perceives the current war as an existential threat to its very existence (which isn’t irrational from the perspective of regime insiders) then this could be its strategy rather than simply ‘pull the grenades and burn everything down.’

It’s also not out of the realm of possibility the strategy is to deplete gulf anti-missile stocks in a war of attrition. In said war 🇮🇷 really could significantly impose enormous damage that really could change their behavior going forward. This would be at enormous cost to 🇮🇷 itself. But if 🇮🇷

Relatedly (and more likely IME than just no strategy at all) the IRGC could have been sufficiently impaired by the strikes on Saturday there is no way for it to effectively coordinate & we have localized elements just taking it upon themselves not in accordance w/ any overarching coordinated aims.

This assumes there is a strategy being acted upon in the first place. We should assume that actors are acting (what they perceive as) rationally & not just emotionally responding. But this isn’t always the case!

And there is a similar kind of justification that 🇮🇷 can cite (mainly to itself) for the attacks on gulf. They all host 🇺🇸 military installations. 🇮🇷 hates this. 🇮🇷 wants to use this opportunity of war to try to alter the calculus inside gulf about doing so (again I think counterproductively).

In the case of say Azerbaijan - it is my assumption (and this is based on reports published by think thanks & discussed by analysts) that 🇦🇿 is a staging ground (whether willingly or unwillingly) of 🇮🇱 actions in 🇮🇷. And 🇮🇷 is seeking to impose a cost (I think counterproductively) of allowing this.

I say this without in any ways condoning the Iranian regime or its current strategy in this war - but I don’t think it’s clearly a ‘pulled-pin’ grenade strategy.

While it would be an abusive but (IME) constitutionally legal directive to order the DFC to underwrite maritime insurance policies - doing so in a quantity that would result in its RBC (a measure of potential liabilities) surpassing its congressionally appropriated budget is an interesting legal ?

The DFC would be signing itself to be on the hook for truly gigantic losses. And who are we kidding here - I don’t seriously believe this would be done in accordance with traditional RBC guidelines/regs that insurance companies adhere. For one that would take an act of Congress.

I do feel compelled to point out as it is very much not exactly the expertise of the DFC to be underwriting maritime insurance policies. That goes for under normal circumstances. And we are very much NOT in normal circumstances.

That being said I want to give credit where credit is due & tip my metaphorical cap to the 😡 admin here for their creative fix to what is definitely a global concern (I do this while condemning its actions & holding it absolutely responsible for this mess of their own making in the first place).

The cynic in me wants to point out that I’m old enough to remember when GOP was extremely hostile to the existence of institutions like the EX/IM Bank & the DFC. And that Trumpworld in particular raged on & on about US provision of public goods bc of global free riding of said goods.

The Government contends that § 1159(a) provides them with arrest-and- detention power and that such power is necessary to prevent refugees from skipping 2 CASE 0:26-cv-00417-JRT-DLM Doc. 133 Filed 02/27/26 Page 3 of 66 town before they have been adjusted to lawful permanent resident status. The Government’s position flatly contradicts the plain meaning of § 1159(a) and contravenes forty-five years of agency practice. Section 1159(a) did not give the Government this authority when Congress passed this provision in 1980, and it does not give the Government the authority to do so now. Decades ago, as a nation, we made a solemn promise to refugees fleeing persecution: that after rigorous vetting, they would be welcomed to the United States and given the opportunity to rebuild their lives. We assured them that they could care for their families, earn a living, contribute to their communities, and live in peace here in the United States. We promised them the hope that one day they could achieve the American Dream. The Government’s new policy breaks that promise—without congressional authorization—and raises serious constitutional concerns. The new policy turns the refugees’ American Dream into a dystopian nightmare. Until the Court can resolve those issues on the merits, it will not allow federal authorities to cast aside the commitment made to those who were vetted, admitted, and came to this country in reliance on our word

Amen Judge Tunheim storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Yeah that’s my sense from reading the thoughts of those that are cross-asset or equities specific. Without cheating & taking a peek if I’m not mistaken 5s yielded a healthy premium over cash/bills. That’s no longer the case so I’m not anticipating further outperformance from the belly.

Not every purchase of treasuries is an affirmative reflection of one’s outlook for the performance of the US economy over x unit of time. Some absolutely are! Many are very much not.

If a cross-asset analyst told me they had developed a relatively bearish view on equities (due to software concerns from AI, overspend, etc…) & asked say last month where on the tsy curve to park $ I’d have said “I’m uncomfortable w/ long-dated bonds. 5s are kind of at a sweet spot atm”

The problem is for people who aren’t home owners. For these people home ownership feels really really unattainable. So for a majority of people it’s not a personal concern. But for people it is a concern it is one of very high intensity & salience.

Not really. We’re a society where most are home owners and for many home owners their home feels affordable bc they are likely paying a mortgage they could always afford and/or paying less than they were at one time bc of the low interest rates on ‘20-‘21. Also elderly that already have 100 % eq.

I really do not know what fair value is supposed to be or what BRL would trade at relative to the USD if transactions were only conducted by omniscient actors acting fully rationally & not motivated by fear/emotion…but I agree there is a strong case for BRL (& COL) to appreciate vs the USD.

I fall back on high real interest rates & positive CA (trending to even higher in the medium/long term). I chalk up BRLs divergence to its truly worrisome gov deficit (it is unjustifiable in a non-emergency & not at all sustainable) & locals not liking left of center Presidents (see COP).

I’m not a very big fan of the concept of fair value when assessing the relative value between different currencies (a belief you acknowledge many people share!) & wary of anchoring to a specific price at a specific time in the past…but there is a good argument to be made about BRL undervaluation.

That was some 4th quarter & OT. Go Blue

Also one of the principal benefactors of the poison machine (the term used by Israeli academics) that has been, for lack of a better term, poisoning Israeli political culture & broader society by normalizing unabashed bigotry & illiberal political thought.

Yeah I can understand not wanting to avail yourself to the abuse that would inevitably entail from doing so.

Have you written anywhere about your experiences (I’m assuming you are allowed to!) I read Tibon & Birnbaum’s post-mortem when it came out and some interviews with Ashrawi but I’d be interested in reading more from the perspectives of any principles involved.

And he advocates the state operate according to this principle.

Most convincingly he was a driving force behind the nation state law - Bibi was prodded into it to protect his right flank. Bennett, explicitly, for many many years, has championed the idea that Israel is the nation state of its Jewish citizens, not all of its citizens.

enable further disenfranchising & dispossessing Palestinians on both sides of the green line; he was doing so long before Bibi was charged w/ corruption nor did he have any interest in rocking the right-haredi political alliance.

But going back to Bennett this is his reflecting his true self. His first political office (in his own right) was as head of the Yesha council. He sat comfortably for a decade in multiple parties with the likes of Smotrich & Strook. He long championed judicial reform bc it will explicitly

Ultimately this behavior not only fails to achieve its stated goals of expanding its voter base but it does precisely the opposite in the long run.