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Istvan Hajnal

@istvanhajnal

Statistics, data science, market research, Elvis Costello, bass, Ipsos, media research, audience measurement. Boutersem-Amsterdam

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Latest posts by Istvan Hajnal @istvanhajnal

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time traveler from 12 months from now just sent me this

27.02.2026 21:25 πŸ‘ 1618 πŸ” 206 πŸ’¬ 65 πŸ“Œ 34

A useful thing about MoltBook is that it provides a visceral sense of how weird a "take-off" scenario might look if one happened for real

MoltBook itself is more of an artifact of AI shared roleplaying (not new), but it gives people a vision of the world where things get very strange, very fast.

31.01.2026 06:34 πŸ‘ 137 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 2
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Moltbook is the most interesting place on the internet right now The hottest project in AI right now is Clawdbot, renamed to Moltbot, renamed to OpenClaw. It’s an open source implementation of the digital personal assistant pattern, built by Peter Steinberger …

I wrote about Clawdbot/Moltbot/OpenClaw and Moltbook, the fascinating, weird and sometimes even useful social network for digital assistants to swap tips and gossip with each other simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/...

30.01.2026 16:45 πŸ‘ 250 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 27
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a close up of a man in a suit and tie with a question mark on his neck . ALT: a close up of a man in a suit and tie with a question mark on his neck .

Sorry, I just got a minute to look at the Moltbook thing.

There are 50,501 agents out there? Right now? That have Moltbook accounts now? Since this morning?

30.01.2026 23:00 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1
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When ChatGPT Broke an Entire Field: An Oral History | Quanta Magazine Researchers in β€œnatural language processing” tried to tame human language. Then came the transformer.

www.quantamagazine.org/when-chatgpt...

19.01.2026 09:03 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Heard a lad earlier talking about β€˜Belgian whistles’

β€œA basic website costs 10k or 25k upwards if you want all the Belgian whistles”

BELGIAN WHISTLES

15.01.2026 16:33 πŸ‘ 3233 πŸ” 711 πŸ’¬ 157 πŸ“Œ 173
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Europe Europe is experiencing a crisis of digital autonomy. Our dependence on US big tech has been growing for decades and is now nearly total, at a time when worries about our former ally are no longer theo...

In a recent FT article, the director of Cybersecurity Belgium claimed it was impossible to store data within the EU. "Dream on" he said. This reflects the widespread lack of IT understanding among executives, who should wise up & help us regain our digital autonomy: berthub.eu/articles/pos...

10.01.2026 11:23 πŸ‘ 243 πŸ” 73 πŸ’¬ 22 πŸ“Œ 4
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From dbhub.ai/blog/state-o....
#MCP #postgres #Database #ai #LLM

07.01.2026 10:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Epstein files merch out now!

21.12.2025 12:18 πŸ‘ 38 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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GitHub - DGoettlich/history-llms: Information hub for our project training the largest possible historical LLMs. Information hub for our project training the largest possible historical LLMs. - DGoettlich/history-llms

How did people in 1913 see the world? Scientists trained LLMs exclusively on pre-1913 textsβ€”no Wikipedia, no 20/20. The model literally doesn't know of WWI. And it reflects spirit of the times without guardrails reflecting modern-day sensitivities.

This is a terrific research application of LLMs.

19.12.2025 20:58 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Joe Ely van de Flatlanders is overleden. Kut nieuws indeed.

#JoeEly #Flatlanders #RIP

17.12.2025 09:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 SynthNet is out 🚨
Researchers propose new constructs and measures faster than anyone can track. We (@anniria.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci) built a search engine to check what already exists and help identify redundancies; indexing 74,000 scales from ~31,500 instruments in APA PsycTests. 🧡1/3

26.11.2025 11:42 πŸ‘ 158 πŸ” 86 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
John Fox: Books and Software

#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca

28.11.2025 15:26 πŸ‘ 202 πŸ” 66 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 10
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When I worked for Obama, I advised him on how to talk to Russian leaders. I never gave the Kremlin advice on how to talk to Obama (and I talked to Ushakov many times!).

