There’s a degree of exaggeration, however.
China’s strategic and commercial oil reserves should cover demand for two-three months, which is kinda normal (not hyperstrategic as the former DoS official implies).
The Japan “baseball” visit by Taiwan’s Premier implies that Takaichi is fully cognizant of her actions and, maybe, statements.
“However, it would be wise to refrain from actions that could be perceived by China as provocative.” 👇
（社説）台湾の要人来日 妥当な判断だったのか
digital.asahi.com/articles/DA3...
Not happening.
1) the US itself has decided against Hormuz Strait escorts.
2) this is an unpopular war of choice. 2015 legislation allows for an expansive reading of what constitutes “Japan’s survival”, but political call will be hard.
3) escorts in Hormuz are dangerous and resource-intensive.
Japan is signaling big time on Taiwan.
1) Oct. 2025 — Takaichi posts on meeting “Taiwan’s presidential office representative” @ APEC. (Notice language — posted after meeting Xi, btw)
2) November 2025 — famous tōben
3) March 2026 - Taiwan’s PM visits Japan.
Unhelpful, imho. Also, see below.
Totally.
The 7th article in our special issue ‘Kidnapping politics: Captivity passions and international security’ is out in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Barak Kushner explores how authoritarian states in 20th-century East Asia sought to reeducate captives for security reasons. doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Now that Iran has sealed off the Strait of Hormuz and the US will escort oil tankers in the Gulf, will Japan invoke Collective Self-Defense to deal with a “survival-threatening scenario”?
It was one of the original “strategic narrative” scenarios back in 2015.
(Spoiler: No)
To all of those claiming this is the real "Liberation Day", or feeling a sense of Schadenfreude, I would encourage you to wait.
Congress allows the US executive branch to levy tariffs thanks to Section 122, 201, 301, 232...-- the first one may well be invoked by the Trump administration very soon.
My analysis of how PM Takaichi won Japan’s election: a nationalist narrative, personal popularity and digital savvy. But lofty promises of strategic investment and national strength now face the constraints of fiscal reality and intensifying great power competition
eastasiaforum.org/2026/02/15/h...
My article for The Straits Times.
I outline the economic and political reasons why, even with her huge mandate, Takaichi won’t have a free hand in pushing reforms. www.straitstimes.com/opinion/taka...
Someone responsible for constitutional reinterpretation once told me: “It really makes no sense for Abe to fixate on constitutional amendments now”.
Join Prof. Jing Men @eui-schuman.bsky.social on January 21 for what promises to be a lively talk on EU-China relations.
www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
My analysis was brought up and discussed on primetime Japanese TV last Sunday. The segment is between 39:10 and 43:00.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFrb...
This year was my first full year working for myself, writing analysis for clients and a public-facing newsletter. By my count I wrote 105 client notes and 167 Substack posts. Here's a short thread with some of my favorite among the latter (which may also be a year in review of Japan's politics).
More from yours truly on US-China undercurrents feeding into China’s punitive stance vis-a-vis Japan.
中国、対日強硬の裏に米中「雪解け」 欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ氏：日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...
Well thank you, Hiro, for the kind words (and for the interview): “米中日関係に詳しい欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ博士は台湾問題で接点を探るため、米中がひそかに折衝している可能性を指摘する”
高市外交、対中打開は日米から ヒントは欧州流に：日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...
Where did China’s Taiwan invasion “dress rehearsals” (cit. US IndoPacom) go?
Aside from military-civil relations, US-China “G2” conversations may also explain quieter cross-Strait waters, at least on the kinetic side.
jamestown.org/program/beij...
Fantastic piece by @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social on what conclusions the EU should draw from the Trump-Takaichi meeting. Worth a read.
Everything you wanted to know about Taiwan, but were afraid to ask.
(by @insisa.bsky.social and yours truly).
We'll be auditioned by the European Parliament on December 11 on the basis of this mammoth report.
www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en...
Il 9 settembre esce il mio secondo libro
TOKYO È UNA GRANDE CUCINA
I GIAPPONESI SI CONOSCONO A TAVOLA
Come ho imparato a mangiare in Giappone, come ho conosciuto il giappone, e soprattutto il suo popolo, mangiando e bevendo insieme a persone di ogni tipo, amici,compagni di tavola, bancone di izakaya
BREAKING: Australia to buy 11 advanced Japanese frigates in breakthrough for Tokyo www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/08...
"[JMOD] said any response would 'be implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulations'."
In fact, GoJ has been, quietly, ticking all the above boxes in recent years.
on.ft.com/4lpqwAr
I think it’s an agave, Michal.
I’d add that one of the biggest losers of a prolonged quarantine and blockade would be China, which still heavily relies on Taiwan’s mid-range chips.
Ivan Kanapathy —former US, defence attache at AIT in Taipei— now at US NSC writes as much in a book edited by Pottinger.
If shipping can bypass the Red Sea and Suez Canal by going all the way around Africa and still report increases in profit as a result, there’s really no reason why ships going East of Taiwan instead of through the congested Taiwan Strait should cause that big of a disruption. Just saying
Telling interview on Japan's role in a Taiwan war:
1) Defense of Taiwan can happen if Japanese people's "daily activities" are infringed --pretty broad (Art. 13 hehe).
2) Japan can establish direct comms with Taiwan in "wartime" (i.e. end of strategic ambiguity)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qIS...
I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025.
Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.
I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025.
Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.
I meant the website, Prof Samuels.
