That was Labour's first and only local by-election gain since the last set of locals. There have been 214 local by-elections since that point, and Labour have lost 51 of the 68 they were defending - i.e. three quarters. One result is an anecdote. Those are the statistics.
Getting together would be a bad idea. You want diversity in methodology and sample, not homogeneity.
And vice versa
I'm actually pretty surprised that anti Lib Dem sentiment is as low as that amongst Conservative voters. Given the level of contempt for them on conservative home (vs admiration for reform) and the fact they are often in direct competition where they are in contention.
To your knowledge, has anyone attempted a fully Bayesian framework for predicting / reasoning about election results? Alternatively I could imagine some Bayesian extensions to MRP that would allow you to reason about how likely a given result was modelled to be, given the known factors.
Doesn't mean that yougov aren't low on Reform share nationally (they may well be), I just don't think G&D is evidence to support that.
The Con + Reform vote barely changed. But it was very obvious that Reform were the only rw party with a chance. So likely a decent chunk of Tory voters went Reform.
I don't see how you don't see that.
Labour wouldn't in much of a position to negotiate if this result comes in to be fair. And whichever ~40 MPs survive, it would be an almost unrecognisable set of characters in charge.
It's just 1 poll (for now) - but here's how it plays out in the Nowcast Model:
RFM: 227 (+222)
GRN: 135 (+131)
LDM: 92 (+20)
CON: 59 (-62)
SNP: 48 (+39)
LAB: 40 (-371)
PLC: 20 (+16)
Others: 10 (+5)
Ben Walker have you finally had it with Labour? The analysis is spot on, particularly in light of the poll today (obviously just one poll and some luck involved in the exact numbers matching so closely, but nevertheless).
Can I get a nowcast @electionmaps.uk ?
Absolutely spot on. Great article 👏
Latest from me: By dint of its relationship with the trade unions alone, Labour still plays a vital role in our democracy – but it also looks dangerously like an archaic legacy party. Its old majoritarian dreams are over
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Keir Starmer's pledge for no more illegal wars
Never forget.
I'm not necessarily sure about that. London is a bit weird - could conceivably go 25% Green, 25% Labour, 20% Reform, 20% Conservative, 5% Lib Dem, 5% Others I think and still hit the 55-60% left vs. 40-45% right range. Especially with supplementary vote dulling the tactical voting incentive.
2028 feels a *very* long way off. Agreed that the 2026 locals will give a good steer, but there are ~twice as many seats again up in 2027. The whole narrative could be very different by then.
2028 feels a very long way off. Agreed that the 2026 locals will give a good steer, but there are ~twice as many seats again up in 2027. The whole narrative could be very different by then.
This is spot on. I just hope someone at the BBC truly hears it and attempts to bring about the deep structural changes that institution requires.
Yes @london.gov.uk
There will, but I don't think that will dent their appeal. I also think the impact on Lib Dem prospects of resurgent Greens will be relatively low given the disjointedness of constituencies where they are competitive.
A table displaying projected seat totals after the English Local Elections of May 2026. Compared to May 2025, the parties are projected to have the following net movements in seat totals: Labour Party had 6134 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 1696 coucillors to end up with 4438 coucillors. Liberal Democrats had 3197 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 458 coucillors to end up with 3655 coucillors. Conservative and Unionist had 4413 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 833 coucillors to end up with 3580 coucillors. Reform UK had 810 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 1838 coucillors to end up with 2648 coucillors. Independent / Other had 2578 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 5 coucillors to end up with 2573 coucillors. Green Party had 894 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 242 coucillors to end up with 1136 coucillors.
So Greens will likely do MUCH better that this model suggests (particularly as: i. they have underperformed in local by-elections so far; and ii. on the back of increased perceived viability follwoing Gorton & Denton). This will come at Labour's cost. But an interesting first stab nevertheless.
This projection assumes those transfer proportions will be replicated at LE2026. Clearly they won't exactly – the make-up of by-elections since LE2025 has been more rural than the seats which are up at LE2026 – e.g. London is significantly under-represented in those by-elections.
Here's a very basic model. It's not actually based on swing - it's based on proportional seat transfers between parties since LE2025. So e.g. Labour have successfully defended 27% of their council by-elections, and lost 47%, 12%, 6% and 4% to Reform, Greens, Lib Dems and Conservatives respectively.
Exactly. A basic model based on by-elections to date since LE 2025 would also see around 1,500-1,600 losses (out of ~2,000 seats defended). Even if Labour lose all these seats, they would still remain the biggest party of local gov't. But LE2027 is almost twice as big - they could be destroyed.
Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.”
Yes it's a different axis altogether. Contempt and arrogance vs respect and empathy. They don't even have the mental apparatus to see that.
Sorry I was using "your" to refer to the Labour party-line response as expressed in that letter. Should have been clearer. The actions & words of the Labour leadership imply more empathy for those they are losing to Reform than those they are losing to the Greens, for whom they have contempt IMO.
"His people" are largely ex-Labour voters. Your contempt for them fits a wider picture of contempt for a large fraction of your base. I despise Galloway, but that's not the point - your attitude to these voters is the point. And the contrast with your attitude to those who have defected to Reform.
