of whether the estimate is precise enough to reject the null? What role should significance play?
If the goal is diversification away from US exposure, do you see European reserves shifting meaningfully toward gold (or other non-dollar assets)?
Elliott Ash’s AEA 2026 talk had a nice, practical text-analysis workflow: LLM labels a subset → human validation → train a classifier (RoBERTa/etc.) → apply to the full corpus (+ iterate on edge cases).
Retail investors are neither repeat players nor specialists; if catch-up clauses effectively negate hurdle rates, or if IRR obscures the true pace of wealth accumulation, structures that institutions tolerate could be reinterpreted as misleading in court.
Interesting FT argument on the “democratisation” of private equity: it may not only raise suitability issues for retail investors, but also increase legal risk for PE firms.
While I grew up with red packets, it really depends on how well you know someone. My uncle got me 'Wealth of Nations' and Keynes' 'General Theory' because he knew my interests. When in doubt, cash works - but personalized gifts can mean so much more when you know someone well.
Thanks!
Good advice. With hotel refunds possible until December 13th, waiting makes sense. Especially for those of us with flight tickets already booked.
Can ChatGPT/Claude handle this well?
Currency depreciation ≠ automatic export boost in the age of GVCs. Foreign value-added & re-exporting mute trade elasticity, weakening the link between exchange rates and trade balances. #GlobalValueChains #FX
Initial DB estimates suggest tariffs would have their peak inflation impact in 2026 before fading. Will be interesting to see more research on this as it's an important question.
Very relevant paper to the discussion about tariffs and prices.
Thanks - just my sense, but given past policies, tariffs feel most likely to actually happen among campaign promises.
How much inflation (if any) should we expect from tariffs? Not a fan of tariffs but curious about effects on overall price levels.
Interesting FX policy paradox: Fiscal stimulus + tariffs could strengthen USD in the short term despite intentions to weaken it, but longer-term inflation effects might lead to the opposite effect. www.ft.com/content/e0e4...
New to Bluesky and loving these resource threads! Thanks @aaronsojourner.org - perfect timing as I explore more econ content here.