Mariia Zolkina

US strikes on Iran have shown clearly, that President Trump is seeking for quick political dividends to his image of great leader of America. However, long term strategic repercussion are underestimated. And at this time there is lack of any readiness to push harder against Russia.

„Jesteśmy zmuszani do kapitulacji”. Po to Trump wstrzymał pomoc dla Ukrainy [Rozmowa] „Trump odrzucił wszystkie warunki, o których mówiła Ukraina, zamiast tego narzuca jej warunki określone przez Rosję” – mówi ekspertka.

Mój wywiad dla oko_press o tym czym jest dzisiejsza sytuacja w relacjach amerykano-ukraińskich

oko.press/ukraina-zmus...

In today's show, which Trump needed, President Zelensky was not only himself, but each of us: when your main "card" is your right to have your country, your dignity and courage to defend it.

91% of Ukrainians are against US-RU direct negotiations without Ukraine. And 83% can agree for a ceasefire only if there are security guarantees for Ukraine (which are out of the table now). Data from Rating Group

I've been studying public opinion in Ukraine on war-related issues for 11 years already and say for sure: the more you push and pressure UA for unfavourable concessions, almost capitulation - the higher is resistance to that scenario. Well, first reaction to US-RU talks without UA is exactly this...

We can speculate about Trump's motives as much as possible. But giving Putin everything he wanted and failed to get even by the large scale war under no circumstances is a Trump success or victory. Neither diplomatic, nor economic. America won't be great and won't be stronger

3d year into large scale invasion of the sovereign country. And 11th year since Russia started the war by occupying Crimea and 1/3 of Donbas. Unfortunately, it took US 2 weeks to change the side and vote against undoubted reality that Russia is aggressor and must be punished

- there is no guarantee, that American businesses stops operating if objects or mineral deposits are occupied - going here back to security guarantees so RU won’t be able to attack again,
- general approach like Ukraine is paying debts, though we didn’t borrow money.

3) Mineral’s deal draft was rejected by UA side for reasons:
- no security guarantees for UA, but all the preferences to US,
- it wasn’t about minerals only, but also about infrastructure like ports (why would Ukraine pay 50% of incomes from ports to US?!) ⬇️

2) UA society is opposing elections under large-scale war and will consider this is unwise and harmful.

Smth important on #Ukraine and #Trump administration:
1) Pres.Zelensky isn’t perfect, but he legally elected. Next election aren’t canceled, but postponed accord. to UA legislation. Both Constitution and electoral legislation were specifically designed to avoid elections if there is martial law.

The biggest Russia’s cyber attack on 🇺🇦public registers with personal data and digital services for citizens. Data is either stolen or deleted, including backup services in Poland. 🇷🇺strategy is to undermine functionality of 🇺🇦state by all the means.

Thank you!

Now officially: I am happy to join @lseideas.bsky.social team, the main foreign policy think at LSE as an Associate Fellow! Looking forward to new projects, one of which is already on the way!

Recording: The Impact of the US Presidential Election on European Security A briefing on the impact of the US presidential election result on European security as part of our Transatlantic Trilateral Security Dialogue.

📺What approach is the new US administration likely to take on European security? Rewatch our discussion on the immediate and long-term potential impacts with @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @jteurope.bsky.social, @oanalungescu.bsky.social @mariiazolk.bsky.social and @edrusi.bsky.social.

The Impact of the US Presidential Election on European Security | Research Event 21 November 2024 YouTube video by RUSI

Well, full recording of today’s great event at @rusi.bsky.social on impact of Trump re-election for European security is already available online! For those who missed the event the link to recording is bellow

youtu.be/TDZPfy_GLMs?...

Launching an intercontinental ballistic missile on Ukraine, and threatening western states that they are eligible targets now as well is Putin’s way to frame negotiations (if any) and make 🇺🇦 capitulate politically under the pressure from frightened West. Very similar to 2022 rhetoric and tactics

Thanks for your valuable insights and analysis, @oanalungescu.bsky.social!

What a timely and insightful discussion took place today at @rusi.bsky.social on consequences of Trump re-election for European security. Many thanks to colleagues for great inputs!
@edrusi.bsky.social
@maxbergmann.bsky.social
@oanalungescu.bsky.social
@jteurope.bsky.social

1000. One thousand days ago RU has attacked 🇺🇦 in a full-scale way. No one really believed 🇺🇦would survive, almost all partners expected Ukraine would fall apart. But bravery of people, who pushed Russia back and are still doing the same, though tired and outnumbered, changed the scenario.

Russia officially started massively conscripting 🇺🇦youth on territories occupied after 2022. Young men from occupied part of Zaporizhzhya region were officially sent to serve in 🇷🇺Armed Forces. This is what the West underestimates: occupation of 🇺🇦land will add mobilization resources for RU

Dear friends, if you’re interested in evidence-based analysis of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expertise on diplomatic process, situation on temporary occupied territories of Ukraine and regional security options, please follow. New social media to me, let’s give it a try)