"Scared money don't make money" is the motto of the financially illiterate.
Risk management matters more than risk tolerance.
"Scared money" is more likely to be "disciplined" than it is "scared."
In Dynasty...
Be the Casino, not the Casino's dream customer.
Kindness is not weakness.
Kindness is strength.
Strength is intentional - it is firm, controlled, and restrained.
It takes strength to override impulse.
Weakness is the default.
Being kind when it's not deserved is a flex - a show of strength.
Being unkind reveals weakness.
When presenting numbers to make a case - most people will leverage omission, framing, cherry picking and survivorship bias as if they are in pursuit of winning a debate competition instead of in pursuit of truth or knowledge.
One of the laziest colloquial phrases is:
"Numbers don't lie"
The opposite is mostly true.
Except in cases where data sets are enormous or data is collected in a very standardized and thoughtful manner (impossible in many cases), numbers can tell us easily believable lies
Dynasty is a game of not being wrong more than it is a game of being right.
You don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your market liquidity.
Actually understanding QB variance and leveraging it is one of the most simple edges you will find.
A lot of dynasty strategy is the equivalent of stepping over dollars to pick up pennies.
We like to deny or ignore simple and obvious stuff because it's not new or exciting.
There is a "goldilocks zone" for being in the right number of leagues - right for you.
Too many, and you're leaving good opportunities to act on the table.
Too few, and you're prone to acting when you should hold. It's harder to be patient when each league is more prominent.
"The combination of some data and an aching desire for an answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer can be extracted from a given body of data."
-Tukey
On NFL analytics, probably..
Early April pre-NFL rookie draft steals:
Jarquez Hunter (4th/5th)
Terrence Ferguson (4th)
Mason Taylor (late 3rd)
Kyle Williams (4th)
Jaydon Blue (4th)
Jack Bech (late 3rd/4th)
They all have a better shot at draft capital than price indicates.
I think the short term production curves might change in the wrong direction if the class is good enough.
Theres tons of guys to push for touches, and one maybe two guys who take over the whole backfield?
I don't think this RB class is quite as good as the consensus does tho.
I don't know if this is the great running back class it's supposed to be, but if it is...
Its probably not going to result in the fantasy Running Back landscape being better.
It's more likely to fill up the NFL with RB committees, doing more harm than good to most fantasy RBs
CMC was way more expensive than he should have been in trade, but still WAY cheaper than high first draft capital.
Saquon just needed a normal contract.
Josh Jacobs cheap FA
Derrick Henry was cheaply available.
JT was available and may be again
Lenny was totally free
Mixon, Connor, others...
This is a tale as old as time situation.
The team drafting in the high first round RBs can almost never extend them, and if they do it usually looks idiotic in hindsight.
So any team with aspirations in being good soon can probably start sniffing around Bijan/Breece for relative pennies.
One of the best reasons for even good teams who can afford the luxury to avoid picking RBs in the early first is there will likely be elite vet RBs available for cheap.
That bad org from 4-5 drafts ago has to sign their elite RB to a contract that makes no sense for a bad team and he's available.
Dynasty is 80% waiting and 20% doing stuff.
Maybe 80% is low.
This one angle provides a large percentage of the psychological challenge.
Waiting is very hard.
When prospecting, one must "hold" two important but slightly contradictory truths in the mind at the same time.
1️⃣Prospect development is not linear
2️⃣Comparing an older (23) prospect to a younger (20) prospect is not an apples to apples comparison
Just trying to peak thru the keyholes at what the NFL thinks with these well connected media members.
After all, a very wise man once said that "the NFL's evaluation is more important than my own evaluation." Especially true in this case, I'm no RB savant.
Thanks, forgot about that.
I think it's a good and solid RB class too, but I think it's biggest strength might be extreme depth a level below real multi year fantasy starters.
A few top end guys, and a ton of role players (of which some will emerge as studs from the sheer volume).
It is good, but I think one of the big questions of this class is:
"How good is that giant tier of RBs after the top 5 or 6 RBs?"
There's 20 names right now, but also how many of these guys are solid backups vs multi year fantasy contributors?
These well-connected lists are just coming out.
Zierlein has 7 RBs above a "good backup with potential to develop into starter" grade.
Jeremiah has 4 RBs in his top 50.
Brugler has 8 RBs in his top 100 (4 in top 50).
ESPN (Kiper/Mcshay?) have 8 RBs in their top 100
Win the race to acquiring those newly minted post-rollover firsts from the owners who don't value distant future firsts highly enough!
Now is the time!
👀
Here is the list of running back invites for the Combine. Incredibly deep class and this doesn't even have 2 guys I think should be on NFL rosters Ja'Cory Croskey Merritt and Tre Stewart.
In preparation for Dynasty season - it's time to pre-stash players for next year.
Free stashes:
Isaiah Davis (if you still can)
Ruckert
Eli Mitchell
Cowing
Dav Martin-Robinson
Stone Smartt
Tremble
Haskins
Holker
Moreau
Who else should we be stashing?
@fftommyb.bsky.social
Rico Dowdle hive!
This is awesome, I'll be back to peruse more.
Thanks a ton, been procrastinating trying to find everyone and this really helps.
Fantasy football fam, I've added more to FF Community Pack 3. It's now over 100 fantasy peeps strong. We still have room for about 40 more.
Keeping my DMs open so folks can alert me to new accounts or folks who've slipped past me somehow.
Packs 1 & 2 are attached. Share 'em!
go.bsky.app/83kaGKo
This makes it easier to connect with all of our friends we have yet to find and follow from other sites?
That's awesome - I haven't had a chance to try to sync things up yet myself.
Don't "buy high" in the literal sense.
Instead, take note of players who are worth buying high on, and put them on a list.
Sit back and wait for one of the players on this list to experience negative variance, and take advantage of those buy windows when they open.
