visible hands (daniel)

Complaints are shown in the month received. Usually, it would take some time to resolve a complaint, so the effect would be backdated by these charts mechanically.

While unhelpful, I think it would be funny to describe culinary process obsessed fancy restaurants (think foams and brittles) as ultraprocessed

Reminds me of this classic

Just read the abstract 🫠 via Alexander Magazinov. I don't believe he is on Bluesky.

P(I say "that's not a cheesesteak" | ordering a cheesesteak in the mitten state) = 1

Tbqh I'm flabbergasted by what passes as a cheesesteak in Michigan

I tried showing my wife a hard pips solve the other week. I realized as I was doing it that it is always obvious what goes where after the fact.

This is a context where "when" and "how much" clearly matter given the huge ethical considerations you're weighing against

I'm probably never going to do work on prediction markets, so here's some little idea for free: Someone should use Kalshi insider trading cases (I assume there will be more) to document whether insider trading by a small few people actually moves a prediction market to yield timely information

NBA celebrity game has a real YMCA try hard guy problem

New blog: The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure

Picture: Countries receiving more or less annual humanitarian support than predicted from number of people food insecure ($bn) 2017-2025.

Thread...

Shouldn't the pats have gone for two there

AI Chatbot That Only Responds ‘Huh’ Valued At $200 Billion

AI Chatbot That Only Responds ‘Huh’ Valued At $200 Billion https://theonion.com/ai-chatbot-that-only-responds-huh-valued-at-200-billion/

If Bilbo had Chat GPT

Sent some emails, I deserve a little treat (opens overleaf to work on an actual paper)

The cfb playoff is good, actually

I genuinely dismissed that it could be on Parsons' blocker so I thought it was on Gary's blocker

so I guess what they're saying is that it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing *ducks*

good idea

Is there a rebranded "battle of the sexes" game theory example that has teaching materials associated with it? #econsky

@dearmodern.bsky.social Can I get a feng shui assessment of the coat bath?

Making Bolognese

just started having recency bias and i love it. easily the best bias

I guess if I was going to, e.g., use an agent, I would be worried that the more time savings that was promised, the more the work performed would depart from the prompt I made---obviously work needs to be checked, but it seems to me to be a problem that issues get worse as verification gets harder

My strategy has been to increase the number of times I repeat the prompt for smaller batches, but I have learned that GPT is not great at counting slides

Nature suggests you use their "Manuscript Adviser" bot to get advice before submitting

I uploaded the classic Watson & Crick paper about DNA structure, and the Adviser had this to say about one of the greatest paper endings of the century:

Kind of like how it's very hard for robots to put on glasses, Chat GPT really cannot get out of its own way if you ask it to transcribe (in this case moving power point to beamer). As it gets further from the prompt, this decays to where its not really following instructions after ~30 slides

Ended up in the closest Buffalo wild wings to Michigan State to watch the Packers. They hate hate JJ McCarthy here

If you run a cross-country growth regression with aid dollars as an independent variable and get a negative coefficient is it that:
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth

It's been a long time but Moyo's argument didn't do much for me when I read dead aid. In that genre, I'd rather assign Easterly, who is much more transparent about the fact that our evidence around aid in the aggregate will be, by nature, contaminated by selection bias.