@asentance
Independent Business Economist. Columnist for The Times and church musician. Former roles include: Bank of England MPC member; CBI Director of Economic Affairs; BA Chief Economist; and PwC Senior Economic Adviser.
Agreed, Tony. Why should Powell give Trump what he wants by resigning? He should stick to his guns and operate independently according to the traditions of the US constitution.
My latest column in #MailonSunday today. UK inflation is heading above 5 percent this autumn and Trump tariffs could make things worse. Bank of England should hold off from further interest rate cuts until the tariff & inflation situation is clearer. www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/market...
Price hikes this month from a variety of sources - energy/water bills, broadband, TV & phone charges, pay increases and additional employer NICs, council tax, etc. CPI inflation to exceed 5pc later this year and no scope to cut interest rates.
Inflation alert: Pay rising at 6pc in U.K. - totally incompatible with 2pc inflation. Expected big cuts in interest rates now look unlikely as Bank of England battles with another surge in inflation, which will get added momentum from NI & minimum wage increases in April.
@marklewisohn.bsky.social Just finished listening to the excellent audio book of “Tune In” - a brilliant + highly detailed account of the early Beatles years. Would highly recommend it. Also have the signed hardback book from when I met Mark in 2010s. Roll on the 2nd & 3rd volumes of the trilogy!
The EU and UK have been supine and subservient in response to Trump - very disappointing. Europe behaves as if it is impotent on the world stage, while Trump continues to threaten us with tariffs and his naive approach to international relations.
My latest blog, posted on the NIESR website. A sceptical look at the UK government’s growth agenda, which faces a number of headwinds, including the impact of Budget measures.
Rachel Reeves’s growth speech today was a damp squib. Promises to expand Heathrow are meaningless when gov’ts since 2003 have said the same. Other promises - to reform planning & benefits - have been made many times before. Nothing in the speech can offset the Budget tax rises hitting business.
Rachel Reeves wants us to talk up the UK economy but hard to do that when she has spent the past 6 months exaggerating UK’s economic problems so she can blame the Tories. Talk is not enough. Action is needed. Tim to ease the damaging impact of Budget tax rises.
@ukjeremyclarke.bsky.social Welcome to BlueSky, Jeremy. The thinking person’s social media network!
Very good comment from Rob on how air fares distorted the December inflation figures.
UK inflation slightly better than expected todaay. Headline CPI inflation at 2.5pc (from 2.6pc). Core inflation still over 3pc at 3.2pc. Services inflation still high - 4.4pc. When minimum wage rises and higher employer NI kick in from April, CPI inflation will be up again, rising above 3pc.
Instead of following the example of the cautious & prudent Gordon Brown, Rachel Reeves is now pursuing same policies as Denis Healey in 1974/5 - big rises in spending, tax and borrowing. Result is likely to be the same - a major financial crisis and policy U-turn.
Rachel Reeves is asking fellow cabinet ministers for ideas on how to generate economic growth. She is the Chancellor with over 3,000 Treasury civil servants to help her. If she cannot come up with a decent growth plan with all those resources, it’s not clear her Cabinet colleagues will do better!
Requires “difficult choices” as Chancellor has said. So far she has not made any in terms of public spending. Saving 0.5pc of GDP from 10 other gov’t depts is easier than cutting 5pc from one dept. Also asset sales might help as in 1980s. Gov’t owns a lot of land which private sector could develop.
Root of Chancellor Reeves’s problems is big rises in public spending in October Budget - leading to higher borrowing, tax & inflation. Here’s my alternative plan, published pre-Budget: using reforms and economies to gradually reduce the gov’t expenditure share of GDP to 40pc, its long-term average.
Stephen Stills, legendary guitarist, singer and songwriter, was 80 yesterday. Best known as member of Crosby, Stills & Nash and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young. Also member of Buffalo Springfield in 60s and solo artist in 70s. Happy, birthday Stephen!
Elvis Top 5 songs : Fans were asked to vote ahead of what would have been the King of Rock and Roll’s 90th birthday. But all the Top 5 are from the 60s/70s. No classic rock n’roll somgs from the 50s!
Bank ‘to cut interest rates at least four times in 2025’ says the latest Times survey. I think with rising inflation, the Bank will struggle to justify this. 2-3 rate cuts more likely leaving Bank Rate at 4-4.25pc at year-end.
www.thetimes.com/article/5856...
Happy New Year, Phil. Sorry I can’t be more cheerful about the economy.
Happy New Year to all my followers. I don’t expect 2025 to be a good year for the UK economy, however, with very little growth (about 1 percent - half OBR forecast) and inflation above 3 percent for much of the year - due to persistent underlying inflation, the Budget & international uncertainties .
My latest column in The Times today argues that UK Bank Rate should stay in the 4-5 percent range next year and possibly beyond. Hoping for bigger cuts in interest rates would be unrealistic following the Budget. See links below:
www.thetimes.com/article/6451...
Hi Tony, I respect your views on economics - but surely you are not an expert on the management of Trump businesses?
Musk does not manage his businesses. He has other people to do that! He just owns them!
UK inflation rate rises for second month in a row - up from 1.7pc in Sept to 2.6pc in November, nearly 1pc rise in just 2 months. UK inflation heading for over 3pc next year!
Keep interest rates unchanged, says Times shadow MPC. Latest analysis of tomorrow’s interest rate decision in today’s Times. Shadow Committee votes 8-1 to keep Bank Rate at 4.75pc and urges caution about cuts in 2025.
www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...
No, not really. Any boost to real incomes will be short-lived, as inflation will erode the benefit of higher wages.
UK wage increases pick up again - back over 5 percent and 5.4pc in the private sector, which is the key figure for inflation prospects. Very difficult for #MPC to cut interest rates again until pay increases subside significantly.
Sadly, tax reform seems to be totally off the agenda in our political system these days. We have not had a serious tax reformer since Lawson, 35-40 years ago.
Poor behaviour by ReformUK Party: Nigel Farage’s spokesman said he has ‘not taken part in “Behaviour Code Awareness Training” and has no intention of engaging with this woke DEI scheme’ Why not?