13/13 It is also worth noting that during Q1, the SEC dropped its charges against Coinbase—as it did with several other crypto companies. This means that one significant expense item will be removed from future projections.
12/13 According to Coinbase’s own guidance, operating expenses are expected to rise by approximately $50–$100 million compared to Q4.
11/13 Net Revenue Q1/25 prediction: $2,069.58 million (Q4: $2,197 million)
10/13 Other Revenue: I will not separately forecast other revenue streams, as I focus on aspects that can be tracked on the blockchain. My assumption is that these figures will remain close to those from Q4.
9/13 Blockchain Rewards: $171.9 million (Q4/2024: $214.9 million)
This time I have taken into account the value changes of all cryptocurrencies offered by Coinbase. Since the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies declined by roughly 20% during Q1/2025, a lower figure compared to Q4 is expected.
8/13 Consequently, USDC’s market capitalization rose from about $44 billion to $60 billion. However, the revenue from stablecoins appears to be slightly lower than before. There is some uncertainty with this forecast.
7/13 Stablecoin Revenue: $308.2m (Q4: $225.9 m)
The total market of stablecoins has increased from approximately $203b to $233.8b during in Q1. In particular, USDC experienced significant growth during Q1 because European crypto exchange clients can no longer use the most common stablecoin, USDT.
6/13 Total Subscription and Services Revenue: $683.1 million (Q4: $641.1 million) Coinbase’s own guidance set this revenue range at $685–$765 million, placing my projection near the lower end of that range.
5/13 Other Transaction Revenue: $55 million (Q4/2024: $67.7 million)
Although Base's blockchain volumes have performed well, they have remained at the same level as during Q4/2024. TVL has increased in ETH terms; however, due to a drop in ETH's price, the USD revenue is likely to fall.
4/13 Total Transaction Revenue: $1,386.48 million (Q4/2024: $1,556.0 million)
This time I will not estimate the breakdown of volumes between consumer and institutional clients, but positive news from both segments leads me to consider the Q4 distribution a reliable forecast.
3/13 Coinbase’s Q1 earnings will be released on May 8, 2025, providing ample time to observe the impact of global events before the report is published.
Below are my personal (not financial advisor) forecasts for the various earnings segments:
2/13 COIN's stock price has dropped approximately 40% since its previous peak earnings—a result of the stock’s strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements. Despite this, the earnings have remained nearly as strong as in Q4/24.
1/13 #Coinbase Q1/25 Earnings Projection
Because Wall Street banks struggle to analyze the blockchain sector effectively, I started predicting Coinbase's earnings last quarter. As my Total Revenue prediction of $2233m was quite close to the actual Q4/2024 revenue of $2271.6m. #FinancialForecast
10/11 Have others found preferable alternatives, and what experiences do you have?
Links to European alternative services and, for those free, secure email services:
9/11 Every country should consider who they want to vote into leadership and how it affects their own nation's exports.
8/11 To Americans: I still value you and consider you good people, and I hope you don't take this as an attack against you. The intention is to discuss how the poor diplomatic communication of your country's leadership affects your own country's exports.
7/11 I myself have been satisfied with an alternative search engine and an email service where I got a domain with my own name, even though my first and last name is one of the most common in Finland.
6/11 Location: In some cases, tracking can reveal the recipient's approximate location.
Device Information: You may receive information about the device on which the email was opened (e.g., phone, computer).
Time Spent: Some tools can show how long the recipient spent reading the email.
5/11 For example, the sender of an email can receive the following information from services that do not use protection:
Open Tracking: You can see if and when the recipient has opened your email.
Click Tracking: You can track which links in the email have been clicked and how many times.
4/11 Since data is what American big tech companies dominate with, after a little research, it's clear that it is highly recommended to use email that prevents tracking and to use it for social media platforms, or to give that data to someone other than a large corporation you don't want to support.
3/11 To my surprise, when I asked an AI for free and secure email services, ¾ were located in Europe and ¼ in India.
2/11 For me, the line has been crossed, and I am now willing to use a service that may not be the absolute best, but whose use does not support a national leadership that speaks with hostility, misleadingly, and the list goes on.
How I Pushed Tariffs to Pause (exaggerated)
The image is more related to the topic of this post, which is how European services can thank the US leadership for creating demand for their services by damaging their own country's brand and causing people to look for alternatives from other countries.
2/2 Establishing these values and realizing their benefits takes time, but they can unfortunately be destroyed quickly.
Obama's speech from yesterday was inspiring, Don't cast aside these values.
#FreedomOfSpeech #Unity #EthicalLeadership #LongTermThinking
1/2 There were times when the speeches of US presidents seemed to resonate with a high sense of morality, unity,
honesty, fair justice, and respect for freedom of speech.
I believe these are still important values and have my respect.
youtu.be/nU3E8r0n27w?...
#Values #Morality #Leadership #Justice
