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Fergal O’Connor

@a-fergal

Financial Economics UCC, Economics of Precious metals and Beer, Munster Rugby and Kerry Football

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21.01.2025
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Latest posts by Fergal O’Connor @a-fergal

Also assumes O’Connell isn’t a stats guru - the man has 3/4s of a computer science degree!

27.02.2026 12:52 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

There’s Muckie, the monster in the Killarney lakes too.

23.02.2026 18:46 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

So, not a no.

17.02.2026 22:57 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Macroom - where he’s from in Cork has a town phrase “the town that never raised a fool”. He’ll have to tell them to change it now.

08.02.2026 18:49 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Macau’s Grand Emperor hotel rips up lobby floor to sell off gold bricks Parent company says the bullion created a ‘sumptuous atmosphere’ but current market conditions offered a ‘good opportunity’ to sell it

Everythings fine. #Gold. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...

06.02.2026 11:04 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

100%

31.01.2026 21:19 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Gold's long-term expected return (GLTER)

Here is a short paper I was involved in writing using these arguments to estimate a LR return for gold. www.gold.org/goldhub/rese...

27.01.2026 10:37 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The majority of gold owned is jewellery(54%) financial demand causes a lot of churn,but the stock of gold builds up mostly with consumers. It would be fundamentally determined by savings ability and economic growth. Gold is not simply a financial asset. In the long run consmers are the holders.

27.01.2026 10:37 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Gold is not a normal asset-by the logic that fear is only sentiment there are no fundmental drivers for gold-without a yeild. If a bubble occrs when high prices are not justified then gold at 5k is justified if there were to be a serious shock in confidence in the dollar without an alternative.

27.01.2026 09:26 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I'd argue that a fundamental driver of gold is its safe haven feature. The increase in fear is driving safe haven buying as it always does, if the uncertainty dissipates as it did after Dragi's "whatever it takes" speach, the underlying fundamental reason to hold golds high price will dissipate.

27.01.2026 09:26 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The rise to 1900 was temporary but not a bubble-if things hadn't improved, it would have stayed high. When the world calms down(hope it does)gold & silver will fall. The usual after a bull market is ~40%. When that happens, people will say this was a bubble, buts its driven by fundamentals: fear.

26.01.2026 10:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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May 1939 - more frequent references to defence spending in the Financial News newspaper. Here the growth in the importance of defence expenditure for the economy.

21.01.2026 11:56 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

One does not simply navigate their way into MS Teams

20.01.2026 15:56 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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#silver market is roaring ATM but in August 1937 Twas not so … “Lifeless” said the Financial News. Boom will eventually turn into bust again, only question is when.

20.01.2026 14:32 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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From nearby🧙

19.01.2026 21:50 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I’m not sure being captain suits him. Seems to take a lot of the pressure on himself.

18.01.2026 09:46 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Between 1962-2003 Amihud was: 0.029 for Short US Bonds, 0.125 for medium Bonds, and 0.218 for Long-Bonds per Goyenko et al. (2009) vs 0.17 for gold over the full sample and 0.007 from 33-39.

More data to be collected next week to fill in the blanks, but it seems #gold was liquid back then, too.

16.01.2026 15:35 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

when Private Hoarders started buying started getting comments from the IMF (www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) etc. The market was remarkably liquid. Even on the last day before markets closed for WWII it had better liquidity than in '31. For comparison 2/n

16.01.2026 15:35 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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@goldcouncil.bsky.social Was the #gold market liquid in the 1930s? I've collected a small sample from each year when prices in the London Gold Market were free to vary from 1931-39. Based ona fw days from each year at this point, we can see that though it was more illiquid in 1931 by 1933 1/n

16.01.2026 15:35 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Ex-Munster star Peter O'Mahony launching new zero alcohol beer brand The rugby legend is launching the new drinks in association with Blarney Brewing

More and more breweries that only deal in non-alcoholic beer showing up such as Fierce Mild in Ireland and Lucky Saint in England @alcoholireland.ie www.irishexaminer.com/business/com...

16.01.2026 14:50 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Slightly diminish a band

TA39.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999988888888888888888888888888888888888999999999999999999989999999999999999999999999999999999888888888888888888

10.01.2026 19:36 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Well since Conchobhar na Siudaine Ó Briain did it in 1257 anyway, kidnapping the sons of O’Briens. But they weren’t Venezuelan afaik.

03.01.2026 10:25 👍 11 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Still undefeated in #monopoly in 2026

01.01.2026 23:15 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

They could have done with her at the Ashes, great woman to throw a ball.

24.12.2025 14:03 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

This himself!

18.12.2025 10:53 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Explained mostly by rising gold prices

17.12.2025 13:23 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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What’s Behind Gold’s Rally? Gold and silver have posted their best yearly gains since the late 1970s.

Lovely to chat with Alex Demas about gold and silver's record year, "What’s Behind Gold’s Rally?" thedispatch.com/newsletter/m... @ucc.ie

17.12.2025 11:48 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

They should fabricate data the old fashioned way, with Monte Carlo simulations - like our fathers and their fathers before them!

16.12.2025 20:02 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
A sad stag

A sad stag

#BathvMun

06.12.2025 22:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Infinite loop created.

02.12.2025 16:19 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0