Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 81% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 98%.
#akleg

The Friday column: Stabilizing Alaska’s boom-bust-boom-bust revenue cycles A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here

This Week's Column| A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.71% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.65% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 20.78% v PFC 12.43%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $8 (+$278mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $14 (+$466mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $4 (avg annual +$140mil)
#akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (3.9.2026) SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead. buff.ly/lD4gFZU

As those versed in corporate finance know, there is a HUGE difference between dividends on common stock and preferred stock. Given the statutory terms, PFDs are structured as the equivalent of a preferred dividend, but are cynically treated by #akleg politicians as common.

The Weekly Top 3 (3.9.2026) SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead. buff.ly/lD4gFZU

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Menu

EIA Mar STEO| We expect Brent to average $91/b in 2Q26. Once oil flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect global oil production to again outpace consumption, resulting in average Brent prices of $70/b in 4Q26 and $64/b in 2027. #akleg buff.ly/HP1bvFp

The Friday column: Stabilizing Alaska’s boom-bust-boom-bust revenue cycles A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here

This Week's Column| A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here.
buff.ly/wpU9bHz

Alaska has bigger needs than fattening the dividend | Alaska Beacon Higher oil prices mean more money for the Alaska state treasury as legislators are working to craft a spending plan for the next fiscal year.

🤔 If true, then Alaskans should be willing to pay for those "needs" equitably, by using broad-based taxes rather than using "the most regressive tax ever proposed" (PFD cuts). #akleg buff.ly/lHJFVk9

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.89% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.15% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.78% v PFC 12.43%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $9 (+$313mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $14 (+$466mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $3 (avg annual +$105mil)
#akleg

This Wk's Top 3| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, is Iran changing #AKLNG's dynamics & why we should ignore the Spring Revenue Forecast in setting the FY27 budget. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/aHtXehh

The Friday column: Stabilizing Alaska’s boom-bust-boom-bust revenue cycles A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here

This Week's Column| A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here.
buff.ly/wpU9bHz

We should be honest about it. Alaska is a plutocracy. Although they try to rationalize & window-dress it, by using PFD cuts to fund the govt rather than MUCH less regressive approaches, even the so-called "moderates" and "progressives" bend to it. #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.90% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.52% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.45% v PFC 12.43%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $9 (+$313mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $15 (+$505mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $4 (avg annual +$140mil)
#akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 75% ⬆️ Asia.

2/end

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 5% ⬆️ Asia, 180% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

1/2

The futures strip about 5 hours into the trading day. Prices are hot in the near term but drop quickly as the strip lengthens. #akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

The Friday column: Stabilizing Alaska’s boom-bust-boom-bust revenue cycles A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here

This Week's Column| A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here.

𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/jdGIT6J
Effective Fed funds rate: 3.64%
US Treas Bond yields --
**10-Yr: 4.13%**
20-Yr: 4.71%
30-Yr: 4.74%

4/end

> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/wmEcAlH
Current: 2.39% (Jan)
10yr Avg: 2.35%
Next 5yrs: 2.56%
5 yrs Beyond That: 2.14%

3/4

𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/RA3m7uL
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 26.2% (2.6%/yr)

2/4

The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg

1/4

The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ret'n from Asia. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 7.0
* Not in ANS service: 1
* Asia: 1
* USWC: 11 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs

How bad is Alaska fiscal policy? This bad. And generally speaking, no one in the #akleg - not even those who claim to prioritize middle & lower income #AKfams - is doing anything to fix it. buff.ly/7zmQXS9

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill. buff.ly/s6vuox8

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $72, behind Brent (-$.58) but ahead of Brent/WTI avg ($2.09). #akleg