Thomas Aubrey

The outlook for reducing dependency on the Middle East for fertilizer will shift dramatically in the next few years as projects developed by UK listed firm Atome, financed by the IDB, come on line. idbinvest.org/en/news-medi...

My latest @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk blog: UK private sector productivity growth is finally in positive territory driven by Financial Services. The Insurance sector has huge potential to drive growth in new markets, but Manufacturing continues to decline. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/product...

🆕Blog: New data suggest UK labour productivity may finally be emerging from a long period of stagnation, helped by a pick-up in financial services.
@thomasaubreycca.bsky.social highlights how the insurance sector could drive further gains through cyber security & AI opportunities.
bit.ly/4rtb60d

Global oil benchmark Brent crude breaks above $90 a barrel amid Iran war, U.S. crude tops $89 The oil market is worried that Gulf countries will have to shut production if tankers are unable to pass the the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent going above $100 by the end of next week www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us-war-oil-prices-brent-wti-barrel-futures.html #stagflation

Lenders Brace for Private-Equity Loan Defaults The default risk of companies owned by private-equity firms is 2.5 times that of their public counterparts, according to data collected from banks, insurers and asset managers.

but a handful of PE firms have used excess leverage. My research covered by @wsj.com highlighted leveraged loans backed by PE firms were 2.5 times riskier than their public counterparts. www.wsj.com/articles/len...

Rejoice! Private equity is taking over America’s small businesses Its ghoulish reputation is ill-deserved

Thoughtful @economist.com piece on PE although the article could have been clearer that the industry is not monolithic. www.economist.com/business/2026/02/23/rejoice-private-equity-is-taking-over-americas-small-businesses PE can be very supportive in helping firms scale through multiple acquisitions

China prepares landmark law curtailing minority language rights Bill to ‘promote ethnic unity’ by mandating Mandarin use would hasten decline of other cultures, critics say

"China is set to enact a landmark law requiring ethnic minorities to use Mandarin Chinese as their main language of instruction, overturning decades-old policies that date back to the era of Mao Zedong."
www.ft.com/content/94be...

Chart of the Day: Losses Mount in China’s Solar Price War Country’s leading manufacturers may have racked up more than $7.3 billion in combined losses for 2025, according to incomplete company data

1/3
Caixin: "China’s leading solar manufacturers may have racked up losses exceeding a combined 50 billion yuan in 2025. They have been mired in a brutal price war since 2023 which had wiped out profits up and down the supply chain as of mid-2024."
www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-27/c...

Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos explores asset sales as chemical sector struggles continue Group searches for ways to raise cash, cut costs and reduce its leverage

"Europe’s chemicals producers are struggling with a deluge of cut-price imports from China" www.ft.com/content/d1e7... Let's be clear these products are being dumped into the European market. Around half of China's chemicals firms are not making money despite massive subsidies.

Morningstar DBRS flags worsening private credit quality as downgrades increase Quality in private credit has continued to worsen this year, according to rating agency Morningstar DBRS, as the proportion of downgrades reached a new high in February.

About those private credit bets... The number of downgrades was 3.3 times the upgrades this month, up from 2.4 times a year ago. www.reuters.com/business/finance/morningstar-dbrs-flags-worsening-private-credit-quality-downgrades-increase-2026-02-23/

Gilt investors warn about ‘ruse’ to fund higher UK defence spending Bending UK’s fiscal rules would risk bond market backlash and self-defeating rise in borrowing costs

Oh dear "Among the options officials have discussed is a proposal to allow additional borrowing for defence outside the UK’s self-imposed borrowing limits." www.ft.com/content/7b75... And yet officials ignore ESA 2010 enabling the UK to self-fund its infrastructure. You couldn't make it up...

I'm running The Royal Parks Half Marathon 2026 Help Duncan Robinson raise money to support Alzheimer's Research UK

Hello, running a half marathon at the end of the year for Alzheimer’s Research UK. Any and all donations gratefully received www.justgiving.com/page/duncan-...

Keynes and Meade had much more of an impact on the post war economy than Ropke et al. See Susan Howson's work.

Only because Cyber Security partly sits under the MoD and hence can support demand for UK firms' products & services!

