@davidpassmore
Distinguished Professor, Emeritus, Penn State University (https://davidpassmore.net). Member, Battle of Homestead Foundation. Live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Niagara Falls, New York, native. I post critical presentations & analyses of information I read.
BACK TO MARKET BASICS
Polymarket & Kalshi poisoned the well for using markets to aggregate information. People dismiss "prediction" markets as rigged gambling. However, real futures markets bar chicanery, manipulation, and insider trading as illegal. Compare:
bit.ly/SrSch
WHO RUNS YOUR VOTE?
In 2022, 87% of the money given to the campaign for Illinois governor came from billionaires. Elon Musk gave $1 million in checks to two individual voters during a contested Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year. Want more? See: nyti.ms/46NImb0
Sing along w/me: bit.ly/DCros
The costs are high relative to that opportunity, Michelle, as you assert.
IMMIGRATION: WHAT A FED BUDGET GAIN!
Between 1994 and 2023, immigrants created a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion in real 2024 US dollars, including $3.9 trillion in savings on interest on the debt. Without immigrants, public debt at all levels would be ≥205 % of GDP.
bit.ly/Immplus
"Around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s also a crucial route for shipment of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer."
~Paul Krugman
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/renewable-...
He added that the US Navy will begin escorting tankers “if necessary” and that the US “will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
NOW, TRUMP WANTS TO OFFER WAR INSURANCE?
Trump announced, “Effective IMMEDIATELY...the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide...political risk insurance...for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade...traveling through the Gulf.” bit.ly/4lwK9HP
SOME OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF WAR WITH IRAN
Replacing three $97 million jets shot down over Kuwait costs as much as providing 125,000 Americans with crucial food aid or providing healthcare to 100,000 American children.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/war-is-exp...
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS HEATS UP
Gas industry says it is ready to ramp up. But, in Washington, announcements are often treated as accomplishments. Gas doesn’t move on press releases; it moves on pipelines. Political and regulatory matters will have to support production increases.
Americans are cautious about AI, worried about jobs & risks, & favor regulation. Many people report feeling more concerned than excited about AI and believe its risks may outweigh its benefits. Recent university grads are feeling the pinch, as reported in NY Times:
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/o...
BANG, ZOOM! STRAIGHT TO THE MOON!
~ Ralph Kramden
Data Centers in space, not earth? Development of terrestrial centers is delayed, most frequently by public opposition. Better in the stars than as your neighbor? The idea might not be quite as crazy as it looks.
bit.ly/4cYOLnx
bit.ly/4b58Jug
bit.ly/4u8mMrG
Not yet official. But, "The Korea Institute for Strategic Studies noted: 'Given that South Korea faces ballistic missile threats from North Korea, the deployment of U.S. air defense assets to the Middle East could create significant problems from our perspective.'"
INTERCEPTOR SHORTAGE?
Start a war you can't end?
The UAE ordered >1,000 Patriot missile interceptors in the past 15 years. That is a few days of current consumption. The U.S. is relocating Patriots from South Korea to the Middle East to address concerns about stockpile depletion.
bit.ly/4cl9zWa
TRUMP VOTING TAKEOVER?
The Cato Institute reports that "Pro-Trump activists are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.”
bit.ly/4l3JSeS
POSTED WITHOUT ANY MORE COMMENT THAN THE GRAPH OFFERS
COINCIDENCE? YOU DECIDE.
On this day in history:
- English novelist of "Lady Chatterley's Lover" DH Lawrence dies (1930);
- James Bond actor Daniel Craig born (1968).
"Vague objectives, inflated threat perceptions, and regime-change fantasies threaten to pull the United States into a costly war that Americans don’t want. The United States is barreling toward another Middle East crisis of its own making."
www.cato.org/blog/cato-ex...
READ AT:
contrarian.substack.com/p/trumps-war...
Students who attend highly effective schools rather than low-effective schools are 11% more likely to enroll in college, are 31% more likely to graduate from a four-year college, and earn 25% (or $10,500) more annually at age 30.
www.nber.org/papers/w34913
Between 1992 and 2021, increases in minimum wages raised the likelihood of robot adoption in manufacturing.
www.nber.org/papers/w34895
U.S. importers, wholesalers, retailers & consumers, rather than by foreign exporters, have borne recent tariffs. These tariffs led to a reorganization of U.S. supply chains away from China to third countries, but exposed the U.S. indirectly by imports from these countries.
www.nber.org/papers/w34915
The long-term effects of measles for children and adults include significant long-term health consequences, namely neurological, respiratory, and immune system-related complications.
bit.ly/4l3eahO
Symptoms of measles
MEASLES-FRIENDLY?
When a West Texas couple's unvaccinated 6-year-old daughter died of measles, the family still opposed vaccination and welcomed measles as a means to “get an infection out.”
bit.ly/47jfJCF
Powered by the "medical freedom movement"(see article by PaulOffit at bit.ly/MedFre)
THE MAYFLOWER SAILS BACK
"America’s own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe."
on.wsj.com/4rUihzx
“Every bad precedent originated as a justifiable measure.”
~ Gaius Sallustius Crispus, Roman historian and politician (86 BCE - c. 35 BCE)
PERSUADING VACCINE PREVENTION
"Giving people more data rarely convinces them."
nyti.ms/4cekssR
Persuasion requires framing messages pertinent to people's lives. Pathos conditions ethos. Narratives told that are faithful to people's lives can influence emotions, behaviors, and even morals.
