Hannah Rajski

Am Sonntag ist Landtagswahl in Baden-Württemberg. Was sagt das Zweistimme.org Modell vorher? ⬇️

Applications are still open until the end of the week!

Join us for this year‘s Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social. Applications are open until March 1.

2️⃣4️⃣🎁🎄 Doing something new for Advent this year: one great data journalism piece per day until Dec 24. I’m teaching a data journalism course @hertieschool.bsky.social next semester, so this is partly selfish homework. But maybe interesting for others too.

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior.
I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities.
Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop!

I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.

Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents

Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop!

We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour.

Today’s sessions:
👉 Panel I – Elites
👉 Panel II – Participation
👉 Panel III – Party Strategies

Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Wir suchen Wahlhilfenhelfer zur #Kommunalwahl in #Hessen 2026.
👉 Anmeldung zur Infoveranstaltung: tudaipol.limesurvey.net/994956?lang=de

Two fantastic days of the annual conference of the #AKWahlen are now behind us.

Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️

Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!

It was a pleasure to chair and to be the discussant of the papers of such a wonderful @apsa.bsky.social panel! Thanks you all @hannahrajski.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social @bjerome-t.bsky.social

Quote: “In the 2025 federal election in Germany new rules meant that for the first time some candidates have won their constituency, but no seat in parliament. Our prediction model allowed to forecast such vacant constituencies.” from Hannah Rajski

🗳️ The DFG-funded project @zweitstimme.bsky.social drew widespread attention from media and scholars in the context of the 2025 German federal election.

Besides national-level party vote shares, they forecasted district-level vote shares for candidates, and whether districts become “vacant”.

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EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.

😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.

👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.

A short 🧵

Feels like a good time to share this call for papers. Can't wait for EPSS 2026!

Thank you, Melanie! The workshop was very inspiring and colourful! 🗺️📊

Thank you for the insightful and fun workshop!

Truly honored to be at the #WPM summer school and grateful for the chance to connect with so many inspiring women*. Looking forward to the next days! Big thanks to the organizers for making it all happen!

Interested in election forecasting? 📊🗳️

Check out @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social and my talk on different forecasting models for the 2025 German election and insights into our Zweitstimme.org research project.

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

Really enjoyed Day 1 of #EPSA25 here in Madrid! ☀️
Today I’ll be presenting insights from our Zweitstimme.org pre-election survey on Germans’ electoral expectations 🇩🇪🗳️
🔍 What affected citizens’ accuracy?
🔍 Can financial incentives improve accuracy?

VOTBEH – When do campaigns work
📅 11:20
📍 OA.10

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵

Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio

🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨

Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.

The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇

academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University).

⬇️ Zoom link and details below

I'm on my way to Mannheim, looking forward to talk about our forecasting project (zweitstimme.org) with @hannahrajski.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online 🤗

📣 If you are interested in election forecasting, cancel your plans!
CDSS doctoral candidate @hannahrajski.bsky.social and co-author Dr. @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social will be sharing their work at the MZES Social Science Data Lab.

Time, location, and abstract below. Don’t miss it.

Looking forward to presenting our latest insights from forecasting the German federal election (zweitstimme.org) with @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online!

New #openaccess "Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system: The 2021 German federal election as a test case" (with Andreas Murr, @lstoetze.bsky.social and @markkayser.bsky.social) in International Journal of Forecasting. doi.org/10.1016/j.ij... 1/

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social with Michael Lewis-Beck. We show that political economy models - based on inflation rate, government/prime minister approval, and the number of terms in office - performed well in forecasting CON vote share ahead of the 2024 GE
doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Image of the job ad. Please see link for full information.

❗ Reminder:
Apply now for a fellowship at the MZES, University of Mannheim!
📅 Deadline: 26 April
❗ Please note the updated link 😊👇🏻
www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...