Boz

Chile’s Boric Was Not the Failure He Is Made Out to Be Boric accomplished a string of policy successes long after he had been declared a lame duck for having lost the constitutional reform process.

The conventional wisdom is that Chile’s outgoing President Gabriel Boric was a failure. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social), that verdict ignores a string of successes he achieved long after being written off as a lame duck.

U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.

"For Trump and his team, removing the people running states and criminal groups that threaten the U.S. is decisive, because individual leaders matter more than systems or institutions. It is a 'kingpin strategy' on a global scale."

I wish I'd come up with that, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social!

U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on the El Mencho Raid Obscures Deeper Divides Mexico and the U.S. measure the success of any individual mission—as well as the overall campaign against cartels—differently.

The El Mencho raid was a genuine moment of U.S.-Mexico cooperation. But as WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes, the two countries measure the success of any mission—and the broader campaign against cartels—very differently.

Venezuela’s Authoritarian Allies: The Ties That Bind? (No. 43)

If you want to go deeper, I wrote a chapter back in 2021 about Venezuela-Iran relations that looked into how the two countries coordinated on sanctions evasion
www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/...

We’ll Soon Find Out If Iran Really Poses a Threat in Latin America The current conflict between Israel and Iran should put to the test all the threat analyses about Iran’s presence in the Western Hemisphere that have been written over the past several decades.

Can Iran retaliate via its proxies in Latin America? See my column from last June reviewing what is known/speculated, and cautions that perhaps the fact that no successful attack has occurred since 1994 means Iran in LatAm is an overanalyzed paper tiger. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/israel-iran-...

How safe is Mexico? El Mencho is dead; now what? - February 2026 Two different analyses today. Hope you enjoy the both.

For today's newsletter, I'm writing to two different audiences. First, some simple answers to how I view Mexico's security situation right now. Second, detail on how the CJNG will evolve now that El Mencho has met Santa Muerte. boz.substack.com/p/how-safe-i...

Venezuela’s Governance Is What Makes Its Oil Industry ‘Uninvestable’ As long as the Chavistas remain in power in Caracas, nothing Trump does will change how U.S. companies view Venezuela.

As long as the Chavistas remain in power in Caracas, nothing Trump does will change how U.S. companies view Venezuela, WPR columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

For Presidents' Day in the US, I used AI to build a map showing how old the presidents in the hemisphere are. claude.ai/public/artif...

For Mexico’s Sheinbaum, It’s Getting Harder to Be a ‘Trump Whisperer’ Just a month into 2026, managing the U.S.-Mexico relationship is proving to be even more challenging than in 2025.

Just a month into 2026, managing the U.S.-Mexico relationship is proving to be even more challenging than in 2025, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Venezuelan opposition leader Machado says a close ally was kidnapped hours after prison release Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says one of her closest allies has been kidnapped hours after being released from prison.

BREAKING: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado says Juan Pablo Guanipa, a former governor and one of her closest allies, was kidnapped hours after being released from prison.

Venezuela - Still choosing between Chaos or Dictatorship Maduro’s removal changed everything and changed nothing.

"The mirror images of the first two stages of those plans mean Venezuela doesn’t get to find out whose plan they are following until stage three. In practice, there is no neutral way to ‘wait and see’ which plan wins."
boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...

Haiti's transitional council deepens political chaos by voting to oust the prime minister A member of Haiti’s transitional presidential council has announced that a majority of the panel has voted to fire the country’s embattled Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as the country’s politic...

Haiti's presidential transition council has fired the PM despite warnings from essentially everyone in the international community not to do so. They are betting that the world is too distracted to respond to their power grab. apnews.com/article/hait...

Peru's president embroiled in scandal over failure to disclose meetings with Chinese businessman Peruvian President Jose Jeri is facing a preliminary investigation by the country's prosecutor as Congress looks to begin impeachment proceedings, after his recent meetings with a Chinese businessman ...

Peru's Congress considering impeaching President Jose Jeri over unreported meetings with a Chinese businessman seeking an energy project concession. One unreported meeting may just be a mistake. Two is a scandal. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Will there be regime change in Cuba in 2026? It depends on the US.

