Mike Donnelly

“Stares in Afghanistan”

100% best example is the Gfk consumer survey in Germany. The nord stream disaster is still priced into the survey. So sentiment is now lower then the worst of covid

Inflation in PPI: services hot goods not
@usbls.bsky.social
imo: energy down, prices constant (aka cost down, sticky prices), & USD$ fell & sellers raised prices to offset in advance & uncertainity

I'm encouraged he is willing to publically agree with the 2H 2025 CPI data

The US effective tariff rate declined in November and December. Noise? Demand Destruction? Supply Chain re-routes? One on One Deals?

seeing AI-related imports as a category. (India example: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...)
is there an agreed definition or are you using ICT ?

Per @ianbremmer.com

I like to think of it as post hoc rationalization for the continued build out

@bencasselman.bsky.social
lol, tell me you don't drink coffee without telling me you don't drink coffee.
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

"Someone, maybe your parents, for their retirement have bought 5, 10, 12 homes" - Scott Bessent

C'mon Derek, have your parents give you one

this would be the very same Ven. oil that is replacing the 2MBpD Russian oil to India ?

ala Oprah "you don't get a credit card and you don't get a credit card"

East Wing doesn't get rebuilt for at least 10 years. Bet. Kennedy center gets torn down and similiar timeline

FFS would the Fed just absorb this agency already

I expect consensus to move much higher in the next three weeks (Feb 20, huge delay from Jan 29, due to shutdown)

I think noise, not signal. IMHO importers slammed on the brakes for 2 weeks as the S.C. dithered. Hoping to bring goods into the US after the ruling tariff free. More recent daily imports back to ~normal levels

FFS Shaperio is too short to run

36% of Alaskans said they want to leave the US. I’m sure the admin would be cool if Canada supported this idea.
/s

Jan imports look like they are in free fall. We get big revisions to this number this week

are we allowed to curse on this website. FFFFFFFFFFFFFF

Any other politician would’ve lost their base trying to sell austerity.
Convincing voters to accept “2 barbies, not 30” might be the most impressive political feat of all time.

Don't be so confident the tariffs aren't showing up in Goods prices.
Inflation in Goods was flat for 2.5 years before "liberation day"
#CPI #inflation

hard to read too much into the Dec data, survey was taken at a strange point in the month, the prior 2 months have to be averaged out. etc. Overall not bad. We need Oct, Nov and Dec PCE data !

I still think they do handwaive and only rule for future tariffs

ooof, just ran the numbers after your tweet.

Job creation averaged 122k for the first four months of the year and averaged 11k for the last eight months of the year.

and based on jobs steadily being revised lower, December likely gets a bit of a haircut.

2022–24: Tight labor markets pulled workers out of gigs & second jobs (CPS) as firms hired aggressively (CES). (Green line>Blue)
2025: Corporate hiring cools → growth reappears in temp, gig & multi-job work (CPS). (Blue line narrows gap)
#numbersday
#jobs

2025: First jobs estimate to the current number. Jobs have steadily been revised lower all year.

Nontrivial chance December 50k is revised to a negative number.

This is why S.C. Will be all hand wavey and allow the prior tariffs to stand. May overrule future tariffs

Europe can do seasonal adjustments

While I was out: 3Q US GDP data was very strong
(eyeroll) it's ~always very strong. US has seasonal issues with GDP data that deflate 1Q and inflate 3Q