Clément Renault

AI, intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war The Russo-Ukrainian War is a major empirical case for examining how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making. Both Ukraine and Russia have de...

🚨📚 #Publication I have the great pleasure of publishing a new piece in the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence on the use of AI for intelligence processing, analysis and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war. 🇷🇺🇺🇦

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

New addition

Journal article: AI, intelligence processing, analysis, and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war by Clément Renault (published 11-12-2025)

https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2025.2596587

A sloppy operation can still succeed if the goal is subversion, not sophistication. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

How Russia's Intelligence Tradecraft Has Changed During the Russo-Ukrainian War - War on the Rocks Clément Renault, a senior research fellow in intelligence, war, and strategy at the French Institute for Strategic Research, joins Nicole on The Insider to dive...

I had the great pleasure of speaking with the wonderful Nicole Wiley on War on the Rocks’ podcast, The Insider. We spoke in this podcast about the broader evolution of Russia’s intelligence tradecraft and activities in Europe in the context of the war in Ukraine🇷🇺🇺🇦

warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

Red Hands in Paris: A Small Act of Vandalism in a Big Russian Strategy On the afternoon of May 11, 2024, two men arrived at a modest hotel in Paris. One of them, identifying himself as Mircho Angelov, presented a Bulgarian ID

🚨📚#Publication Held in Paris from October 29 to 31, 2025, the “red hands” trial is the first judicial proceeding in France 🇫🇷 against an alleged network of operatives related to Russian intelligence services 🇷🇺. This piece highlights the key takeaways of the trial.

warontherocks.com/2025/11/red-...

Czech, Romanian, and Hungarian special services smash Belarusian espionage network, Moldova’s former counterintelligence chief arrested The Czech Security and Information Service (BIS) reports that the country’s intelligence agencies, together with their counterparts in Romania and Hungary, have uncovered and dismantled a Belarusian e...

Czech, Romanian, and Hungarian special services smash Belarusian espionage network, Moldova’s former counterintelligence chief arrested

The Czech MFA is set to expel a Belarusian intelligence officer operating under diplomatic cover.
theins.press/en/news/284782

Trump Administration to End Security Programs Protecting European Allies From Russia

I’m not saying Trump is a Russian asset… www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/u...

A plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen was forced to land in Bulgaria using paper maps after suspected Russian GPS jamming disabled all navigation systems at Plovdiv Airport, Financial Times reports. The aircraft circled for an hour before landing manually.

Ines Anrich, Filles en conflitd Michael Lucken, Les occupants Arnaud Fossier, Les cathares JY Mollier, Panama

Reprise du podcast Paroles d’histoire avec plein de nouvelles parutions passionnantes à partir de lundi 1er septembre ! #StayTuned

If you support a military takeover of U.S. cities, ask yourself this: Who do you think they’ll target next... after they’re done wiping out your rivals? History shows these campaigns don’t end... they expand.

Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence Politicizing the system makes dangerous failures more likely.

The Trump administration is increasing the risk of a major intelligence failure, argue David Gioe and @genmhayden.bsky.social. “Brave analysts may no longer be willing to stick their heads above the parapet to provide intelligence that Trump needs to know.”

‘Flying Blind’: Trump Strips Government of Expertise at a High-Stakes Moment

"For decades, American presidents have relied on the expertise of foreign policy professionals to help guide them through tricky negotiations in high-stakes conflicts around the globe. Trump has taken a different approach toward such experts: He’s fired them."

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/u...

President Macron:

We are talking about an imperialist and revisionist power that is today's Russia, which since 2008 has constantly sought to conquer new territories, has constantly revised international borders, and has never kept its promises of peace and non-aggression.

Excellent décryptage sur le renseignement israélien.
Merci
@clementrenault.bsky.social
et
@alexjubelin.bsky.social !
J'ai juste été surpris de ne pas voir évoqué le facteur religieux dans les causes de l'échec RENS du 7 octobre. Mais peut-être un biais de ma part de lui donner cette importance ?

The International Affairs summer reading list 2025 There is nothing quite like spending the summer lost within the pages of a great book — or ten. Every year, Book Reviews Editor Mariana…

☀️ The wait is over: our summer reading list 2025 is here!

Explore our recommended selection of books, reviewed in International Affairs, to keep you company this summer: medium.com/internationa...