"The key variable is what the US decides to do. The US has the ability to push out Diaz-Canel and the entire Cuban dictatorship, but it would be a big commitment without a guarantee that what comes next would be good for the US."
boz.substack.com/p/will-there...

Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Is Only the Beginning The U.S. operation in Venezuela to seize Nicolas Maduro confirms that Latin America must take Trump’s military threats seriously.

The U.S. operation in Venezuela to seize Nicolas Maduro confirms that Latin America must take Trump’s military threats seriously, columnist James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Venezuela Scenarios - January 2026 Does US involvement keep Venezuela out of the chaos box? Or make it more likely?

Today's newsletter contains a discussion about potential scenarios in Venezuela boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...

Eight initial comments on Maduro's detention Joy, chaos, uncertainty.

My quick write-up of events: boz.substack.com/p/eight-init...

Venezuela - Choosing between Chaos or Dictatorship Is Maduro’s consolidated dictatorship so bad that chaos is better? What if those are the two most likely options and you must choose?

In early December, I wrote thoughts about Venezuelan transition scenarios. The dice are being rolled. boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...

What good scenarios could emerge in Latin America in 2026? An optimistic vision to balance the pessimism and reality.

It's Christmas week. So here are three optimistic scenarios for Latin America in 2026 to counter the usual pessimism. boz.substack.com/p/what-good-...

Mapping the region's ideological landscape - December 2025
boz.substack.com/p/mapping-th...

Why Is Trump Giving Nicaragua’s Ortega a Free Pass? If Trump wanted to demonstrate resolve against authoritarianism and Chinese influence in Latin America, Nicaragua should be the textbook case.

If Trump wanted to demonstrate resolve against authoritarianism and Chinese influence in Latin America, Nicaragua should be the textbook case, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Chile - Notes on Kast's election - December 2025 Chile's pendulum demands change

My comments on Chile's election: boz.substack.com/p/chile-note...

Spectacular loss by Honduras' governing party spurs reflection and criticism Honduras’ governing LIBRE party experienced a spectacular collapse in the presidential election, going from more than 50% of the vote four years ago to less than 20% this time.

Good AP article on how Libre failed in Honduras apnews.com/article/hond...

Nobel Peace Prize 2025 The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 was awarded to Maria Corina Machado "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transi...

This is a fantastic speech by Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Chair of the Nobel Committee, in defense of democracy in general, and specifically in Venezuela, as they award the Peace Prize to Maria Corina Machado. Go read it here:
www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace...

Trump’s ‘Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine Is No Doctrine at All The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy offers no guidance for the immediate challenges it faces in Latin America.

The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy offers no guidance for the immediate challenges it faces in Latin America, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Venezuela - Choosing between Chaos or Dictatorship Is Maduro’s consolidated dictatorship so bad that chaos is better? What if those are the two most likely options and you must choose?

Today's newsletter argues that everyone is wrong about their preferred scenario in Venezuela, while Scenario B (chaos) may not be the worst-case outcome. It's intended to provoke a strong response and some rethinking. boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-...

Corruption—and Trump—Loomed Over Honduras’ Presidential Election Questions about the validity of the results are likely to sabotage the next president’s legitimacy from their first day in office.

Like many other recent elections in Latin America, this one was defined by how angry most Hondurans are at the entire political system, James Bosworth (@bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social) writes.

Colombia - FARC/EMC scandal shakes Petro's government It's never a good month for a scandal. It's a very bad month when the president has just been sanctioned, and there is an aircraft carrier nearby.

Example of how my backwards and broken writing process works:

Step one: make meme
Step two: write 600 word serious analysis of meme that informs readers about breaking news

boz.substack.com/p/colombia-f...

In response to this morning's Washington Post article saying the Trump administration considered dropping leaflets on Venezuela for Maduro's birthday today.

White House blew past legal concerns in deadly strikes on drug boats The Trump administration sidestepped skeptical lawyers across national security agencies as it pursued a military campaign against alleged narcotraffickers, officials say.

More details than I've seen previously on the legal debate www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...