Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.
10.03.2026 08:54
👍 3
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.
Works for me
Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat
Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...
After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.
Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes
Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
That's the plan
For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes
YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...
A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...
The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...
Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
They're drowning in it
It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going
2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...
Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...
Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...