Sergi Basco

Iran oil shock: the EU has very few options to limit the war’s economic impact – and prevent a recession Many of the measures rolled out during the 2022 Ukraine crisis aren’t viable for Europe today.

A quick post on the options of EU to limit the economic effects of the oil price shock. Markets seems to put too much faith in TACO.

How Trump’s renewed tariff chaos will stifle investment around the world For the foreseeable future, the only certainty in US trade is uncertainty.

US Tariffs: It wasn't a national emergency but it is indeed a chaotic trade policy. This uncertainty will end up harming everyone.

The EU-Mercosur agreement will have winners and losers – but it won’t make a major economic impact Despite fierce protests from farmers, South American countries will still contribute only a fraction of other non-EU producers.

My take on the (not exactly) free trade agreement between EU and Mercosur. The punchline: much ado about nothing.

The current Spanish housing boom is very different from the bubble in the 2000s. No, I don't see bubbles everywhere:) My reasoning is summarized in this article at @ara.cat (in catalan and link to English version inside).

Existe una burbuja de la inteligencia artificial y esto es lo que podría pasar si estallase El valor de las acciones relacionadas con la inteligencia artificial se ha disparado en los últimos meses, pero una burbuja no puede mantenerse inflada para siempre.

"Parece que existe una burbuja de IA, pero no tiene por qué acabar repitiéndose lo ocurrido en 2008". ✍️ Sergi Basco (@ub.edu) 

Yes, there is an AI investment bubble – here are three scenarios for how it could end The value of AI-related stocks has ballooned in recent months. What happens when the bubble bursts?

My take on the (yes) AI bubble, and the good, the bad, and ugly consequences.

theconversation.com/yes-there-is...

The euro ‘stablecoin’: how this new crypto venture could threaten the eurozone’s already fragile economy Private banks are launching a euro-pegged cryptocurrency. It could spell disaster for Europe’s economy.

9 EZ banks just announced that they will launch an Euro stablecoin. If they have green light, it will likely add fragility to EZ financial system and make future financial crises worse.

Reacting to US-EU trade deal. Very weak response of EU. Negative effects for EU heterogeneous across countries and sectors. It seems the car industry and Germany may be the biggest losers. Spain too, as it depends on both cars and German cars.

Elizabeth Warren: American People Will ‘Pay the Price’ for GENIUS Act - Decrypt Sen. Elizabeth Warren slams Trump's GENIUS Act crypto legislation, warning that Americans will "pay the price."

Following my latest post in The Conversation
I was asked to say a word on @warren.senate.gov
comments on Genius Act. As I wrote, I share her concern on potential negative consequences of the law... but not just for US citizens!
decrypt.co/331818/eliza...

Nice article at @FT. Glad to see that my post linking the Genius Act to financial crisis reflected the mainstream view
theconversation.com/genius-act-t...

@npr.org has very similar post as my recent one. Same analogies included. Stablecoins are like casino chips but need to trust that the casino have enough funds! I go one step ahead linking them to potential global financial crisis.

theconversation.com/genius-act-t...

Ley Genius: Estados Unidos va a intentar regular las criptomonedas, pero eso no las va a librar del riesgo La normativa aprobada en el Senado de EE. UU. permitiría a grandes empresas emitir criptomonedas. Esto plantea un interrogante primordial, ¿estará garantizada su estabilidad?

La nueva ley sobre stablecoins promete estabilidad, pero podría sembrar el caos financiero. Aquí un experto explica cómo:

[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Genius Act: This New US Crypto Law Could Pave the Way for the Next Global Financial Crisis, by Yves Smith https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/genius-act-this-new-us-crypto-law-could-pave-the-way-for-the-next-global-financial-crisis.html

Genius Act: this new US cryptocurrency law could pave the way for the next global financial crisis The legislation would allow corporations to issue their own ‘stablecoins’, which are essentially digital casino chips.

The US Genius Act could lead to the next global financial crisis. This is the punchline of my new post.
theconversation.com/genius-act-t...

Habitatge i productivitat: com l'encariment dels immobles empobreix l'economia Un estudi recent mostra que l'augment del preu dels pisos distorsiona l'accés al crèdit necessari perquè les empreses inverteixin

Article in @ara.cat featuring my research (with D. Lopez-Rodriguez and E. Moral-Benito) on housing prices and productivity. "The housing bubble in Spain explains 40% of the fall in aggregate productivity of the country between 2003-2007". (Article in catalan).
empreses.ara.cat/empreses/hab...

🏘️ L’augment del preu de l’habitatge pot frenar la productivitat?

💬 Una recerca liderada pel professor @sbasco.bsky.social, publicada a The Economic Journal, mostra com l'encariment dels immobles pot distorsionar el crèdit empresarial i afavorir les empreses amb més actius immobiliaris.

🏘️ Can rising house prices hurt productivity?

💬 A new study led by @sbasco.bsky.social, published in The Economic Journal, reveals how increasing property prices can distort credit allocation in favour of firms with more real estate assets—regardless of their actual efficiency.

Import competition and labor regulation: Worker-level evidence How does labor regulation shape worker adjustment to import competition? We estimate the effect of collective agreements on French workers’ earnings d…

Labor regulation exacerbates the negative effects of import competition on workers' earnings. Especially among workers in low-wage occupations. We document these results for the increase in Chinese imports in France.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

¿Podría el euro sustituir al dólar como moneda de reserva mundial? Las monedas se basan en la confianza, y la política estadounidense está erosionando rápidamente la imagen del dólar como refugio seguro.

And now for something completely...well, it's the same post in Spanish. US policies are contributing to make the US dolar a non-global reserve.

theconversation.com/podria-el-eu...

Could the euro replace the dollar as global reserve currency? It’s not getting any less likely Currencies are built on trust, and US policy is quickly eroding the dollar’s image as a safe haven.

US policies contribute to make US dollar a non-global reserve currency, but it will take a (long) time for the Euro to replace it (if ever).

theconversation.com/could-the-eu...

IMF World Economic Outlook: economic uncertainty is now higher than it ever was during COVID Uncertainty is far worse for the economy than a fixed, high tariff.

My post about IMF forecast now in English. The punchline: we are in a world of Knightian uncertainty where bond vigilantes seem to be running away from US

theconversation.com/imf-world-ec...

Las previsiones globales del FMI: no es la crisis de la covid-19, pero eso no es un consuelo Para la economía es peor la incertidumbre a que haya aranceles más altos, pero definitivos, que permiten a las empresas reorganizar su producción y a los consumidores buscar alternativas de consumo.

Reacting to IMF forecast, Knightian uncertainty there we go ...

theconversation.com/las-previsio...

2 de abril en la Casa Blanca: ¿día de la liberación económica o día de los inocentes? No se sabe si los aranceles de Trump son definitivos o si se trata de una medida de presión para negociar nuevos gravámenes u otros acuerdos, pero esta incertidumbre es mala para la economía global.

I was asked to give my take on the latest (surely not last) Trump tariff announcement.

theconversation.com/2-de-abril-e...

Enamorado de los aranceles: el fin de la globalización económica Introducir aranceles que cambian por producto y país, y pretender que todo se produzca a nivel interno causaría perdidas de productividad en todo el mundo y el fin de la transición a un mundo de libre...

I was asked to write a quick comment on the announcement of the White House to impose tariffs around the globe (in Spanish)

theconversation.com/enamorado-de...

New at JIE: "The effect of import competition across occupations" by Sergi Basco, Maxime Liégey, Martí Mestieri, Gabriel Smagghue

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001