5/ important note: in a high oil price scenario, countries that produce lots of oil are NOT necessarily protected from effects of high oil prices. If your country’s oil industry is a commercial one that is allowed to export & not under heavy state control, yr citizens pay the global price tra la
After a short pause, these parties will then start braying about black holes and maxxed out credit cards and demanding cuts to the justice system, or the prisons, or social care or whatever.
EU competition + climate chief Ribera - Spain's commissioner in Brussels - on her boss VDL's comments about on rules-based order
"It is fair to say that maybe it was not the most adequate manner to express herself - but yes she is fully committed to the international order"
6/ "🇵🇭 Philippines has said it will shorten the work week for government offices to save energy
🇧🇩 Bangladesh has limited the illuminated decorations festooning streets during the holy month of Ramadan. They’ve also shut fertilizer production"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
you're right..corrected the 'faster' bit in text. I mistakenly translated earlier 'third quarter' announcements I saw to september/autumn in my head, v dumb dumb. will keep post up as token of shame.
thank the gods..
@tinekestrik.bsky.social on migration: "This far-right proposal will lead to human rights violations, lawsuits and huge costs.
The proposal will now go to the plenary. Let us hope that the Christian Democrats will reflect and repent."
from yesterday, "Europe’s response to Monday’s oil surge was anything but unified. Some officials called for a faster shift to clean energy, while others wanted to import more oil and gas from other places," for @euobserver.com
'The letter signed by 100 European companies and investors rebuffs the anti-emissions trading push from governments and the chemicals lobby, showing that not all European firms are aligned on weakening carbon pricing' for @euobserver.com
a picture of a huge, low, heavy cloud of black oil over Tehran
This is the cloud of oil currently hovering over Tehran, released when the US bombed the city's oil depots. A stew of particulate matter, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, benzene, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, heavy metals & volatile organic compounds is raining down into the city right now. 1/2
New article out in Climate Policy with @james7jackson.bsky.social: "Subsidizing global decarbonization: how Chinese state support for clean technologies enables and (potentially) obstructs a worldwide green transition."
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Anything more than a few weeks — and an exit plan looks increasingly difficult — fiscal policy is going to be part of the response. That means figuring out the balance between higher debt, higher tax and debt management.
Probably good to start thinking about it now.
www.ft.com/content/56a0...
Potgrond op basis van turf heeft een verwoestende impact op het milieu. Drie jaar geleden sprak de industrie af daar iets aan te gaan doen. Nu trekt de enige betrokken milieuorganisatie zich alsnog teleurgesteld terug.
Mijn verhaal in @trouw.nl vandaag:
www.trouw.nl/duurzaamheid...
So we are back to discussing (indirect) subsidies for imported gas - hoping the EU consumer wins. In reality everyone - except the LNG-exporters - loses:
The rates market deeply dislikes $90 oil
great chart by @raydouglas.bsky.social
Global bonds slump as Iran war upsets rate-cut bets
www.ft.com/content/d0b4...
In 2022 the initial response to energy shock was more clean power. But the inflationary shock that followed had the opposite effect: it empowered “realists” who weaponised the cost-of-living crisis against rapid decarbonisation + shield fossil incumbents
Perhaps things will be different this time 🤷
China’s top semiconductor executives have called for a nationwide push to build a domestic alternative to Dutch chip-equipment giant ASML, urging the industry to “abandon illusions and prepare for struggle” amid US sanctions.
Elke euro in de energietransitie vergroot onze strategische autonomie. Daarom ben ik heel blij dat deze week mijn voorstel samen met collega's is aangenomen voor het versnellen van extra wind op zee voor 1 miljoen huishoudens. Wij bouwen het echte alternatief.
www.tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken...
Text excerpt from NYT article linked in second skeet saying: “Most of the profits are flowing to the very affluent Americans, who are not subject to this cost-of-living crisis anyway because they’re so rich. They’re getting richer, and everyone else is dealing with inflation,” said Gregor Semieniuk, associate professor of University of Massachusetts Amherst who led the study. The United Kingdom responded to fossil fuel companies’ bumper year by adding a windfall tax designed to capture some of the excess profits and use the money to ease the burden on households facing higher bills. Semieniuk’s team calculated what would have happened if the U.S. government redistributed the portion of the fossil fuel industry’s 2022 profits that exceeded its 2021 returns. They found that the move would send $1,715 to every American household, which, they argued, could have helped ease the burden of inflation on lower-income households.
