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12.09.2025 08:14
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👇🔗 Read today's full report: www.caixabankresearch.com/es/publicaci...
Tariff-exposed products saw upward price pressures. Market odds for Fed cuts remained strongly anchored (100% probability of a September cut and a total of 150bp in cuts by early 2027).⤵️
U.S. headline CPI inflation accelerated to 0.4% mom and 2.9% yoy in August (0.2% mom and 2.7% in July) while core inflation remained unchanged at 0.3% mom and 3.1% yoy. ⤵️
Investors made a hawkish reading of the meeting and market odds of a 25bp rate cut in 2026 declined by ca. 10pp (see our own take here). ⤵️
The ECB left rates unchanged, as widely expected, and gave no forward guidance as it reiterated that it will not precommit to any particular rate path and will instead stick to a "meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent" approach. ⤵️
In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down. ⤵️
🔵📈 #FinancialMarketsDailyReport Sep 12 |
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. ⤵️
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Updated data show that the level of nonfarm employment was 911,000 (-0.6%) lower in March 2025 than previously estimated (implying an average monthly change in employment of +71,000 instead of +147,000). ⤵️
On the data front, a statistical revision showed that U.S. employment growth was less robust in the period from April 2024 to March 2025. ⤵️
After markets had closed, reports emerged that President Macron named Sebastien Lecornu (from Macron's Renaissance, and defense minister uninterrupted since 2022) France's new prime minister.⤵️
The euro reversed Monday's gains and fluctuated close to $1.17 while commodity prices were mixed. French 10-year sovereign yields jumped due to a change in the Bloomberg benchmark to a bond maturing in November 2035 from one maturing in May 2035. ⤵️
🔵📈 #FinancialMarketsDailyReport Sep 10 | Investors seemingly recovered some appetite for risk in yesterday's session. Stock markets rose moderately across advanced economies and sovereign yields increased both in the US and Europe. ⤵️
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In oil markets, the price of the barrel of Brent rose as traders weighed the OPEC+'s weekend announcement to raise production. In gas markets, Europe's TTF benchmark increased amid renewed Russian strikes on Ukraine and discussions over further sanctions against Russia. ⤵️
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose and the yen closed little changed as investors digested the resignation of PM Ishiba. ⤵️
French PM François Bayrou lost a confidence motion in parliament (364-194). With investors expecting President Macron to accept Bayrou's resignation and name a new premier, euro area sovereign spreads declined across France and peripheral economies. ⤵️
🔵📈 Global stocks rebounded and sovereign yields continued to decline as investors cemented their expectations for rate cuts ahead of the Fed's next week meeting. The USD weakened moderately across other major currencies and gold prices continued to surge. ⤵️
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Also on Friday, S&P will review Spain's rating (A, stable outlook) and Fitch will review Portugal's (A-, positive outlook) and France's (AA-, negative outlook). ⤵️
This week the focus will be on the French government's confidence vote (today), the ECB meeting (Thursday), and CPI August figures (U.S.' on Thursday and final figures in several European economies on Friday). ⤵️
Thus, they will start unwinding the 1.65mn bpd cut launched in April 2023 (after having fully unwound the 2.2mn November 2023 cut between April and September 2025). ⤵️
Brent oil prices declined towards $65 ahead of the weekend's OPEC+ meeting. On Sunday, OPEC+ announced that required production will increase by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October. ⤵️
Advanced-economy stock markets declined and sovereign yields dropped amid stronger market expectations over Fed cuts. The euro strengthened above $1.17 and gold rose. ⤵️
🔵📈 #FinancialMarketsDailyReport Sep. 8 |
Risk-off sentiment drove markets after a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market report (nonfarm payrolls +22k in August, and June-July revised down to a cumulative +66k [prior: +87k]). ⤵️
👇🔗 Lee la valoración completa sobre lo que esperamos de la próxima reunión del BCE: www.caixabankresearch.com/es/publicaci...
La resiliencia de la actividad, unos datos de inflación sostenidamente en el objetivo y la reducción (que no eliminación) de la incertidumbre tras los acuerdos comerciales del verano han reducido la presión para que el BCE siga recortando tipos a corto plazo. ⤵️
Los mercados financieros cotizan que no haya cambios con un 99% de probabilidad y los últimos mensajes del BCE sugieren que el banco central ve la política monetaria en una buena posición y tiene poca predisposición para modificarla a corto plazo. ⤵️
🔵🏦 #Observatorio #BCE | Todo sugiere que en su reunión del próximo 11 de septiembre el BCE mantendrá los tipos en los niveles actuales (depo en el 2,00%). ⤵️