Defeated 🥹
09.03.2026 22:55
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Defeated 🥹
12 million Africans were forced onto slave ships. 10 million survived.
“The negro is inferior to the white man…slavery…is his natural and normal condition” — Alexander H. Stephens
“The more the left screams about my lack of empathy, the more it proves I’m doing the right thing.” — Stephen Miller
On dehumanization and empathy, a thread🧵
Between 1846 and 1873, California’s Native population fell from 150,000 to fewer than 30,000.
“The Indians are a race of barbarians incapable of civilization.” — Andrew Jackson
“Empathy is the fundamental weakness of Western civilization.” — Elon Musk
🔍 How does economic inequality impact beliefs in meritocracy?
Using comprehensive survey data from 39 advanced capitalist democracies over more than three decades, Markus Gangl & I examine how rising economic inequality has been shaping citizens' belief in meritocracy.
🔗 doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwag016
Citizens tend to lose faith in meritocracy as inequality rises within their country over time.
#SocialPsyc
"Just Plot the Data"
Which of the two datasets is normally distributed?
Plotting the data might seem like the most assumption-free way to examine its properties.
But is that really the case?
1/
#StatSky #Biostatistics #EconSky #EpiSky
Mcelreath ?
In somebody else's words:
This is what I wrote on the topic in 2022:
📝 van Rooij, I. (2022) Against automated plagiarism. doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
2/🧵
meta-meta-metascience study meta-analyzing comparisons between multiverse analyses on full specifications retrieved from many analyst datasets to many-analyst results when
Linking to my work
I am willing to bet if I start doing this in #India roads (potholes are basically synonymous with monsoons), I will be jailed for obscenity or somehow be 'sized up' by the 'system'.. but what if I am anonymous enough...
#statstab #501 Prediction intervals for GLMs
Thoughts: Sometimes the prediction of the next dat point can be [0,1]. Not very useful.
#prediction #uncertainty #predictionintervals #glm #binomial #probability
fromthebottomoftheheap.net/2017/05/01/g...
Somebody on reddit found this in a gardening shop and asked what it was. So my question is not on computational geometry nerds but rather botanists: what do you use it for 🤓
Coooool, gotta print it 😋
The new conformal prediction book now seems to be final after a bunch of updates: arxiv.org/abs/2411.118...
"Reading old books" how dumb do you think we are Marc
minimalist procedural art piece with about 20 or so small ribbon shapes in a warm red/yellow palette arranged in geometric pattern that slightly resembles a twinkling star, against a black background. surround it are thousands of very tiny ribbon shapes like distant stars
starlight in #rstats
I am increasingly getting comfortable with the idea that estimation and uncertainty quantification can be treated in quite different ways, which would once have been quite strange to me.
There is something quite clean about distilling a large range of statistical principles down to
"Well if that _were_ the case, then *this* would really be quite unlikely."
This article is my take on AI.
We cannot actually have rational debates about technology, because our ability to reason is compromised by the colonial fantasy world we live in where the material consequences of our actions don't exist where we don't see them.
It's fascinating to get a couple drive-by comments from tech guys telling me that better learning would happen from having AI passively summarize "insights" from the work it just completed; EXACTLY the learning misconception my Skill was designed to challenge 😂
Everyone is trying to argue this but this creator is a Christian who has said that movies shouldn't have "an agenda" and I think people need to think a little bit harder about the internal consistency of religious belief systems. There is no conflict here
Religious people define childhood in this country and they know it. They define what is safe (and no responsibility that it is not safe for queer children). They define what good childhood emotions are and what bad childhood emotions are. No conflict here because they're in charge of the definition.
ah the 'I don't like X >> it's because X is a and b >> a and b makes X morally wrong >> no one should like or do X >> those who do X are both stupid and evil' pipeline
most confusing part is that it genuinely do be like that sometimes. not always though. not even most of the time.
But you'll feel a lot more alone if your default is "I'm the only one who Truly Understands The Mess" and a lot less alone if your default is "my fellow humans must also be in versions of The Mess" and guess what
The default is a learned skill.
Look, it's a mess out there and you can react to that mess by deciding everyone else is a moron or you could react to it by deciding most people are trying to get by with a different context than yours and start working the problem. Those are your choices pretty much, can't choose "no mess"
The most fascinating applications of statistics are the ones where you have to creatively work around pragmatic constraints.
E.g. quasi experimental methods.
We noticed this in our new global social media RCT study: One of the biggest effects we saw in our initial data was that taking a break from social media significantly improved sleep quality.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
A new paper in JAME revealed a growing sleep deficit among high school students, which impacts cognitive ability and depressive symptoms.
There is a need for systemic change, such as "later school start times or reductions in bedtime digital media"