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Andrew Kydd

@andrewkydd

Political science, game theory, music, wooden boats, vintage airplanes and motorcycles.

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18.11.2024
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Latest posts by Andrew Kydd @andrewkydd

Nothing against KYM but I’m not sure. Trump is extraordinarily vain so does care what people think of him, but he faced no reputational challenges at that point. And his cult of personality is basically immune to information.

11.03.2026 22:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I rather suspect that was their thinking all along.

11.03.2026 14:38 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Motor Monday!
#motorcycles

09.03.2026 11:08 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

But remember, personalist leaders face no audience costs, so he could drop this like a used Kleenex whenever he feels like it.

06.03.2026 17:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the war ends next week. Trump’s going to realize soon that there’s unlikely to be any new noteworthy accomplishments and will pull the plug and send the ships back to the Caribbean to attack Cuba.

06.03.2026 04:34 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I had no idea who he was, but he looked like Bilbo when someone tries to take the ring away from him.

05.03.2026 14:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Has he ever been seen in the same room with Martin Freeman?

05.03.2026 14:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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REPORTER: Yesterday you told us Israel was going to strike Iran and that's why we needed to get involved. But today the president said Iran--

RUBIO: No. Were you there yesterday?

REPORTER: Yes. I asked the question

03.03.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 8925 πŸ” 2205 πŸ’¬ 624 πŸ“Œ 375

Yes, if you are operating as the Air Force for a rebel group in the field. But there’s no rebel group in the field in Iran.

03.03.2026 19:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Keep hearing commentators/Hegseth saying a version of "this is not Iraq, we are not doing nation-building, it's a decapitation, the people will handle it."

That's what Iraq 2003 was supposed to be! Nation-building, de-Baathification, disbanding of Iraqi army, it all came *after* things went wrong.

02.03.2026 14:50 πŸ‘ 384 πŸ” 84 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 14

And so appear random in its timing.

03.03.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
War Is in the Error Term on JSTOR Erik Gartzke, War Is in the Error Term, International Organization, Vol. 53, No. 3 (Summer, 1999), pp. 567-587

And www.jstor.org/stable/2601290

03.03.2026 14:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War | International Organization | Cambridge Core A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War - Volume 70 Issue 4

Start with:

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Paper idea: preventive war model over time, when does declining power attack? With random perturbation to utilities, could be over a fairly broad swath of time.

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The question why now may be fairly random. Trump, Netanyahu, Maduro, Epstein, midterms, ICE raids, all factors.

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Following on Mr. T, I think we may be overly focused on the immediate causes rather than the fundamental one. The US attacked Iran for the same reason we attacked Iraq, we thought they hated us and they wanted nuclear weapons, and we thought we could prevent that at an acceptable cost.

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

[6] The real cause I consider to be the one which was formally most kept out of sight. The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Lacedaemon, made war inevitable.

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

[5] To the question why they broke the treaty, I answer by placing first an account of their grounds of complaint and points of difference, that no one may ever have to ask the immediate cause which plunged the Hellenes into a war of such magnitude.

03.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

As a supporter of the June attack on Iran’s enrichment facilities, let me say I know of no empirical study or historical analogy that suggests that a campaign of air strikes will result in regime change.

28.02.2026 17:07 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

We are so degraded as a republic that we do not even require the public ritual of consulting of legislature before launching a war of choice.

28.02.2026 15:03 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Antonov An-2 photo by Tomek Mazur Aeroklub Gliwicki Antonov An-2 SP-AOB at Gliwice EPGL | Photo by Tomek Mazur

Most viewed photo of the last 24 hours: #Antonov #An-2, #Aeroklub Gliwicki (SP-AOB) photographed by Tomek Mazur (Gliwice) #General Aviation #aviation #daily #planespotting

27.02.2026 01:00 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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To what extent can a U.S-brokered peace framework remain credible when its foundations overlap with an adversary’s negotiating positions? @oxanashevel.bsky.social @tufts.edu Department of Political Science discusses: faculti.net/inside-washi... #Politics #Diplomacy

19.02.2026 19:01 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In my class today on nuclear weapons and world politics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison is a young woman whose father took the same class with me at the University of California-Riverside in 1997. She showed me a picture of his midterm study guide.

26.02.2026 23:56 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œBeginning on his first day in office and continuing for the past year in plain view of the American people, Donald Trump has orchestrated and led a sweeping federal government effort to subvert the midterm elections,” said J. Michael Luttig, a conservative retired federal appeals court judge

26.02.2026 01:14 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Triumph Tuesday.
#motorcycles

24.02.2026 17:40 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Old timers.
#motorcycle

17.02.2026 14:25 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Denmark expands conscription amid tensions with US Denmark is boosting its ranks by lengthening conscription from four to 11 months and making service gender-neutral. The move comes as security worries in Copenhagen increase amid tensions over Greenla...

Excellent video, but how disheartening--and patently surreal-- to see the young citizens of a model ally referencing US threats as a key driver in their desire to serve in their nation's military.

www.dw.com/en/denmark-e...

11.02.2026 20:40 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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When It’s Finally Cold Enough to Race Ice Yachts

When It’s Finally Cold Enough to Race Ice Yachts www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/n...

11.02.2026 18:35 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Madison folks, come support democracy, rage with the Grannies, & groove with my octet, the Subterranean Jazz Project.

www.instagram.com/subterranean...

10.02.2026 23:00 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Sopwith 1½ Strutter photo by Gut Zoltan OK-NUP 01 | Private | Sopwith | 1½ Strutter | LZSL Sliač, Slovakia | Photo by Gut Zoltan

#Sopwith #1½ Strutter, #Private (OK-NUP 01) by Gut Zoltan (#Sliač) #Warbirds (WW2 and before) #aviation #photography #avgeeks

07.02.2026 05:17 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0