Agree this is shocking, but I find it historically unsurprising. While American democracy had deeper roots and more guardrails than Germany in 1933, the U.S. has been subject to destructive capitalist forces in recent years which have left the Republic only lightly defended. 🧵

🎙️🔎 Excellent épisode du podcast #LeCollimateur sur le renseignement israélien.
Merci à @clementrenault.bsky.social et @alexjubelin.bsky.social pour ce décryptage très éclairant.

Toward a New Grand Design? Reviving Sully’s Legacy in European Strategic Thought - War on the Rocks Editor’s Note: This is part of a running series of essays by Iskander Rehman, entitled “Applied History,” which seeks, through the study of the history of

The year was 1610. The king was killed. The war was called off. The design was never finished. warontherocks.com/20...

❗️Analysts doubt that Trump will impose the promised 100% tariffs on Russia's partners, - NYT

In their opinion, the large-scale trade between China and Russia - about $250 billion per year, mainly due to oil - makes such a step unlikely.

Rappelons à toutes fins utiles à l'ESR français (qui parfois utilise WeTransfer pour du professionnel) qu'il a filesender.renater.fr francetransfert.numerique.gouv.fr/upload et sans doute d'autres services dans les organismes.

Rome [Unpopular Opinions – Le Fil de l’épée #9] Pour le début de cette deuxième saison des "Unpopular opinions" du Fil de l'épée en histoire militaire, avec @andreloez.bsky.social‬, ‪@abrgll.bsky.social‬ et ‪@surlechampfr.bsky.social‬, retour vers ...

Pour le début de cette deuxième saison des "Unpopular opinions" du Fil de l'épée en histoire militaire, avec @andreloez.bsky.social‬, @abrgll.bsky.social et @surlechampfr.bsky.social, retour vers Rome avec une première "hot take" d'André.
lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

New addition

Journal article: Ukrainian Intelligence’s Use of Telegram in Wartime by Peter Schrijver (published 08-07-2025)

https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2025.2522222

Le sentiment de sécurité (voire les complexes de supériorité) mène généralement à la catastrophe dans les questions militaires, cas d'étude n°3264 avec @clementrenault.bsky.social, sur le renseignement israélien, ses failles et ses prouesses ultérieures.

Le renseignement israélien : de la faillite du 7 Octobre aux triomphes au Liban et en Iran Le Collimateur se penche aujourd'hui sur le fonctionnement et les dysfonctionnements du renseignement israélien, depuis l'échec lors des attaques du 7 octobre 2023 jusqu'aux démonstrations de puissanc...

#LeCollimateur se penche aujourd'hui sur le fonctionnement et les dysfonctionnements du renseignement israélien, depuis l'échec lors des attaques du 7 octobre 2023 jusqu'aux démonstrations de puissance de ces derniers mois face au Hezbollah et à l'Iran, avec @clementrenault.bsky.social

The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...

🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social

www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...

Trump helps Putin move the goalposts on Ukraine It's hard to imagine Trump berating Putin as he did with Zelensky.

La même lancinante observation alors que Kiev est pilonnée de bombes par les drones de la #Russie. Le président D. #Trump fait depuis 5 mois encore et toujours le jeu du seul Vladimir #Poutine et de son agression guerrière perpétuée. Pourquoi? 🧵1/ axios.com/2025/05/24/t...

🚨🎙️Join us (online) on 27 May at 6pm for a new conference on #intelligence with @paulmcgarr.bsky.social

As tensions arise between #India and #Pakistan, there is. no better place to be on the 27th to dig into the history of Indian intelligence 🇮🇳

Registration here 👇

www.irsem.fr/agenda/cycle...

Pentagon turmoil deepens: Top Hegseth aide leaves post “There is a complete meltdown in the building,” one official said.

Thinking back to right after Hegseth’s confirmation when MAGA Twitter insisted he would run the Pentagon so much better than Lloyd Austin. www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

Shashank Joshi interviews Mike for a wide-ranging discussion about the strategic lessons analysts can draw from the Russo-Ukrainian War. warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Thinking Through Deception on the Electromagnetic Spectrum - War on the Rocks The art of deception, as old as war itself, can garner astonishment when one side’s competence enables it to pull off an audacious plan. Warfighters can

Deception has always been part of warfare, but today’s battlefield is shaped by the electromagnetic spectrum. warontherocks.com/2025/04/thin...