26.11.2025 17:33 πŸ‘ 3018 πŸ” 768 πŸ’¬ 101 πŸ“Œ 24

and shouldn't "date joined" be January 1933?

23.11.2025 23:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Because @laurewynants.bsky.social and @benvancalster.bsky.social do no get on here much #DataScience #MachineLearning #MissingData #Imputation #Rstats #Python #AI journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

23.11.2025 14:08 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Idd, al haalt men er nog steeds te pas of te onpas Habermas bij 😎.
#SomeThingsNeverChange

17.11.2025 20:06 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Het verbaast me dat journalisten en academici Raoul Hedebouw hiermee gewoon laten wegkomen. In @deafspraaktv mocht Hedebouw, beweren dat β€œwe” twee tot zes keer meer uitgeven aan wapens dan de Russen (zie fragment [link.mp4]) #RaoulHedebouw #PVDA #deafspraak #deafspraakopvrijdag #Rusland /1

16.11.2025 12:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Het is betreurenswaardig dat journalisten hier geen tegenwicht aan bieden. /EINDE

16.11.2025 12:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Kortom, Hedebouw herhaalt hier een klassiek Russisch β€œtalking point”. Dit soort populistische verdraaiingen blijft bij een deel van het publiek hangen en ondermijnt de steun voor landen zoals OekraΓ―ne. /8

16.11.2025 12:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Europese defensiebudgetten vloeien voor een groot deel naar hoge westerse lonen, pensioenlasten, R&D, regulering en administratie. De output is dus totaal niet vergelijkbaar. /7

16.11.2025 12:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Het Russische budget gaat rechtstreeks naar oorlogsmiddelen zoals munitie, artillerie, drones, raketten, enzovoort. /6

16.11.2025 12:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Daarbovenop, door de koopkrachtpariteit koopt Rusland met hetzelfde nominale bedrag twee tot drie keer zoveel militair materiaal als een Europees land. /5

16.11.2025 12:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Eén euro die in Rusland aan defensie wordt uitgegeven, levert veel meer materiële capaciteit op dan één euro in Europa. Wapens, munitie, voertuigen, brandstof en lonen worden grotendeels lokaal geproduceerd en tegen veel lagere kosten. /4

16.11.2025 12:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Rusland besteedt naar schatting 6 Γ  7% van zijn BBP aan militaire uitgaven. In de meeste Europese landen ligt dat rond 2%. Bovendien draait Rusland vandaag duidelijk op een oorlogseconomie, terwijl Europa dat niet doet. /3

16.11.2025 12:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

In de context van het programma zou β€œwe” zelfs als BelgiΓ« geΓ―nterpreteerd kunnen worden, maar goed, hij bedoelde allicht Europa of de NAVO. Maar ook dan klopt de uitspraak niet. /2

16.11.2025 12:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Het verbaast me dat journalisten en academici Raoul Hedebouw hiermee gewoon laten wegkomen. In @deafspraaktv mocht Hedebouw, beweren dat β€œwe” twee tot zes keer meer uitgeven aan wapens dan de Russen (zie fragment [link.mp4]) #RaoulHedebouw #PVDA #deafspraak #deafspraakopvrijdag #Rusland /1

16.11.2025 12:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Woo, the post is on Data Elixir! It's a really great data science newsletter if you are looking for one!

dataelixir.com

12.11.2025 21:58 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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A Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of the Effect of Clustering Respondents Within Households on Standard Errors Imagine you’re in a meeting and need to quickly explain how clustering respondents within households affects the length of a confidence interval, but you don’t have a computer handy.

I wrote a blogpost on clustering respondents within households, and how you can derive a simple rule of thumb for estimating the effect that has on standard errors.
open.substack.com/pub/istvanha...

#DataScience #Statistics #Survey #Methodology

07.11.2025 14:30 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I wrote a short LinkedIn article about the Law of Truely Large Numbers (not to be confused with the law of large numbers), Bart De Wever and Ordinal variables.

Enjoy!

lnkd.in/ehKjiFmS

#DataScience #Politics #BDW #Belgium

29.10.2025 14:31 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0