UnderSecT DiNanno: "China has used decoupling method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring to hide their activities from the world. China conducted one such yield producing nuclear tests on June 22 of 2020"
Good take- one way you can guess that the concept of "grand strategy" is somewhat flimsy is that the question of "how do we know if a grand strategy is good or not" tends to lead to rhetorical contortions that would make fun pasta shapes.
Axios reports a draft agreement has been reached in Abu Dhabi between Witkoff/Kushner and Russian officials on sticking to New START limits after treaty expiration. Still needs to be approved by Trump, but seems likely. Deus ex machina www.axios.com/2026/02/05/n...
This makes the case for a successor agreement stronger, as more transparency would be beneficial about these systems.
Good thread. I’d add that while the loss of transparency via inspections is significant, that has not been in effect for years at this point and would be less important anyway as new Russian systems are developed that fall outside the treaty limits.
The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence.
The overlooked space race: keeping satellites alive
U.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had.
I'm back up at Strategic Defense with a look at the extension of New START and the politics of linkage that will likely determine its fate. Check it out and let me know what you think! open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
No idea if this will mean actual testing of weapons or of old (or new) delivery systems, based on the qualifier of matching Russia/China. Likely they don't know yet (or perhaps don't know the difference). www.npr.org/2025/10/30/g...
The USG needs to improve public comms about cyber espionage - and refrain from conflating it with offensive cyber operations. Further, it should think through how OCOs might impact crisis stability with China - particularly as China might seek to reveal such capabilities as tensions mount. /FIN
One complicating factor in all this is that these hacks are playing out in public, which raises the bar for US government responses. It's difficult to clearly tell the public what the difference between "Salt" and "Volt" are.
As @mikepoznanski.bsky.social and Erica Lonergan argued in War on the Rocks - cyber espionage and attacks on critical infrastructure are fundamentally different and require different responses. warontherocks.com/2025/02/a-ta...
But the United States has (allegedly) conducted similar compromises of telecoms for intelligence purposes. See for instance: www.reuters.com/article/tech...
Like many US policymakers, Neuberger conflates China's Salt Typhoon (telecom espionage) with Volt Typhoon (pre-positioning in critical infrastructure). She suggests that compromises of telecoms could have been used to disrupt civilian and mil comms during a conflict.
Fmr DNSA Anne Neuberger argues that, in response to the Chinese cyber threat, the US needs to establish a "new cyber-deterrence policy". This side-steps an important question: what should be the limits of adversary cyber espionage against the US?
Article: www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...
It’s night in Iran now - once the sun rises and if weather is clear, satellite imagery may give clues about the impact but info will be limited. Follow-on strikes could be based on subsequent intel. Likely next desired target would be fissile material through Iran but that is a difficult quarry.
Happy #caturday !
Following a loud public outcry about job cuts at the National Parks Service — and a relentless media campaign from outdoors enthusiasts across the country — it looks like the Trump administration has blinked.
via @jackdolan.bsky.social
I lost my job. USDA Forest Service. My probation was up next week. I did everything right. I took a GS-7 role with a master’s degree just to get my foot in the door. I spent years doing seasonal fieldwork for low pay, working in remote places, gaining experience, and building skills, just for a chance at a permanent position. I was about to be a GS-9. I wrote NEPA reports. I conducted field surveys. I worked fire support. I dedicated myself to this work because I believed in it. Public lands don’t manage themselves. The wildlife, watersheds, and forests we protect don’t just stay protected without people on the ground making it happen. My coworkers and I took on that responsibility, often in places most people never think about but that matter more than they know. And now? Just like that, I’m out. Edit: I’ve consistently supported progressive policies and have voted Democrat in every national and local election since I was 18. I do appreciate folks asking, I have some coworker having a serious 'leopards ate my face' moment right now.
This comment on r/fednews really stood out to me. Trump and Musk want people to think they're firing do-nothing "bureaucrats," but they're really getting rid of people dedicated to serving this country and keeping it operational. I hope these stories get told.
ABC: “.. Multiple current and former employees described the situation as ‘a national security crisis.’”
@abcnewsgo.bsky.social
abcnews.go.com/Politics/liv...
My new post for Strategy Defense looks at how psychology and strategy interact in debates on nuclear weapons, specifically whether there has been a "nuclear revolution". Plus I cover some ongoing developments with missile defense - check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Check out the post to see more and consider subscribing if you're interested in the topic: strategicdefense.substack.com
For instance, fielding interceptors in space raises new escalation risks - and means that the US would still need to rely on deterrence to protect its missile defenses!
In my view, the EO adopts a strategy of "throw everything at the missile and hope something sticks" without considering some of the strategic trade-offs in these forms of missile defense.
The second part to my post covering Trump's missile defense plans is now out, including discussion of the new EO: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
Announcement! I've started a blog - Strategic Defense - where I'm writing about issues involving strategic forces, technology, and international relations. My first post is live and looks at Trump's call for the US to have its own "Iron Dome".
Check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...
