I think so too.
I think they're gambling on more helpful acts from the Republicans and that seems to have paid off for them. Whether it's enough to prevent Russia's weakness becoming obvious is an open question.
4\ there could be effects from taxes arriving a bit later etc. But this looks bad for Russia.
3\ With 6% official inflation that should be +6% VAT revenue.
VAT increased from 20 to 22%, which should be +10% revenue.
AND they changed the rules to hit more companies with VAT plus they claim economic growth Vs Feb 2025... They should be beating +16% but it's actually +10%?
2\ "non-oil and gas revenues increased — plus 4.1% year on year."
Meanwhile VAT "increased by 10.8%, to 2.2 trillion rubles. (this is 46% of the total budget revenue)."
Russia budgeted for +20% growth in VAT receipts, providing +3tr rub.
They are behind.
1\ Russia's Feb budget results out with 3.45tr rub deficit. IMO result is good for decent people, aka bad for Russia.
Expenses +2.5%, Vs 6% official inflation. Not much room for them to increase spending.
The real bad news for Russia is in non-oil&gas revenues.
3\ anyway, since the new weekly issue is bigger than last week's, that's a (temporary) increase in money supply.
Another factor: banks pay interest to the Central Bank (CBR). CBR profits are partly sent to the federal budget.
This is getting revenue for Russia.
2\ The weekly repo cash is "created" & issued the day after the auction, i.e. tomorrow, and must be returned 7 days after that. It's then "destroyed".
The one-day thing is issued today and returned tomorrow. Maybe they desperately needed cash to bridge until new repo tomorrow?
1\ Huge repo "temporary money creation" in Russia today.
- 3.08tr rub for today until tomorrow
- 3.66tr rub in the regular weekly issue.
The weekly issue is up from 2.99tr last week. In prior years it dropped around this time.
Looks like serious liquidity issues.
Good news. This looks like totally new production inside Germany.
I brought this up earlier.
WHY did the republicans, who had full power, decide to slow down strategic oil purchases in 2025 when prices were low and they were about to start a middle east war?
Pete Hegseth talks about:
“peace in Ukraine.”
But the message people hear is familiar.
Stop arming the victim.
Reward the aggressor.
Pressure Ukraine to give up land so the invasion can be declared a success.
In Moscow, that line already has a name.
"Strategy."
2\ re what I called the "Bakhmut argument", I've heard it from many people I think are smart, including Ukrainians who should know more than me. They might know something I don't, but I've only really seen the simple argument I quoted above and the public argument doesn't persuade me.
1\ interesting thread! I wonder what the real fundraising numbers are now.
Meditaziona did show an aging of those dying. 45-50 was most common age of death. Not sure how that links to the ChrsO thread, but it supports the anecdotes of declining Russian troop quality.
I love that you're posting updates so we can see what actually happened after the explosions. Thank you!
Won't the March oil MET be based on February prices?
So I'd expect the income boost in April.
Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is getting some attention with the Trump admin refusing to use it because "reasons". What isn't is the failure to replenish it after the Biden admin tapped it in 2022, which mebbes would have been a sensible thing to do before launching a war in the Middle East?
Trump is today telling every member of the US military that it is ok with him if Russia helps Iran kill them--every one.
Once again Americans, Trump looks at US military personnel as suckers and losers that he can sacrifice for his own glory and profit. This is who leads
Iran took out a 1.5 billion dollar radar with a $35,000 drone. It will reportedly take about 7 years to replace the radar.
www.twz.com/news-feature...
Thanks Jakub, I'll go grab sources and save. Didn't pop up in my quick search.
What an expensive loss.
I did a quick look.
Russian failed satellite was launched 2014. So it's old.
At least some of the replacement types, including Ekspress-AMU3&7 used Thales-Alenia Space Comms equipment. I.e. European tech.
5\ A lot now depends on what happens with oil prices and Russia sanctions.
I'm watching to see if the Republicans see another chance for them to work to save Putin's war and prevent peace. If they weaken sanctions on Russia, that's what they're doing.
4\ Russia's 2025 deficit was over 8tr rub. They used up region & pension funds to hide a lot off the federal books.
They are on course for worse this year & already budgeted military spending cuts.
They were facing financial disaster then Republicans started their Iran war and spiked oil prices.
3\ Last year's "other" income was 2tr rub in Feb. They'd need ~20% revenue increase there to offset the falling oil & gas revenue.
Maybe it's possible with the inflation and all the new tax increases?
But if they do manage +20% "other" income, the deficit will be ~0.3tr rub larger than last year.
2\ They've already spent more nominal than last year. But with official ~6% inflation, final spend of 8.5tr would be roughly constant real terms.
February oil&gas income should be notably less than last year. Maybe 0.3-0.4tr less.
1\ February will be interesting! Russian budget reports of expenses:revenue in tr rub:
👉 28th Feb 2025: 7.8:2.6
👉 Prelim total Feb 2025: 8.0:5.3
👉 28th Feb 2026: 8.2:2.5
They're doing worse than last year.
Last year they added 0.2tr in expenses and 2.8tr rub in revenue on the final day.
Trump saying it is OK that Russia is helping Iran kill Americans has even the most MAGA-addled unable to respond. They have nowhere to go, except express blind loyalty to their master. If he says it, it must be right.
Two people confirmed that Moscow had provided Tehran with intelligence on the location of US military assets in the region, including planes and warships. ft.trib.al/cZbGDEU
Do you think this is not a decoy because of the burn marks? You sound pretty confident it's real.
I know you have tons of experience IDing losses, would like to learn what convinced you.
Interesting choice by the Paralympics Committee to reward the Russian torture machine.
