Terion Stewart vs. The World. 💪
Of the 223 qualifying college RBs in 2025, Stewart ranks:
✅1st in Missed Tackles Forced/Att
🥺223rd in Yards Before Contact/Att
2026 RB Class: Who creates their own yards vs. who is a product of their O-Line? 🏃💨 🐨
I mostly do stuff on Twitter and Substack!
substack.com/@koalatystat...
👹Week 10 Single Coverage Monsters 👹
These are players who benefit the most from single coverage playing against teams that allow a lot of single coverage
high 🎆BOOM🎆 potential
koalatystats.substack.com/p/nfl-week-1...
NFL Week 10 Analytics Preview: Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value
- FREE Preview of the Germany game
- 2100 people just got this as an email
- Could be a BIG Tight End week
koalatystats.substack.com/p/nfl-week-1...
🎯 Coach, I Was Open - Week 9 🎯
FREE
I go over the players who have been missing out on the most targets all season! DK Metcalf was WIDE OPEN for a TD last week.
www.pff.com/news/fantasy...
NFL Week 8 Analytics Preview: Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value!
- FREE
- 2000+ people just got this as an email
- in depth write ups of most games
koalatystats.substack.com/p/nfl-week-8...
I NEED A HERO - Week 8 Route Based Heroes
- FREE
- Week 7 Predicted TWO TOP FIVE WRS
- 4 Heroes to save your lineups
www.pff.com/news/identif...
COACH, I WAS OPEN - Week 8
- Identified OVERALL WR1s 50% of the year so far
- FREE
- what more do you want?
2025 Season-long Share of Predicted Target leaders pictured below
www.pff.com/news/fantasy...
NFL Week 7 Analytics Preview: Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value
- Hit a +2800 last week!
- its FREE
- I look into EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS WEEK
koalatystats.substack.com/p/nfl-week-7...
I NEED A HERO - Week 7 Route Based Heroes
Step 1: Create the most predictive receiving metric in all of football (PWOPR)
Step 2: Predict Fantasy Points Per Game with it
Step 3: Find the players who need to positively regress
www.pff.com/news/identif...
My FREE 'Coach, I Was Open' model predicted THE WR1 ON THE WEEK
no big deal, no big deal
www.pff.com/news/fantasy...
NFL Week 6 Analytics Preview: Advanced Stats, Predictions, and Hidden Value
- 1900 people just got this as a FREE EMAIL
- Added a new spread model, and schematic advantage model to my analysis
- PWOPR EVERYWHERE
koalatystats.substack.com/p/nfl-week-6...
NFL WEEK 6 I NEED A HERO
- PWOPR is incredibly predictive and stable
- Wan'Dale Robinson already broke out!
- Who else could be on this list?!?!?!?
PWOPR leaders pictured below
FREE WRITE UP ON PFF
www.pff.com/news/identif...
Week 6 Coach, I Was Open!
- Who was open in Week 5 & didn't get the targets they deserved?
- Is throwing it to player's my model says you should throw it to a good thing?
- Who made THE most insane mathematical plays last week?
FREE PFF Article!
www.pff.com/news/fantasy...
I normally post this on Twitter but I deleted it off my phone sooooo here is my FREE article on PFF predicting breakout NFL players in week 5 based on advanced analytics
www.pff.com/news/identif...
The residual is our “offensive coaching” variable
***Note: This is obviously not a perfect representation of coaching, but I do believe it is the best I have personally seen.
Step 3: Take the residual - if you are familiar with statistics, you know the residual of a prediction is everything we could not explain with our model....
Step 2: Predict our new “offense” variable using player skill - I used PFF grades for every position to predict our new PCA’d offense variable.....
How do you quantify NFL offensive coaching?
Step 1: Quantify “offense” - I used Principal Components Analysis on various important offensive metrics like EPA, Yards per Play, Series Conversion Rate, etc.....
🧵
🧮NFL 2025 PROJECTED Play Calling Tendencies🧮
Play calling is VITAL to fantasy and real life outcomes
Using the last 15 years of NFL play-by-play data I created play calling projections for the 2025 season 🐨
Sure does! Elite explosiveness and fantastic production!
I worked very hard on this. I hope you enjoy the Stack post. It is very in depth and hopefully helpful. Please read it and check out the data i shared for FREE.
Please RT this thread, Share it, and like it. Everything here is FREE ❤️ I do it for the love of the game.
2022 (Testing Set):
- Sad Skyy never became a thing
- Wandale truther til the day i die
- Shakir always shows up in every model
2023:
- Puka being dragged down by PFF rank, but still looks like a sleeper here!
- I want Mims to be a thing so bad
- JSN's beast yards are much better than i would guess. good for him
2024:
- Nabers was a slam dunk
- MHJ probably worth a trade if someone is willing to give him up
- Been trying to trade for Troy Franklin since i ran this.
2025:
- Burden's elite sophomore season is a big reason to be optimistic. Great Career
- Tet is basically the same level of prospect as Burden in my model but doesnt have that Sophomore season boosting him
- Egbuka is not loved by my model but PFF rankings are pulling him up
Retweets and tags to people in the dynasty community would be much appreciated. I haven't really started building an audience on Bluesky yet 😅
@samhoppen.bsky.social
@pahowdy.bsky.social
are about all i know lol
I published [almost] all of the data i used to create the model for FREE in this google doc. No one does this except@pahowdy.bsky.social, but hopefully this earns a like and retweet from you <3
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
