⬆️ Review of recent outlook reports published by the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, the European Commission, the WEF, Moody’s, S&P, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, Allianz, Amundi, Black Rock, Bank of China and Deutsche Bank
Wars and the AI bubble – the downside risk scenarios to the global economic outlook 2026
policyhive.org/wars-and-the...
Both proposals wont survive the budgetary process. And yet, the issues wont fade away. France:
➡️ is “outperforming” worldwide by the success of its billionaires and millionaires.
➡️ ranks among the most affected by tax avoidance practices.
➡️ has one of the most regressive tax policy mix of all.
Legal uncertainty of the proposals was a central argument for opponents. The case of the MNE taxation was a relevant one. The legal case against the Zucman tax was far weaker. Ironically, the MNE taxation proposal passed, while the more robust Zucman tax was rejected.
Looking back at the sessions & media coverage, 3 problematic framings:
➡️ Proposals most often portrayed as additional taxation rather than redress for under-taxation
➡️False distinction between “productive” & “unproductive” assets
➡️Tax justice overshadowed by tax burden & social security cost
End-October, the French National Assembly discussed two tax proposals: (i) a shift to MNE unitary taxation and (ii) a "Zucman tax" on the ultra-rich. My comments posted here ➡️ policyhive.org/deep-dive-in... and below
While household income remains under pressure. The picture is definitely of concern when looking at recent reports on individual givings to charities.
Private foundations’ foreign aid flows have been stagnating since 2021
Between 2024 & 2026, ODA is expected to decrease by -20% / USD48bn.
The year to come might be the most challenging one in the history of NGOs. All three key sources of NGO funding – households, public funding, philanthropies – are under stress. Added to that, an increasingly hostile political environment. policyhive.org/the-ngo-fund...
source:
IMF April 2024 www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
OECD Dec 2024 & March 2025 www.oecd.org/en/publicati... & www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
UN DESA Jan 2025 www.un.org/development/...
WB Jan 2025 www.worldbank.org/en/publicati...
Recap of the main downside risk scenarios listed in recent IMF, WB, OECD & UN DESA global economic outlook reports.
Et un grand pédagogue aussi ("Les dérives du capitalisme financier" 2004, avec Antoine Réberioux). En mars 2007 il présentait les enjeux du private equity lors d'une réunion syndicale int'le à Paris, qui fit date dans la compréhension syndicale du PE policyhive.org/wp-content/u...
merci! Sur les conditions d'acceptation du réarmement par la population fr, vous mettez l'accent sur la justice sociale. Ne faut-il pas aussi renforcer la transparence, le contrôle ("accountability") et l'évaluation de la performance des politiques de défense et de réarmement?
USAID shutdown will have dramatic consequences, for ODA flows overall (28% of total OECD countries' ODA in 2021), and for NGOs in particular: 20% of USAID funds (+USD8bn in 2021) were delivered via NGOs, highest rate among the top funders (Nordics excl).
data : one.oecd.org/document/DCD...
Tout à fait: si comparaison doit être faite, il faut prendre en compte l’ensemble des dépenses, publiques / privées / par répartition / par capitalisation. Une note à ce sujet policyhive.org/fr/la-france...
Pension pre-funding remains an Anglo-American matter, and by far. US, CAN, AUS & UK pension funds account for +83% of total pension assets in OECD countries. (source: www.oecd.org/en/publicati... )
➡️Moody's Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 (nov-24) www.moodys.com/research/Glo...
➡️Moody's 2025 Outlook (nov-24) www.moodys.com/research/Cre... www.moodys.com/research/Sov...
➡️S&P Global Credit Conditions Q4 2024 (oct-24) www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...
Source:
➡️OECD Economic Outlook (Dec-24) www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
➡️EC Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast (nov-24) economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-for...
