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Antti-Ilari Partanen

@aipartanen

Climate scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute using Earth System Models to study e.g. negative emission technologies, carbon budgets, and aerosol climate effects.

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20.10.2023
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Latest posts by Antti-Ilari Partanen @aipartanen

Are you a young academic working on climate and feel ready for a move? We are recruiting two Assistant/Associate Professors @granthamicl.bsky.social at Imperial College London @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social (1/6)

10.03.2026 00:37 πŸ‘ 85 πŸ” 71 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3
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β€œEurope's landscapes over the past more than 20 million years have predominantly been a mosaic: a mixture of grasslands, scrub and woodlands of varying density. A light-filled, flower-rich open woodland shaped by grazing animals as a decisive ecological forceβ€”not a dark closed-canopy forest.”

03.03.2026 18:59 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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The LULUCF Data Hub: translating global land use emissions estimates into the national GHG inventory framework Abstract. Global estimates of anthropogenic land use CO2 fluxes from bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models, as well as those derived from Earth observations (EO), can differ widely f...

🌳 Puzzled by land-use emissions data?

➑️ The LULUCF Data Hub description paper now in discussion:
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

🌍 The Hub is an open-access platform that compiles, harmonizes, and visualizes country-level COβ‚‚ fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).

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26.02.2026 09:58 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Tuossa tekstissÀ myâs implisiittisesti edetÀÀn argumentista, ettÀ fossiilisia pÀÀstâjÀ ei voi kompensoida maankÀyttâsektorin nieluilla, johtopÀÀtâkseen ettÀ maankÀyttâsektorin nettopÀÀstâillÀ ei ole vÀliÀ. MaankÀyttân pÀÀstâjen kompensoiminen pysyvillÀ nieluilla vasta kalliiksi tulisikin.

07.02.2026 18:42 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

At risk of repeating myself: if you have a Twitter/X account then at least pause it. Tell organisations you work for/are involved in to stop posting there.

08.01.2026 10:31 πŸ‘ 71 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2
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One week until Christmas Eve! πŸŽ„

Here's how the frequency for white Christmases have changed over the last decades in Europe. πŸ“‰

Colors show how often there was snow on the ground at Christmas within each 30-year period, from 1951–1980 through 1995–2024.

17.12.2025 09:10 πŸ‘ 49 πŸ” 29 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
Golf-virta romahtaa: Helsinkiin 40 asteen pakkaset?
Golf-virta romahtaa: Helsinkiin 40 asteen pakkaset? YouTube video by Asiastudiofi

Olin Asiastudio-podcastin vieraana juttelemassa mahdollisesta Atlantin kiertoliikkeen romahduksesta ja sen vaikutuksista. Paljon asiaa, eikÀ kaikkea tietenkÀÀn muistanut edes kertoa!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnRC...

04.12.2025 07:02 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

It would be helpful to emphasise that the graph is showing time derivative of forcing, not the actual forcing itself. Could you perhaps show the annual forcing values side-by-side?

27.11.2025 05:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Great Oxidation Event - Wikipedia

Jos otetaan huomioon myΓΆs historia ennen ihmistΓ€, niin hapen aiheuttama massasukupuutto yli 2 miljardia vuotta sitten nostaisi hapen varmaan aika korkealle. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_O...

25.11.2025 11:34 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The revised calculation regarding overestimated present-day forest-area for Sland makes sense. Could you just calculate Sland in a simpler way as a difference between
S3 and a simulation with historical changes in land cover and harvest rates but climate, N inputs and CO2 from preindustrial?

24.11.2025 13:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Announcement that the applications are open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, with speakers including Clare Farrell, Ben Franta, Julia Steinberger, VΓ­tor Vasconcelos, and Rachel Donald, with more to come!

Announcement that the applications are open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, with speakers including Clare Farrell, Ben Franta, Julia Steinberger, VΓ­tor Vasconcelos, and Rachel Donald, with more to come!

I am beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change!

Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.

More info: acscc.nl

17.11.2025 09:03 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems Humanity has pushed Earth’s life-supporting systems to the brink, accelerated by our failures over the past decade. Our only way to limit the duration and magnitude of temperature overshoot is rapid, ...

I will write more about this later, for now just to say our paper has been published today. 10 years after Paris Agreement we can conclusively say we have failed to limit warming to well below 2Β°C. What next?

www.cell.com/one-earth/ab...

17.11.2025 08:34 πŸ‘ 118 πŸ” 81 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4
a schematic diagram showing various processes and related indicators for monitoring carbon removal in ocean systems, based on analyzed literature. The diagram divides the processes into three categories represented by different colors:

Blue Carbon (green): Focuses on processes related to carbon sequestration and the role of marine ecosystems in capturing and storing carbon.

Artificial Upwelling (yellow): Depicts processes that involve artificial interventions in marine environments to increase carbon capture.

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (blue): Illustrates methods that increase ocean alkalinity, which can help enhance carbon removal.

The processes depicted in the diagram include:

Carbon Sequestration Potential: This refers to the ability of oceans to capture and store carbon, with an indicator for monitoring this potential.

Mineral Dissolution and Seawater Alkalinity Change: These processes are associated with changes in seawater chemistry, enhancing carbon sequestration through increased alkalinity.

GHG Emissions: This represents the release of greenhouse gases, which can be measured to monitor the net carbon dynamics in the system.

Carbon Removal Rates and Respiration: Shows how carbon is removed from the atmosphere and the role of respiration in this process, measured through carbon flux indicators.

