FPL Taniwha

This all means holding TAA through. But could well just take a -4 this week and go to a Chelsea defender, maybe Colwill? Or Gusto?

Then GW13 take a hit to bring in Cunha and van Hecke for Lewis and Solanke.

Followed by Ait Nouri in for Graves GW14.

New plan, post International break, reflecting my custom fixture difficulty rankings. Steam into Chelsea attack, then go for Brighton defence and Wolves attackers. Haaland and Garnacho out (2 FT) for Jackson and Palmer. Not overly worried about Jackson yellow cards.

The big limitation I have is using FFScout FDR. It's great, but I guess if I could build something from scratch I could reflect all that nuance. I just don't have the time or skills!

Thanks, yeah it's definitely the fun part for me too. Especially when on the hunt for differentials to separate from the crowd. Not that I'd go crazy with that. The best picks are the best picks for a reason. Salah for example!

It's definitely not perfect and I'll be tweaking the system as we go but it's been great to challenge the norm and create something based on data to reveal surprising results. Bournemouth high xG at home in tough fixtures for example, and low xGC away.

Another good example of this is the defensive rankings, using xG performance of opposition, where West Ham have best run of fixtures. But I'm not going to get a defender from them. Brighton I will however.

City also low down and perhaps this is the main downside of my rankings is it only reflects performance of opposition, not strength of team itself. Which means you need to apply a level of common sense or own judgement on top.

Anyway here's the result for attacking potential next 5, shown in FFScout's customisable FDR. The colours make almost every fixture look tough so it's important to remember it's all relative.
Really interesting to see United bottom, though new manager means I'd be cautious with this

Now I'm pretty amateur at this but I then adjusted those figures to try account for difficulty of the fixtures they accumulated those stats in. Used historical match odds to do so. I think this part needs some work but allows for things like Wolves and even Forests tough opening run of fixtures

Used @ffscoutfpl.bsky.social membership for the data as well as customisable FDR to visualise.
Newcastle best xG away from home (17th at home). Arsenal 16th.
Brentford best xG at home (worst away).
Villa best xGC home (15th away).

Hey this is awesome. I've been toying with my own FDR over the break too as it had always felt the default rankings don't reflect recent data. My system was very similar, using xG and xGC split home and away. There were some very interesting results.