➡️MF World Economic Outlook (oct-24) www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
Downside risk scenarios in recent flagship economic outlook reports by the IMF, OECD, EC and rating agencies #econsky
So far, Trump’s picks for his second administration include:
-5 billionaires
-8 major donors
-9 current or former lobbyists
-11 Fox contributors
-12 people who hosted or co-hosted events at Mar-a-Lago
-17 people associated with AFPI or Project 2025
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Raphael Rashid @koryodynasty Follow Breaking: President Yoon declares martial law in South Korea, citing North Korean threats and domestic "anti-state forces". Claims opposition's unprecedented impeachment attempts and budget cuts have paralysed government. Promises swift action to "rebuild and protect" ROK. 윤석열 대통령 긴급 특별담화 KBS LIVE KBS 뉴스 특보 "비상계엄 선포" 7:46 AM • 12/3/24 • 16K Views
Raphael Rashid @koryody... •9m Developing: Yoon cites 22 impeachment motions against government officials since taking office, with 10 more pending in current parliament. Claims this is "unprecedented not only globally but also in our nation's history since its founding". 01 1712 ) 23 Ill 5.8K 贝 企 Raphael Rashid @koryody... • 8m President Yoon accuses opposition of deliberately crippling state functions. Says opposition has paralysed judicial operations by intimidating judges, impeaching numerous prosecutors, and attempting to remove key ministers including defence minister. 179 • 21 1l 5.5K
Raphael Rashid @koryody...• 9m "Regarding the national budget, they have completely cut all major budgets for essential state functions, drug crime enforcement, and public safety maintenance, turning our nation into a drug haven and creating chaos in public security". 92 © 15 Ill 5.4K Raphael Rashid @koryody... 6m ... Major budget cuts cited as justification: 1 trillion won from disaster relief, 38.4 billion from childcare support, 4.1 trillion from youth employment initiatives. And military personnel compensation improvements blocked. 92 175 12 1l 4K 冂 ①
Raphael Rashid @koryody... • 7m "This budgetary outrage is nothing short of playing with the nation's finances. Using even the budget as a tool for political strife, the Democratic Party's legislative dictatorship has not hesitated to engage in what amounts to budget impeachment". 91 セ7 © 13 Ill 5.4K Raphael Rashid @koryody... • 1m "State affairs are paralysed, and citizens' sighs grow deeper. This is a clear anti-state action that tramples on the constitutional order of the free ROK and disrupts legitimate state institutions established by the Constitution and law, amounting to plotting an insurrection". 172 02 Il 675
⚠️ President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea declares martial law, says opposition impeachment attempts and budget cuts have paralyzed the government
Sad & shocking. S-Korea is a relatively young democracy. The transition since the 90s has been slow, particularly re civil & labour rights, but steady. And now, this.
other useful ref on FR income inequality & poverty:
➡️ elucid.media/analyse-grap...
➡️ www.insee.fr/fr/statistiq...
➡️ inegalites.fr/evol-inegali...
France used to be a low-growth-but-low-inequality country. This is over. Growth prospects remain low, but inequality - & poverty - are on the rise since 2017. There are the classic middle class squeezing and working poor issues, but there definitely is a Top 1% feast⬇️ (source: wid.world)
Crypto shills have a plot to leverage about $750 billion in public assets so the government can buy a million Bitcoins. Why? So crypto moguls can cash out into real money, @ryanlcooper.com reports: prospect.org/power/2024-1...
Trump is likely to appoint a Private Equity billionaire as Treasury Sec. Given that PE is really Public debt..what would that mean for the US economy? .. open.substack.com/pub/annpetti...
Spotted in IMF Oct WEO www.imf.org/en/Publicati... Of 3 downside risk scenarios 2025-2030:
👉 trade protectionism
👉 lower immigration
👉 tighter financial conditions
Lower immigration scenario has largest negative GDP impact for the US (& by far). For Europe, it's a close tie with trade protectionism.
👉Universal & transparent process for "determination" of non-compliance with the UN & OECD Principles
👉CLS performance indicators adapted to national contexts, not least for freedom of association, collective bargaining & more broadly the right to effective social dialogue / industrial relations.
Way forward:
👉Accountability & governance of boards, both businesses & investors
👉Explicit use of UN & OECD Principles (ref to the SDGs is nice but not enough!)
👉Due diligence at all levels, incl. upstream in the investment chain
