Call me a doomer but I think we are definitely in "more likely than not" territory
The fundamental fact is the guy is a one-way ratchet. He can only escalate
Given his reluctance to commit to a proper ground invasion, he will try to use the biggest weapon he has to get Iran to submit
Yes. The Obama coalition is dead and not enough people realize it.
Have you heard of Cannae? Austerlitz? Hastings? Those generals were morons.
You can't make me do it!
Clinton was also governor of AR. Not a giant state but legitimate executive experience
Unfortunately "you can just do things" has become justification for the worst people to completely ignore shame and the consequences of their actions
The original target audience was people who were paralyzed by anxiety
The lesson? Advice has waaaay more to do with the giver than the listener
The categorical imperative is making a comeback in Woke 2
As someone who shares your worries... Can you share what measures you've taken?
I appreciate your levelheadedness. IMO this is a bad economic shock, and the way we've started and conducted this war is shameful, but it is not the literal end of the world
YOU DON't REMEMBER
BUT IIIIIII DOOOOOOO
You could've said the same about Hitler. Wriggled out of jams over and over until Stalingrad
One of my all-time favorite books. Jackall's story about how he got embedded in the companies was super interesting as well. Unsurprisingly, most corporations don't want a sociologist poking around into how their management operates
Vividly remember staying up late watching MARGIN CALL after Liberation Day
Guess we're running it back
Congrats to her and I'm sorry in advance
THE ONLY THING - Sufjan Stevens
I could not stand the Manousos subplot and stopped watching at E7
Seemed like a cool concept at first but ran out of things to say
Wait wait this on top of the OpenAI lady? Nick lore is crazy
THE IDIOT by Yorgos Lanthimos
MASON & DIXON by PTA
JR by Benny Safdie
Always has been.
More people need to be saying this
If we're doing Mahan discourse now, all I remember is we have to cross the T. Remember Jutland!
Cofermented coffee / natural wine
Both are bad for the same reasons.
Great piece and thanks for linking to Myers. I forget where I picked this neologism up, but sentences that fulfill Easy Promise have been dubbed "deepities".
Took ours down yesterday 😅
The repeated "in which" inside the em dash is sending me
Hate to be a pedant, but it is "We Learn Nothing". Kreider is great, though.
I genuinely think resentment due to direct access to the lives of the very rich has turned people insane
Unfortunately there is no way to do a short form video ban
What kind of normally intelligent and competent person gets into the crackhead Uber? Sadly, the answer is “far more people than you might think.” People that consider themselves to be savvy insiders. People cynical enough to downplay what Trump uniquely contributes to particular crises. People that alternate between “there’s nothing to worry about” and “there’s nothing that can be done” when it becomes clear that there was something to worry about. People that fashionably look down on others with sincere object-level political opinions. People that, when faced with an alarming and disturbing situation with lots of uncertainty and free parameters, tell themselves pleasant little fictions about what could happen next. The resemblance to people that downplayed the virus is not accidental, because the cumulative errors of critical reasoning are very similar.
In the immortal words of @aelkus.bsky.social.... YOUR CRACKHEAD UBER HAS ARRIVED.
Worth reading again.
aelkus.github.io/problem/2020...
Just about nothing I can say that is not a TOS violation at this point
