Dani Sandu

I love this, I have something similar in my syllabi.

Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)

💡 How does moving to opportunity reshape political behavior?

🗞️ In our new BJPolS paper, @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that residential relocations that increase access to opportunity foster political integration and shift political preferences to the left.

👉 tinyurl.com/46utjj65

without necessarily increasing intra-party hostility. But that happened mostly because there was a consensus to "reduce the temperature". This consensus is largely absent today, especially because MAGA elites seem to present the CK assassination as mainly the fault of their left-wing opponents. 3/x

Incredible parallels in this Berinsky &
@gabelenz.bsky.social paper. Politicians didn't stand up to Joe McCarthy in large part because they incorrectly inferred McCarthy/ism was extremely popular. Not standing up to McCarthy was a kind of 1950s Popularism

gated academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

Great job, very nice and insightful paper.

We might remember Mario Draghi in the future like we now remember Keynes and Friedman.

Congrats, Sam

Shibboleth.

Uhmmm, is it too on the nose to reference The Empire Strikes Back right now?

There have been a number of recent articles on statistical power in quantitative political science. This is something that I think deserves more attention and discussion. A short thread of the articles I have read. 🧵

Fascinating paper. And wonderful because it also helps us understand real-world problems and solutions.

Well deserved, V, congrats 🎉👏

Finally, the paper most Eastern Europeans have known should be written has been written.

EPSA (EPSS) is done. We have this fascinating paper of ours ready, even though we did not present. #Streber

If you still want some more #polsci stuff, a crazy three-wave field experiment reporting tons of nulls on protest effects, please check it out:

If I were on the market for a PhD, I would probably apply here. Ruth is an amazing scholar and mentor.

Many other things can be said, but overall Ro is facing an uphill battle. Reeling from a 9% deficit, markets punishing the possible PRR win, the country faces tough economic choices. Possible bad austerity. Nicușor Dan has a great coalition and a record number of votes though. He may win again end/x

Another special mention goes to Romanian Hungarians, who voted 90% for Dan both in Romania and Hungary, showing again the liberalizing influence of integrated ethnic minorities (see Rovny). Together, Hungarian and Moldovan support make up about 60% of the 800.000 votes Dan won by. 8/x

Diaspora votes exploded in the 2nd round, going from ~1 million to 1.7 million, with a huge anti-PRR mobilization. In Moldova alone turnout doubled, with about 6% of adults voting in Ro elections, 90% for Dan. More Moldovans voted for Dan abroad, making the final Diaspora score 55-45 for Simion 7/x

Since Romania only has about 20% of population of tertiary educated, this wouldn't have been enough for a GAL win without the unexpected mobilization of voters over 65 years old, who also voted 62% for Dan, most likely as a rejection of authoritarianism they had lived through during communism 6/x

The final result was that although Simion had unexpectedly almost received gender parity in the 1st round, women voted 60% against him in the second. Similarly, 75% of tertiary educated voted against him. Under 35 year olds also voted 62% against him, confirming their pro-EU stance 5/x

There are many things to say about Simion's campaign errors. He joined one 3 hour debate against Dan, which he lost, then refused all pther debates. He insulted France and other allies, touting MAGA interests above EU interests & his party took a late strong position against HPV vaccines in Ro 4/x

Many other things can be said, but overall Ro is facing an uphill battle. Reeling from a 9% deficit, markets punishing the possible PRR win, the country faces tough economic choices. Possible austerity. Nicușor Dan has a great coalition and a record number of votes, though. He may win yet end/x

Another special mention goes to Romanian Hungarians, who voted 90% for Dan both in Romania and Hungary, showing again the liberalizing influence of integrated ethnic minorities (see Rovny). Together, Hungarian and Moldovan support make up about 60% of the 800.000 votes Dan won by 8/x

Diaspora votes exploded in the 2nd round, going from ~1 million to 1.7 million, with a huge anti-PRR mobilization. In Moldova alone turnout doubled, with about 6% of adults voting in Ro elections, 90% for Dan. More Moldovans voted for Dan abroad, making the final Diaspora score 55-45 for Simion 7/x

Since Romania only has about 20% of population of tertiary educated, this wouldn't have been enough for a GAL win without the unexpected mobilization of voters over 65 years old, who also voted 62% for Dan, most likely as a rejection of authoritarianism they had lived through during communism 6/x

The final result was that although Simion had unexpectedly almost received gender parity in the 1st round, women voted 60% against him in the second. Similarly, 75% of tertiary educated voted against him. Under 35 year olds also voted 62% against him, confirming their pro-EU stance 5/x

There are many things to say about Simion's campaign errors. He joined one 3 hour debate against Dan, which he lost, then refused all pther debates. He insulted France and other allies, touting MAGA interests above EU interests & his party took a late strong position against HPV vaccines in Ro 4/x

Apart from the strong showing in Romania, Simion won about 60% of the one million strong Diaspora vote, about 10% of total turnout. Two weeks later, Simion lost 54 to 46 overall and barely won 55 to 45 in the Diaspora vote. New voters broke 70%-30% to Dan and many 1st round voters switched sides 3/x

There was a lot of anger and disappointment after the First Round of the Presidential elections held in November 2024 was cancelled and then the far-right Calin Georgescu forbidden to run again. These negative feelings fueled the rise of George Simion, who won the (new) first round with 40% of votes