Primary Production and Water Masses Detection: This includes the detection of primary production (e.g., photosynthesis) in marine systems that leads to organic carbon formation.

Sinking, Remineralization, and Burial: These processes involve the movement of carbon from the surface to deeper ocean layers, with some carbon remineralized and some buried in sediments.


πŸ§ͺ🌊

a schematic diagram showing various processes and related indicators for monitoring carbon removal in ocean systems, based on analyzed literature. The diagram divides the processes into three categories represented by different colors: Blue Carbon (green): Focuses on processes related to carbon sequestration and the role of marine ecosystems in capturing and storing carbon. Artificial Upwelling (yellow): Depicts processes that involve artificial interventions in marine environments to increase carbon capture. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (blue): Illustrates methods that increase ocean alkalinity, which can help enhance carbon removal. The processes depicted in the diagram include: Carbon Sequestration Potential: This refers to the ability of oceans to capture and store carbon, with an indicator for monitoring this potential. Mineral Dissolution and Seawater Alkalinity Change: These processes are associated with changes in seawater chemistry, enhancing carbon sequestration through increased alkalinity. GHG Emissions: This represents the release of greenhouse gases, which can be measured to monitor the net carbon dynamics in the system. Carbon Removal Rates and Respiration: Shows how carbon is removed from the atmosphere and the role of respiration in this process, measured through carbon flux indicators. Primary Production and Water Masses Detection: This includes the detection of primary production (e.g., photosynthesis) in marine systems that leads to organic carbon formation. Sinking, Remineralization, and Burial: These processes involve the movement of carbon from the surface to deeper ocean layers, with some carbon remineralized and some buried in sediments. πŸ§ͺ🌊

Marine COβ‚‚ removal lacks standardized indicators to quantify carbon removed and environmental impacts. This absence of reliable metrics prevents verification, inhibits investment, and blocks entry into carbon trading systems.

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

10.11.2025 11:18 πŸ‘ 60 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social

More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...

05.11.2025 12:20 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).

04.11.2025 18:05 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Wow! For long I have been thinking that such a coupled model would be cool, but I haven't come up with good set of research questions for it to write a proposal. I also have had spatial model in mind, but it's probably wise to start with an aggregated model.

30.10.2025 08:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...

The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.

30.10.2025 08:25 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer

academic.oup.com/bioscience/a...

29.10.2025 16:52 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4
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If you are interested in a postdoc position on the Stanford campus on the climate effects of a slowdown/shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, please contact me.

Atmosphere or ocean modeling experience is a plus.

sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-c...

28.10.2025 13:50 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

One of my staff asked an interesting question today; to what extent companies can #patent the ideas behind 'negative emission technologies'. Their reason for asking was a company filing a patent that covers many aspects of the use of ocean alkalinity enhancement for sequestering CO2.

13.10.2025 06:22 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Challenges and opportunities in scaling enhanced weathering for carbon dioxide removal - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Commercial investment in enhanced rock weathering for carbon dioxide removal on agricultural lands is growing rapidly. This Review explores the potential of large-scale deployment, outlining the challenges faced in science, policy and governance to scale the technology.

Like all other COβ‚‚ removal (CDR) techniques, significantly more research is needed over the next few decades to determine whether enhanced rock weathering is a viable method for CDR.

03.10.2025 10:13 πŸ‘ 68 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

For nature and hiking, I would also suggest BC. Based on one short visit, Vancouver was also very nice city with beautiful views on the sea and mountains and functional transport system. As a city, Montreal was a great place to live, but Quebec's nature was quite similar to Finland.

03.10.2025 05:27 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Two curves show how the median is different depending on the scenario.

Two curves show how the median is different depending on the scenario.

We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database.

High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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02.10.2025 10:02 πŸ‘ 51 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4

I made a list (or 'starter pack') of Land Surface Modelers, because that's the kind of thing one does on #bluesky. Please tell your friends and also (v. important) TELL ME if you want to be added. We need more people here! go.bsky.app/Mw4tJ3t

10.11.2024 21:58 πŸ‘ 89 πŸ” 45 πŸ’¬ 30 πŸ“Œ 1
IPCC AR7 Chapter Scientists | ICTP The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in the process of preparing its Seventh Assessment report (AR7). The IPCC Working Groups are seeking highly motivated early-career researchers f...

Are you a highly motivated early-career researcher from a developing country or a country in transition, and want to be a Chapter Scientist in the next IPCC report?

Then here is your chance. Deadline 18 October 2025.

www.ictp.it/opportunity/...

26.09.2025 06:37 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Applying the ACE2 Emulator to SST Green's Functions for the E3SMv3 Global Atmosphere Model The Ai2 Climate Emulator broadly captures the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative response to local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies ACE and EAMv3's global TOA radiation sensitivity to all S...

New paper out. In which we helped the folks at the Allen Institute for AI (AI2) show that their climate emulator does a good (though not perfect) job at reproducing E3SMs' response to different SST boundary conditions.

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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

25.09.2025 17:30 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Do you think climate science needs to be better communicated? We do too! That's why we are looking for a climate science communication specialist to join the Technical Support Unit of the IPCC Working Group I.
All details can be found here: www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/c...
Please share!

22.09.2025 10:51 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks for the clarification! I appreciate the character limits, but I think it's good to include the assumption of current policies when giving the 97% certainty. It's important to also communicate that 2 Β°C is still (likely) avoidable if we implement proper mitigation policies.

19.09.2025 06:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0