Demand for Cyber products is rising fast globally. UK firms have the potential to scale and become market leaders. The report will be out in the summer so we'll know what the potential GVA & jobs growth is (hence contribution to productivity) £££ spend will be much smaller compared to hardware...

Not just Barrow and Preston. The Cheltenham to Bristol arc for cyber security is the fastest growing part of defence at the moment (& fastest growing defence exports). CSEP is working with the sector on a growth plan at the moment. Also big opportunity for the Chemicals supply chain.

Missing from the UK Industrial Strategy: the customers - Bennett School of Public Policy As private sector productivity continues to stagnate, the UK government’s industrial strategy has the potential to help drive growth in key high value-added sectors. However, the lack of focus on cust...

The Defence Industrial Strategy now recognises the role of the MoD's buying power to support economic growth while ensuring procurement is optimised to meet the needs of the Armed Forces PLUS the export market. Quite a big shift. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/missing...

Are liberal values a luxury the West cannot afford? Yes, China has impressive high-speed trains. That is no reason for the West to adopt iron-fisted rule

Excellent piece from @dsorennie.bsky.social www.economist.com/international/2026/02/10/are-liberal-values-a-luxury-the-west-cannot-afford

Profiting from Monetary Policy -- Lessons Learned as an Asset Allocator | Lipper Alpha Insight | LSEG Ever since I read Hayek’s “Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle” as an LSE undergraduate, I have been obsessed about the idea of measuring the credit

is why it is still possible to profit from monetary policy lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2025/08/profiting-from-monetary-policy-lessons-learned-as-an-asset-allocator/ More accurately - nominal rates should be raised to maintain a monetary equilibrium as Myrdal noted.

The real Greenspan lesson for Warsh on inflation Those calling for the Fed to cut rates should look again at the relationship between prices and productivity growth

Good piece from @jasonfurman.bsky.social "Sustained faster productivity growth does raise the economy’s neutral real interest rate. To prevent inflation, central banks must therefore maintain higher nominal rates." www.ft.com/content/70dc... This mechanism is central to credit cycle investing which

LSE European Institute Events 2.30pm Wednesday 11 February | Registration Required | Free hybrid public event at the LSE

Last minute post (forgot sorry)!

For those in the neighbourhood, this should be a fun discussion.

www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...

Middle powers are rising – here’s how they can shape global governance | United States Politics and Policy Middle powers can work together to reshape global governance

Can middle powers work together to reshape global governance? In a post on the @sjrickard.bsky.social @lsegovernment.bsky.social finds that they already have.

She finds that coalitions of middle powers – and not the largest countries – made the largest contributions @lseusablog.bsky.social.

Top bosses depart Canadian pension fund after Thames Water fiasco Senior directors leave after losses on UK utility and souring of another European investment

www.ft.com/content/bf42... How long will it be for all other shareholders to write down their stakes down to zero?

Important thread on imp story 👇

If the UK wants infrastructure driven growth. The HMT strategy of badly managed central gov subsidy when there is no money is not going to work...

Strong DevCo project based delivery via non gilt bond financing is the only plausible option on the table.

Bennett School Affiliated Researcher @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social argues the UK’s centralised infrastructure funding model is holding back growth.
In a series of Bennett blogs, he recommends alternative approaches to finance infrastructure & housing projects more cost-effectively.
bit.ly/4rdKwsO

Well it would be nice if the UK stopped being an international public finance accounting pariah.😉 bsky.app/profile/thom...

Thanks to @henrytapper.bsky.social for putting this blog out referencing the work Con Keating and I have published on the need to change the way we fund and finance infrastructure.

Yes, they are referring to the fiscal rule which is grounded in net debt. And yes the UK deviates from international accounting standards in how it treats non-financial corporation debt paid back by market agents.

classify what is and is not in net debt. So the Housing Association issue was more related to the government trying to arbitrage its own rules which deviate from international norms. What actually matters from a risk perspective is not ownership but how the debt is paid back (market agents vs tax)

To be fair to ONS they are rightly following ESA 2010 which is important. They first need to decide whether the unit with debt liabilities is a market or a non-market producer. They then determine whether the entity is a public corporation or not. The issue remains with HMT in how they decide to