Security Dilemmas

Just saw John Fetterman interviewed on CNN about the Iran war, which he is a stout supporter of. He makes me wistful for Joe Manchin.

I'm about a third of the way through reading Jeffrey Engel's book, "When the World Seemed New: George H. W. Bush and the End of the Cold War". Really good.

Feature. Not a bug.

Wow.

Opportunity for China: US depletes interceptor stocks in Middle East | The Strategist The US- and Israeli-led war on Iran has been, with a few key caveats, a quick military success for the United States and its allies. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a strategic success. Indeed, the ...

"If Chinese leaders plan to make good on decades of threats and finally invade Taiwan, there’s a window between now and three or four years from now when the long-term missile gap—between China’s offensive missiles and the US’s defensive ones—will yawn most."

Trump also just said Iran had "a very powerful navy."

Iran has Tomahawk missiles, according to Trump.

Opinion | China may be preparing for nuclear war. Trump can’t ignore it. Rather than aiming for nuclear deterrence, China appears to be building a stockpile to wage war.

Robert Peters: “China seems to be preparing to fight, and potentially win, a nuclear war.” It was only a matter of time before someone on the right made this claim. My thought when I read this was of Richard Pipes’s 1977 article, “Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War”.

Trump Wants to ‘Take Over’ Elections. These States Are Prime Targets.

You're assuming the midterms will be free and fair elections. I'm no alarmist, but there's reason for concern.

All the President’s Portraits President Trump’s image — in paint and pixels, on posters and sculptures — is ubiquitous inside the White House, and beyond.

When I traveled to Iraq in 1996 and 1998 when Saddam Hussein was still firmly entrenched in power, it was like this. Posters, billboards, paintings of him everywhere, in *exactly* the same way as Trump. Just unapologetic dictator as embodiment of the nations shit. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Jon raises serious and legitimate concerns about Trump ordering a nuclear attack on Iran. Two other data points:

On Monday, Trump told @jaketapper.bsky.social, “We haven’t even started hitting them hard. The big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon.”

This morning, Trump wrote:

incredible ineptitude: "Unprepared for Iranian drones, U.S. and partners seek Ukraine’s help"... and NOW they want Ukraine to help

#OTD in 1944, William Hitler joined the fight against his uncle Adolf by enlisting in the U.S. Navy. Initially rejected, he received permission to serve after writing to FDR and getting cleared by the FBI. He later changed his name and lived quietly in NY until his death in 1987.

Another tragic, and completely foreseeable, cost of this war.

a man is sitting on a couch with the words `` that 's a shame '' written on the screen . ALT: a man is sitting on a couch with the words `` that 's a shame '' written on the screen .

Noem out as DHS secretary.

The IRGC has an elite component, the Quds Force, which carries out Iran’s external paramilitary operations, but it’s only one part of the Guards Corps. 2/2

The IRGC is not an "elite" force. The IRGC's defining trait is its institutional loyalty to the Islamic Republic. It is entrusted with safeguarding Iran's theocratic regime in a way that Iran’s conventional military is not. 1/2

Trump just a few minutes ago: "When crazy people have nuclear weapons, bad things happen."

Who would have thought he and I would agree on something?

Opinion | There Is Nothing Inevitable About a Russian Victory in Ukraine

Always read Lawrence Freedman.

Gift link.

There are ten zillion reasons to criticize Donald Trump. This isn't one I'd thought of.

From Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) yesterday.

(President Hegseth?)

Macron opens door to deploying French nuclear forces to European allies The plan is a “major evolution” of France’s deterrence posture, the president said in a long-awaited speech at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany.

In any normal week this would be a huge story. France moves toward extending a nuclear umbrella over European allies-- a major sign of declining credibility of US extended deterrence.
www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

100%.

Note that Trump did not order “preemptive” strikes against Iran prior to Israel’s air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, which the U.S. almost certainly knew of in advance. So why did he decide to do so this time around? 5/5

If the Trump administration was supportive of the anticipated Israeli attacks on Iran, why didn’t Trump just order U.S. forces, which are much more capable than the Israeli military, to carry out the attacks? 4/5

If Trump was concerned about Iranian retaliation following an impending Israeli attack, wouldn’t it just have been easier to discourage the Israelis from launching strikes against Iran to begin with? 3/5

The emerging claim, clumsily articulated by Mike Johnson a short while ago, seems to be that the U.S. had to act because Israel was about to Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and Iran was going to retaliate against U.S. forces in the region. This is a very curious definition of preemption. 2/5

The Trump administration and GOP members of Congress are struggling mightily to get on the same page as to the rationale behind the air strikes on Iran. 1/5