IntelAssess

Given the ICAO hex addresses and indicated ground speed I'm of the impression that they're Bayraktar TB2s.

Just got to this. Curiously, this is the standard AEW&C orbit that we’ve been seeing since January of this year. It’s a 25mile radius orbit over nearly the same center point. Notice in your image that the bottom edge of the orbit has a secondary arc orbit suggesting a specific operational intent.

Almost all of their AEW&C flights over land are at 22,625’.

I’d like to see the sole source justification for that decision.

Looks an awful lot (let’s say identical) to an air vehicle that I’m quite familiar with including the embedded antennas in the ‘cheeks’. I’m thinking that they might have just copied the feature not knowing what they were. We’ve seen this before with other aircraft copies.

Thanks much. I’ve been following for 5 years now and they’re always surprising as you say. See my post today for a FR24 peek at their WZ-9 in the air off Hainan Island. 55,800’ 400+ kts!!!

Likely Chinese Shenyang YZ-9 Divine Eagle HALE UAV ‘TESTFID’ ICAO hex #783162 observed in the air earlier today (3rd day in a row) operating at 55,800’ ~428kts out of Ledong Naval Air Base, Hainon Island. The YZ-9 is an airborne early warning sensor truck ~2X the size of the US RQ-4B Global Hawk.

Across the 28 day study period I was unable to positively identify any commercial, civil or civilian aircraft using these air traffic corridors. They appear (to me) to be restricted to Chinese military (PLA) use only.

China Drills Near Taiwan are ‘Rehearsals’ for Forced Reunification, Paparo Says - USNI News China’s escalating military demonstrations of force toward Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification with the mainland, the United States’ top military commander in the ...

10/10 -Summary: The USNI reports ‘China’s escalating military demonstrations of force toward Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification with the mainland’. Lastly, much thanks to @vcdgf555.bsky.social for the consult and advice.
news.usni.org/2025/02/17/c...

9/10 There were (3) instances of an air vehicle using the callsign GNDTEST (#123456) with a reported altitude of ‘0’ in the Taiwan Strait. These routes are shown in green below. Reported ground speeds varied from 150 to 220 kts. Its unknown what this a/v might be. [DM me with your thoughts on this].

8/10 Flights within the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea were also identified. Most flights remained on the Chinese side of the Median Line. (1) KJ-500 flight (JUN30475) on 2 Feb was identified ~100miles off the southern tip of Taiwan. Another (unknown a/c) was identified ~50miles off Taiwan.

7/10 Open circle end-points on flight paths indicate where a/c first appeared on FR24. Closed circles represent where a/c fell off FR24 coverage. These points can be used to identify other air corridors such as ‘on and off ramps’ where a/c entered/exited the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.

6/10 Flying at ~26K’ the AESA radar of the KJ-500 has a range of 720km against fighter-sized a/c at ~33K’. Using the center of the East orbit area as the starting point & drawing a circle with a radius of 720km yields the radar range circle shown in purple which envelopes the entire Taiwan ADIZ.

5/10 Uniquely, KJ-500 JUN30475 which appeared to be based out of Jinjiang AB as evidenced by its observed take-offs and climb outs, participated in the West KJ-500 orbit area. Also, uniquely, a/c in the East orbit relieved each other on station to maintain an extended on-station orbit persistence.

4/10 (2) KJ-500 orbit areas (on either side of the N/S Mahuiling Air Base corridor) were identified. KJ-500s in the West orbit were comprised (w/one exception) of a/c from Mahuiling AB. The KJ-500 East orbit represented a composite orbit as it included KJ-500’s from Mahuiling AB as well as others.

3/10 ALL a/c moving west-to-east/east-to-west followed the same air corridor (heading of 226° S/W, 46° N/E at a distance of ~130 miles parallel to Taiwan). A second air corridor used exclusively by KJ-500’s transiting from/to Mahuiling AB (heading 357° N/E, 178° S/W) is also evident.

