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Breathin' Orange Fire

@orangefire

Astros Fan. Analytics Guy. Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com "Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."

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Latest posts by Breathin' Orange Fire @orangefire

Despite all this, the good news for Democrats is that it will not take a big swing to win the House majority. They need only a 5 seat swing.

12.03.2026 13:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Polarization is the big culprit here. More and more places are strong D or strong R, reducing the ability of swings in the electorate to change seats. And that's even compared to 8 years ago, much less 40.

12.03.2026 13:36 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Democrats Advantages in 2026 Midterm Blunted by Lack of Republican-Held Opportunity Districts It will take a massive Democratic vote swing to reach 2018 levels of seat swing.

More punditry from me.

The good news for Dems is that the public is moving in their direction. The bad news is that it will translate into a relatively small seat swing this November.

medium.com/3streams/dem...

12.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sex and Candy night at the ballpark may attract the wrong crowd though.

12.03.2026 02:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Good flag colors --> good uniform colors.

12.03.2026 01:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Is the Pope Italian was an expression for generations, but now it has to be replaced with Does a bear shit in the woods?

12.03.2026 01:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Olean, Olean, Olean, Ohhh---lean.
I'm begging of you please don't take my coach.

11.03.2026 23:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image
11.03.2026 22:33 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you Coach McMahon for your service

11.03.2026 18:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Mama Rogers picks.

11.03.2026 16:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The best part of waking up.

11.03.2026 15:54 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It’s fun to see Mark De Rosa eat shit in embarrassing fashion given that he works for Rob Manfred and has been part of the effort to try to sell players on a salary cap. Cream rises to the goddamn top, eh?

11.03.2026 14:03 πŸ‘ 180 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 3

Just looking at that still, it looks 1 step up from porn. Basically music video before Thriller quality.

11.03.2026 14:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I mean, if it's a big dumber competition, Italy is a strong contender.

11.03.2026 14:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm grumbly in this thread, but that's at Landigan and his writing.

Thanks to both of you for responding and answering my question. I appreciate knowing this answer better.

11.03.2026 01:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Things I noticed watching NJ Gov coverage from here in the state:

1. Local journos were ridiculously exceedingly resistant to acknowledge how nationalized the race was, and
2. National journos treated everything like Nov 24 was frozen in amber.

I found it quite annoying at best.

11.03.2026 01:57 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Dems winning a Trump +9 this year isn't stunning. So Im trying to understand why he would use that word, instead of developing credibility with his audience by describing the world as it is.

If he's the go-to guy on NH, shouldn't he know how nationalized elections are.

11.03.2026 01:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Does he not read anything about national politics and that's why he's describing this election as stunning.

11.03.2026 01:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Who is the journalist in the screenshot and why is he so willing to essentially admit he hasn't paid attention to politics since November 2024?

11.03.2026 01:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sheltered indeed.

bsky.app/profile/chri...

11.03.2026 01:19 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Chris Hayes has spent a very sheltered life if he doesn't have Geoege as one of his top 5 Straits.

11.03.2026 01:12 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social Respectfully submitted for this weeks links

10.03.2026 18:53 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We can only hope.

10.03.2026 18:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Democrats had a turnout increase in 2018, but still had half a million fewer votes than in the GOP primary. Cruz won in November by 214,000 votes.

In 2026, that margin is gone. So should be the rating of β€œlikely Republican.” The turnout numbers show this race is probably closer to a tossup.

10.03.2026 18:12 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

As part of my day job as a political science professor, I've engaged in some punditry.

Democratic turnout was up over 1 million votes in the 2026 primary, driven by anger at the Trump Administration. The Lone Star State is in play in November

thehill.com/opinion/camp...

10.03.2026 18:12 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Firm, but fair.

10.03.2026 02:43 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

#GeauxTigers

10.03.2026 01:46 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

bsky.app/profile/oran...

10.03.2026 01:16 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Communism in theory: From each according to his ability; to each according to his needs.

Communism in reality:

10.03.2026 01:12 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
a football player stands on the field with a flag that says fox on it ALT: a football player stands on the field with a flag that says fox on it
09.03.2026 16:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0