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Erwan Le Roux

@erwanlrx

Postdoctoral researcher in statistics for climate adaptation @IMT Atlantique, Brest, France

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07.11.2024
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Latest posts by Erwan Le Roux @erwanlrx

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Post doc position in πŸ›°οΈ remote sensing in πŸ‡«πŸ‡·
Join the SAMOUSSA project to study Sargassum in the N.Atl using Meteosat Third Gen & the NEMO-Sarg model.

🎯 Goal: Improve seasonal forecast

Consider applying and joining a dynamic team and discover the wonderful city of Toulouse

πŸ™Thanks for sharing this

20.05.2025 17:58 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Hydrological regime shifts in Sahelian watersheds: an investigation with a simple dynamical model driven by annual precipitation Abstract. The Sahel, the semi-arid fringe south of the Sahara, experienced severe meteorological droughts in the '70s–'80s. Since these droughts, watersheds in the Central Sahel have experienced an in...

πŸ’§ New preprint in the HESS journal

🌍 "Hydrological regime shifts in Sahelian watersheds: an investigation with a simple dynamical model driven by annual precipitation"

πŸ”§ We propose methodological tools to study the timing of past hydrological regime shifts

πŸ”— doi.org/10.5194/egus...

14.05.2025 08:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Abstract EGU25-3836

🎀 FYI tomorrow, I will present at #EGU25 our work

πŸ” "Equation discovery for climate impact: symbolic regression to emulate climate impact indicators for unseen scenarios"

🌊 In the "Machine Learning for Ocean Science" session at 09:25 Room -2.41/42

πŸ”— meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

30.04.2025 10:26 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Deep Convection

PS: I also highly recommend a podcast hosted by Adam Sobel (the author of this paper) which is called DeepConvection deep-convection.org and is available on some podcast platforms

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"The users, or β€œstakeholders,” need not be national governments; they need not be governments at all. Thus, they are a much more diverse set of actors than those who have major roles in mitigation, and this diversity creates many more opportunities to do scientific research in support of adaptation"

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

"Adaptation, on the other hand, is local; unlike mitigation, it is different everywhere"

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

"It will not be solved by advances in climate science, both because existing science is already adequate to justify more action than seems likely, and because the actions under consideration by current (and likely future) political actors are guided by science only, at best, in the loosest way"

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

"It is clear today that the climate mitigation problem is a political one, meaning that it will be solved only by changes in leadership"

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Usable climate science is adaptation science - Climatic Change The author argues that in the present historical moment, the only climate science that is truly usable is that which is oriented towards adaptation, because current policies and politics are so far fr...

Paper suggestion ! πŸŒŽπŸ‘¨πŸ½β€πŸ”¬πŸŽ― Sobel 2021 "Usable climate science is adaptation science"

link.springer.com/article/10.1... (restricted access journal)

05.02.2025 14:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies A growing number of scientists are expressing concerns about the inadequacy of climate change policies. Fewer are questionning the dominant climate modelling paradigm and the IPCC’s success to prevent...

In an Essay just published in PLOS Climate, HervΓ© Douville of @meteofrance.com argues that the climate modelling community should take new approaches to maximise research impact

journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

31.01.2025 09:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Draft chapter outline for IPCC AR7 WGI is now public - *subject to approval* at the plenary, end of Feb

What's new?

Compared to AR6:
-More concise
-greater range of modeling approaches
-chapters span Earth System domains
-considers diverse physical scenarios
/thread/
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager...

28.01.2025 10:58 πŸ‘ 84 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1
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Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels Most European regions regularly experience large snow loads due to large snow accumulations and/or intense snowfalls. In the future, the magnitude of …

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

24.01.2025 09:04 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

New paper ! ❄️ 🌨️ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Evin et al., 2025 "Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels", with my co-authors Guillaume Evin, Elisa Kamir and @smlmrn.bsky.social

#Snow #Extreme #Climate

authors.elsevier.com/a/1kUDU,3mSS...

24.01.2025 07:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Strongly agree that "clearer, more specific language to describe the phenomena labelled as tipping points" is needed, due to all the existing definitions

Here is an illustration (for a bistable model) of "my definition" so far:

References: arxiv.org/abs/1103.0169
www.nature.com/articles/350...

03.12.2024 20:31 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Excellent, as always - from @bobkopp.net et al

In addition, we don't say often enough that though there may be tipping _elements_, there's little evidence to date for global scale tipping points.

Best understanding remains that we warm as much as we cumulatively emit. No more, no less.

03.12.2024 17:59 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Bias Correction in Climate Studies - Sciencesconf.org

Dear colleagues, it is our pleasure to announce the β€œ3rd Workshop on Bias Correction in Climate Studies” that will take place from May 26 to May 28, 2025 at Mines Paris – PSL, 60 boulevard Saint-Michel, Paris (France)

03.12.2024 11:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Robustness of AI-based weather forecasts in a changing climate Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a ...

First post on @bsky.app πŸŽ‰:

Can #AI-based weather forecasting models (trained on present-day data) provide skillful forecasts also in different colder and warmer states of the climate system?

Our preprint in arxiv explores this question:
doi.org/10.48550/arX...

Here is what we found so far (🧡1/7)

02.12.2024 09:31 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4
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The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized ...

New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD.

Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.

ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

19.11.2024 14:00 πŸ‘ 114 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 1