We are trying to do a change in fixed income cutting back on usts into credit but keeps getting delayed due to operational/trading changes happening we need to push up discussions on. Last year to begin the year we went 20% intl equities and this year pushed more into RSP
biggest change was the cut out of SPX 100 into a more global growth orientation. in the all equity model cut OEF by 9% where 5.5 went to EFG and 3.5 to BLCR
regardless of multiplier, oil shock probably making private credit situation worse by moving rates higher and real wages lower
Internet remembers....i especially like he was concerned about tariffs and such from the first term
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We think core #PCE could climb to 3.4% y/y by Q2, a striking implication of the hot PCE-relevant components that complicates the Fed’s policy path. We see upside risk to this estimate if the oil-price shock persists.”
Pretty crazy how important the blockade of a trade route is right now
As @mikemadowitz.bsky.social says.... this chart will be really another picture in March 🛢️🔥
Shelter graph ...
Shelter up 0.2% MoM, up 3.0% YoY. This will continue to decrease due to soft rents.
February CPI Report: Beware the Ides of March
Due to the events in the Persian Gulf policymakers and the public can effectively ignore the February U.S. Consumer Price Index due to the energy shock that is cascading through the U.S. and global economy. #Econ #EconSky
Three asterisks to an otherwise decent CPI report:
1) This was before the economic fallout from the war in Iran
2) The very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after March.
3) Core PCE is running much firmer than CPI, and that wedge widened in Feb
📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.4% (flat)
✅+0.1pt vs. post-pandemic low
📊Core #CPI flat 2.5% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low
⚠️Wild upswing expected in March (oil) and April (post government shutdown)
We have the technology to deal with this problem
I don’t think the markets are rallying because they are sufficiently naive to think DJT is telling the truth, but small rally on the chance he’s TACO-ing again. Problem is, this time it’s not really in his control.
Mission Accomplished. In near-record time.
Can remove BofA analysts from my list of reports to read. This was obvious the day after the election
NO NO NO YOU DON’T
GUYS LET ME PLEASE SPREAD THE GOSPEL OF FREE TAX USA
federal is free, state is $16, handles even my chaotic freelancer taxes just fine, same step-by-step “designed for normies” kind of interface as TurboTax but NOT EVIL
tell everyone you know
www.freetaxusa.com
I regret to inform you that if tariffs were any guide equities need to go -20% soon to avoid more war, more damage to oil and gas infra and a more durable supply shock. The harder and faster we go down the faster the TACO and the sooner we go back up.
16 gallon hybrid sedan here
Imagine getting drafted to fight for Israel and a bunch of pedophiles.
Go America! 🇺🇸🫡
It’s fun having an 18 yr old son right now
While cash feels like a warm blanket these days, history reveals that staying invested pays off over time... going out a year+ JPMAM
History is a flat circle or something
Good morning. My thoughts on the economy after seven days of war. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-u-s-econ...
The Civil Wars do a good version of it too. As well as Disarm by the Smashing Pumpkins
IMF working paper: "Tenures of governors with politically motivated appointments are associated with higher and more volatile inflation, realized and expected." www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Wonder how much is related to the Warner Bros purchase supposed to be helping financially back
140+ June 2008 too
Suddenly witnessed a lot less Hummers and more Prius' on the road in my area at that time
