Professor Matthew England FAA

Anthropogenic activities are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to these increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. However, directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) levels from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both Ca and P have decreased steadily over the same period. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. Studies indicate that, after this time, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to CO2 accumulation in the body, has the potential to cause a range of adverse health effects. These findings highlight the urgent need for significant reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions to safeguard public health.

does anyone have any insight into whether this is a legit conclusion?
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Come join us! 3 year postdoc available to work with @profmattengland.bsky.social, @mad-ros.bsky.social and myself at ANU on modelling ocean - ice shelf interactions.

Closes 4th March. If you're going to Ocean Sciences and want to chat about it, let me know!

jobs.anu.edu.au/jobs/postdoc...

Fellow Johnston This is "Fellow Johnston" by Australian Academy of Science on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.

Vale Prof Emma Johnston AO FAA FTSE

The Academy is deeply saddened to hear of the passing of one of our Fellows, Prof Emma Johnston AO FAA FTSE. She was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science in 2022 recognising her leadership in the field of marine ecology, 🧵

vimeo.com/762105195

Driving discovery: UNSW receives $70m for two Centres of Excellence Two new national research centres will unite leading experts to tackle challenges in ocean sustainability and quantum computing – areas critical to Australia’s future prosperity.

Excited to be the new home for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Our Future Oceans, led by @profmattengland.bsky.social here at UNSW Science www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/new...

Thanks Helen!!! Was such a great team effort! Looking forward to our joint work across the Centre — and thanks for taking on the Deputy Director role from UQ!! 🙏🙏🙏

Not every day we get 35 x 10⁶ AUD for ocean research.

rms.arc.gov.au/RMS/Report/D...

Excellent job from Our Future Oceans team! 🌊

Congrats @profmattengland.bsky.social, @adele-morrison.bsky.social, @andyhogg.bsky.social, @janzika.bsky.social, @nicolamaher.bsky.social and many more!!!

Thanks Matt!! I had fantastic Centre Directors such as yourself to aspire to!

From Data to Decisions: How ACEAS Improves Climate and Ecosystem Projections YouTube video by ACEAS

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean hold critical clues about our changing climate – understanding this change is essential for communities worldwide.

Watch our latest video to find out how ACEAS is improving physical climate and ecosystem projections.

🎬 Watch now: youtu.be/Us2a4ulf404

Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...

New research published today in @nature.com shows the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – the Southern Hemisphere’s most influential climate driver – has reached its most positive state in more than a millennium.

Read the Nature paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Want a state-of-the-art explainer on the big changes occurring in the Antarctic?

Check out this recent briefing, delivered to COP30 @iccinet.bsky.social

Very much designed for the non-expert, so don't be afraid to dip in!

www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw... 1/2

The weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC - potentially causing cooler winters in Europe as often explained by @rahmstorf.bsky.social) is only part of the even faster weakening of global ocean circulation that could harm nutrients transport to the sea surface #Antarcic 🧪

Thanks Henri! Agreed that the big problem is the commitment to future MW input, which is set to be long-lived, nonlinear, and bad for SLR and also overturning stability. And I agree the overturning will eventually re-establish once the MW input stabilises, but that could be 1000+ years away.

“This is a wake-up call,” said author and ACEAS Deputy Director, @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW). “The evidence shows us clearly that the MOC has slowed down, and if this trend continues the impacts on human societies, climate and ecosystems will be profound.”

Thank you! Yes the Antarctic MOC doesn’t drive as much poleward heat transport as the AMOC. But it is critical for recycling nutrients back to the sea surface. And there are concerns it can lead to more shelf water warming — an amplifying feedback.

Not downplaying the seriousness of an AMOC collapse — and not aiming to mislead! :-) Was just pointing out the Antarctic overturning is likely closer to being forced to a collapsed state. Did you watch the talk?

Yeah true that a Stonmel type irreversibility is not necessarily a thing here— but switching off Antarctic melt could take 1000s of years on our current trajectory. I meant a tipping point where a collapse is inevitable, and a stable off state would persist for a long long time.

☺️🙏 Thanks Seth!

"The pace of change is already at about a 30% decline. This just tells you how critically urgent carbon emissions reductions are, because we need to give this overturning circulation every chance of not tipping over what seems to be a very perilous & near tipping point"
#ClimateEmergency
#Antarctica

If you’re interested in why the #Antarctic overturning circulation is very likely closer to a tipping point than the #AMOC, I touch on the topic in this 10 minute talk presented virtually today at #COP30. Starts at approx. 20 min mark.

Attention all Subantarctic Mode Water enthusiasts ☺️; check out this lovely new paper led by Zhi Li with Sjoerd Groeskamp, @alexhaumann.bsky.social Ivana Cerovečki and Lynne Talley; exploring propagating signals of SAMW anomalies tracing their origins to the tropics. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...

Overlooked melting in East Antarctica could skew sea level rise projections - ACEAS New research into how East Antarctica’s ice shelves melt reveals future global sea-level rise predictions could be significantly underestimated.

🧊 New research reveals an overlooked Antarctic process that may skew sea level rise projections.

☀️ A team led by Dr @fabiobdias.bsky.social (ACEAS/UNSW) found East Antarctica ice shelves melt in summer bursts as sea ice retreats and warm water flows underneath.

🔗 antarctic.org.au/overlooked-m...

Unfortunately not. We still have a situation where policymakers think Antarctica is too far away to matter. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected - Nature Observations and climate models suggest that the global sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 was not unexpected and would have been nearly impossible without anthropogenic warming.

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊
Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

#Matt_England 2021 post64
@profmattengland.bsky.social
6 pumps run the global ocean current.
2 northern pumps are 15% weak #AMOC
4 southern pump are 30% weak #AOC
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
#TP2.16.2
x.com/bratananium/...

Finally, some excellent resources on the 2023 SST anomalies:

@polarocean.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/pola...

@trackow.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/trac...

bsky.app/profile/mice...

@tguinaldo.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/tgui...

@profmattengland.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/prof...

#7A2.12 #AMOC and #AOC influences:
8. Teleconnections to Other Global Climate Impacts and Tipping Points.
@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social
What happens in the Atlantic doesn't just stay in the Atlantic.
@profmattengland.bsky.social
What happens in the
Antarctic
doesn't just stay in the Antarctic.

post52.3 ice shelves melt, from ocean below.
"It’s from the ocean back to the ice, and then back into the ocean again,
that can trigger a runaway change where we do see the overturning potentially collapse altogether"
@profmattengland.bsky.social said.
// same as #AMOC
grist.org/climate/anta...

#Matt_England 2025 post54
@profmattengland.bsky.social
1) ice shelves melt
2) Antarctic Overturning circulation slows
3) Less nutrients for phytoplankton moves up
4) less fish
5) less food for humans
@polarrobs.bsky.social
go.nature.com/45H0bqS
grist.org/climate/anta...

#Matt_England 2025 post61
The relentless warming of Antarctica and its surrounding waters is a long-term trend — a sort of chronic sickness for the far south.

@profmattengland.bsky.social "Every fraction of a degree" matters
go.nature.com/45H0bqS
grist.org/climate/anta...