Saying the quiet part loud?
Kunal Shah, a senior Goldman Sachs executive, said on a client call that its private capital clients are “glad” that the Iran war is providing a “distraction” from questions over the sector’s exposure to software. as.ft.com/r/e9950538-f...
JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups
www.ft.com/content/389a...
Iran is sending more crude through Hormuz NOW than it was before the war — “showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers.”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Signs that markets *might* be struggling to gauge where UK interest rates will average over the next two years
Amazon in the market today with a blockbuster 11-tranche US dollar bond sale - IFR
includes 30yr, 40yr and 50yr tranches
An inaugural multitranche euro deal could come as early as tomorrow too
www.ifre.com/bonds/239610...
"This story is full of crap from anonymous sources who, I can guarantee, are not in the room with President Trump," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Balyasny, Millennium, Point72 Lose Money in Volatile Markets
"Millennium Management lost about $1.5 billion in the week through March 6... eras[ing] most of the 2% gain the $86.7 billion firm had posted through February this year"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Sounds pretty intense!
NEW: Derivatives volumes smash records on Iran war inflation fears
Investors scrambling to shield themselves against rising bond yields have sent interest rate deriv volumes to record highs
"If the conflict is prolonged then you’re going to see a lot more hedging"
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
This is all OTC. Looks like a lot of it was in forwards and swaps
"A record US$20.1trn of interest rate derivatives notional changed hands last week, according to DTCC data collated by ISDA, roughly twice 2025’s average weekly volumes. "
of course
Most of IFR content is paywalled, particularly anything primary market issuance related
Some of the secondary markets stuff like this is put in front of the paywall
An unprecedented $20.1trn of interest rate derivatives notional changed hands last week
That makes it the busiest week for these markets on record by some distance
"At the end of the day, hedging activity will very much depend on the duration of the conflict."
NEW: Derivatives volumes smash records on Iran war inflation fears
Investors scrambling to shield themselves against rising bond yields have sent interest rate deriv volumes to record highs
"If the conflict is prolonged then you’re going to see a lot more hedging"
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
always enjoy these few precious weeks of the year when Londoners don't have to wait until the absurdly late time of 2.30pm to confirm what US markets think of the world
For all the volatility nerds out there, the VVIX - the volatility of volatility - is at its highest level since September
VIX opened above 35 today for the first time since last April's tariff tantrum
Currently at ~31
And here's some complex technical analysis to go with it
Another ~ 20bp jump in two-year Gilt yields today
Up > 50bp since the Iran conflict began
Now at highest level in nearly a year
Looks like those US job numbers may have helped Gilts catch a sympathy bid
Or maybe the move was just overdone
Either way, 2yr yields *only* 10bp higher on the day now
Italy: I'll see you're 20bp jump, and raise you to 25bp
Just a 20bp jump in the two-year Gilt yield today, totally normal stuff
“These are remarkable moves [in bond markets] and help to mechanically boost inflation expectations higher"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Probably the best way of showing the before/after impact on bond yields of the Iran conflict
Silver lining of markets having had a mini freak out over UK government finances last autumn is that two-year Gilt yields are only back at October levels
Two-year French and Italian yields at highest level in a ~ year
Bond yields on the rise again this morning, led by the short end
Gilts, again, the worst hit
😅