2/10 During the study period (18) aircraft (a/c) were observed conducting 42 sorties. At least (9) of the 18 a/c were Special Mission types: (5) KJ-500 AEW&C; (3) KQ-200 ASW; and at least (1) Y-8 EW. Of the remaining a/c one was a Y-20A transport. The rest are unknown to me. [DM me if you know].

🧵1/10 Using FlightRadar24 data, Chinese military flights in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait for the period 15 Jan-14 Feb (2025) were accumulated & plotted onto Google Earth as a means to visualize and interpret missions/sorties occurring over time across the study period.

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30476’ with ICAO hex address #7A43F1, out of Mahuiling Air Base (26th Div, 76th Reg) observed earlier today heading s/b from its home base, then s/w down the 'boulevard' before turning into the Taiwan Strait. Track suggests poss heading to the South China Sea.

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30471’, ICAO address #7A4299 observed earlier today on a track parallel to Taiwan (at a distance of ~200km/~125miles) and the Taiwan Strait at an altitude of ~16,250’ at ~266kts. JUN30471 repeated this commonly used n/s course 5 times before falling off FR24.

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30475’ (#7A43F0) and ‘JUN30472’ (#7A43ED) as well as Y-8 Electronic Warfare (EW) aircraft #78C5AC observed earlier today tracking southward along the southern coastal China corridor and falling off FR24 before turning east to enter the Taiwan Strait.

Here’s a better perspective of the mission sortie of the PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30475’, ICAO address #7A43F0 as observed from start to time now. Obviously Taiwan is the center of interest for this sortie. Not shown but also participating are EW a/c #78C5AC and KJ-500 a/c JUN30470.

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30475’, ICAO address #7A43F0 observed earlier transiting the n/s boulevard (pic 1) next appearing in the South China Sea at the southern tip of Taiwan (pic 2) then re-entering the boulevard transiting n/b before turning e/b into the Taiwan Strait (pic 3).

Bangladesh Army Bayraktar TB2 UAV 'TB2T1071' invalid ICAO hex #000001 observed earlier today operating just east of Babuchara, Bangladesh at an altitude of 13,775' at 126kts. The Army UAVs are operated by the 67th UAV Regiment "Swift & Deadly" based out of BAF Base Zahurul Haque, Chittagong .

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30475’, ICAO address #7A43F0 observed earlier today on a track parallel to Taiwan (at a distance of ~200km/~125miles) and the Taiwan Strait at an altitude of ~17,945’ at ~260kts. JUN30475's course represents a 'boulevard' commonly used by special mission a/c.

Unknown Chinese military aircraft call sign ’GNDTEST’ & ICAO hex address #123456 observed operating in the Taiwan Strait earlier today displaying an altitude of 0’ at 0 kts!! Its course parallels the Taiwan coast at a distance of ~100km/~60miles. Thisone is keeping me up at night!!

Nigerian Air Force (NAF) CASC Wing Loong-II UAV 'RAPTOR', invalid ICAO hex address #A00000 observed on approach to NAF Base Maiduguri earlier today. Maiduguri is home to Air Task Force Operation Lafiya Dole HQ as well as the 109 Combat Reconnaissance Group (CRG) from which the UAVs operate.

PLAAF Shaanxi KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft ’JUN30470’, ICAO address #7A4298 observed earlier today on a track parallel to Taiwan (at a distance of ~200km/~125miles) and the Taiwan Strait at an altitude of ~20,650’ at ~274kts. JUN30470's course represents a 'boulevard' commonly used by special mission a/c.

Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) Bayraktar TB2 UAV 'AU703' ICAO hex #00125F, Reg #UAT03, observed earlier today operating over northwest of Ifuru Island. Altitude 15,430' at 97kts. The Bayraktar TB2s operate out of Maafaru International Airport which can be observed by following its track.

Indian Air Force Hermes-2 MALE UAV '4XUMI' ICAO hex #000704, Reg #268, observed earlier today operating over the Pir Panjal Range, Jammu and Kashmir. 4XUMI is operating out of Awantipur AFS, 3005 Squadron, "Wardens of the North", Western CMD.