![Text excerpt from the FT article in the second skeet saying:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/.
https://www.ft.com/content/43fe2f44-d3ea-45c9-a641-e6f0e68949af?accessToken=zwAAAZy4l4RPkc9D_i9E0-pFydOmQebw5olJrw.MEUCIH4nsXTramXEOh6tWM6n9rrMqI0FnMfHQsz7tU0HufXAAiEAx8x5MmOYujURIqdhdxGDYHysYSEB2eVuSpM9n1iDuhA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=a96149bb-d68a-4bc5-b023-2174a60fd9c5
Research on the oil and gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that the gains of the boon on energy producers were not equally shared.
The wealthiest 1 per cent of the US population eventually received more than 50 per cent of energy companies’ windfall from that particular surge in prices, according to a paper published in September 2025.
“If anything [the US has] become a more powerful exporter and producer of fossil fuels since 2022. And of course, their oil majors are active globally. So I think [US shareholders] are poised to take advantage even more [now],” said Gregor Semieniuk, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who was one of the authors of the research. “Wealth distributions don’t change overnight.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zzkt72yllokx7rstuph6rlrw/bafkreigrlauo2i24owltmckxgpdt4gyzzwwu6hvotpslz57hqdbodogxba)
Text excerpt from the FT article in the second skeet saying: Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/. https://www.ft.com/content/43fe2f44-d3ea-45c9-a641-e6f0e68949af?accessToken=zwAAAZy4l4RPkc9D_i9E0-pFydOmQebw5olJrw.MEUCIH4nsXTramXEOh6tWM6n9rrMqI0FnMfHQsz7tU0HufXAAiEAx8x5MmOYujURIqdhdxGDYHysYSEB2eVuSpM9n1iDuhA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=a96149bb-d68a-4bc5-b023-2174a60fd9c5 Research on the oil and gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that the gains of the boon on energy producers were not equally shared. The wealthiest 1 per cent of the US population eventually received more than 50 per cent of energy companies’ windfall from that particular surge in prices, according to a paper published in September 2025. “If anything [the US has] become a more powerful exporter and producer of fossil fuels since 2022. And of course, their oil majors are active globally. So I think [US shareholders] are poised to take advantage even more [now],” said Gregor Semieniuk, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who was one of the authors of the research. “Wealth distributions don’t change overnight.”
Who stands to profit as energy prices are rising due to the escalating war in the Middle East? NYT and FT quoting our research on the 2022 energy crisis! Spoiler: in the West it's mainly affluent shareholders.
High time to dust off the discussions on excess profit taxes & strategic price controls.
1/3: Here's what wild about gas prices right now. The past two days have seen the largest increase in gas prices ($0.22/gallon) since 2005, making it one of the fastest increases ever. What's suprising about this is not only the magnitude, but the speed of the passthrough.
Gas prices are surging again after the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and talk of ECB rate hikes returned this week.
Before repeating 2022-2023, it’s worth revisiting what actually happened during the last energy shock and how the ECBs crisis policies played out.
Geen woord over hernieuwbaar. @nieuws.nos.nl kiest voorspelbaar voor het frame van uiterst rechts en van fossiel.
Crucial point. Supply shocks require a fiscal not monetary response.
Gas prices are surging again after the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and talk of ECB rate hikes returned this week.
Before repeating 2022-2023, it’s worth revisiting what actually happened during the last energy shock and how the ECBs crisis policies played out.
This is the way.
And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.
So this is the Reverse Deng: if Chinese EV or battery companies want to setup shop in Europe and capitalise from state support, participate in public procurement contracts, they must meet 4 of those 6 criteria.
Scribbled down my thoughts on oil and gas price shock, rate hikes, windfall profits and transition risks here.
Fascinating stuff: confirms Chinese investment now mainly target new EV/battery factories in EU. Described as “low tech transfer” supply hubs these are mostly aimed at assembly, not adding much local value, that sidestep EU duties. CATL in Spain promises tech sharing, but hard evidence is scarce.
Scribbled down my thoughts on oil and gas price shock, rate hikes, windfall profits and transition risks here.
