You can read the full, in-depth analysis here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
And make sure to subscribe to DDHQ's Substack to get our election newsletter in your inbox every Monday morning!
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
Most of the other 13 seats should be somewhat more favorable to Republicans, though at least 4 are currently toss-ups. Somewhat more highly educated and suburban seats like IA-03 & PA-10 are top Dem targets.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
Another wrinkle: Virginia Republicans are already having to defend VA-01 & VA-02 under the current congressional lines. But if VA's April redistricting referendum passes & it's upheld by the courts, Rob Wittman & Jen Kiggans could be done for.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
Meanwhile, the most well-educated swing seat in the country is NJ-07, where 56% of the population has at least a bachelor’s degree.
GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. won by more than Trump carried the seat in 2024, but he's a top Dem target.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
Of those Harris-won seats, Brian Fitzpatrick's PA-01 might be the toughest for Dems to flip.
Fitzpatrick has an impressive electoral track record: Despite repping a pretty 50-50 district for years, only once has he won by <8 points.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
But Democrats must win more seats on Trump turf in 2026 than they did in 2018.
2018: 22 of Dems' 40-seat gain came from Clinton-won seats
2026: Pending VA redistricting, Dems have 9-13 Harris seats to target. And GOP has its own redistricting gains.
5 of the GOP seats are Harris-won districts. Democrats are favored or probably favored in 3 of them: the newly-drawn CA-06 & CA-48, and the open NE-02. After that, it gets more complicated.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
These seats are part of a larger group of 46 seats (with 20 Dem-held seats) that will likely determine the majority.
Some seats remain more in limbo because of redistricting, while a blue wave could bring a few peripheral GOP seats into play.
Read more:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
In this week's DDHQ newsletter: The 26 Republican-held seats that will be key to the 2026 House majority.
We're still ~8 months out from the election, but these seats are already clearly the Democrats' best targets if they want to win back the House.
To receive more of DDHQ's electoral analysis and coverage like this, please subscribe to our Substack!
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On DDHQ's podcast, Sean Trende explained race & redistricting rules, including tensions between interpretations of the Voting Rights Act & the 14th Amendment.
Now SCOTUS seems likely to dismantle the VRA, which could open up new redistricting conflicts.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...
Sign up for DDHQ Votes to explore past election results, monitor prediction market data, and watch live returns on Election Nights in 2026!
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
Wesley Hunt's best not-tiny county was Chambers County (20.5%) in the Houston 'burbs.
His best larger county was right next door in Harris (19.8%), home to Houston and much of his current congressional district.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465
Ken Paxton's best not-tiny county was still-small Sabine County (56.7%) in East Texas.
His best larger county was Montgomery (54.6%) in the Houston suburbs — not coincidentally the location of a big part of the defeated Dan Crenshaw's TX-02 district.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465
In the GOP primary, John Cornyn's best county of any size was Travis County (54.3%). Although it will be solidly blue in November, Travis did cast almost 56k votes in the GOP primary (8th-most of any county).
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242465
Jasmine Crockett's strongest county of note was Jefferson (79.0%) in the state's southeast corner.
This reflected the east-west split in the Democratic primary, with Crockett stronger east of the Dallas/Houston metros & Talarico stronger to the west.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466
in the Democratic primary, James Talarico's best county where he won >1,000 votes was Gillespie (76.6%), a bit west of Austin.
Next-best was unsurprisingly Travis County (75.6%), home to Austin and Talarico's home base.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466
Using DDHQ's new Votes election data portal, here's a look at the #TXSen primary results and the best counties for the major contenders (in counties where a candidate got at least 1,000 votes)
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
And make sure to subscribe to receive all of DDHQ's election analysis and content in your inbox, including our Monday newsletter and polling memo.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
The future Electoral College could hinge mostly on the outcomes in Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina — right now, that seems like good news for the GOP, although things could surely change between now and 2032.
Watch/listen to the podcast here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...
This week's DDHQ podcast: We talked about the consequences of the Voting Rights Act's anticipated demise. We also dug into 2030 census projections.
Post-VRA redistricting could run into incumbents' preferences and complicate future redraws.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/voting-rig...
Check out that race here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/4188
You can see historical results and watch live on election nights using Votes, Decision Desk HQ's new election data platform!
Another example: Kristi Noem's own primary for SD governor in 2022.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/10356
Kristi Noem is considering a primary challenge to Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in South Dakota. That'd be an exit ramp after being forced out of the Cabinet.
In 2020, Rounds won his primary 75%-25% vs a candidate running to his right. But Noem would be a tougher opponent.
DDHQ's new Votes platform for election data has plenty of interesting election results, historical and live on Election Night, that you can dive into. No matter the circumstances involved!
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
Keith Self (R) won the runoff unopposed, then easily won the general election, and he remains the 3rd District's rep.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/21167
Were Tony Gonzales to abandon the runoff, he'd be the 2nd TX Republican to do so recently over a situation involving infidelity.
In 2022, Rep. Van Taylor won shy of 50% in his primary vs. Keith Self, but then quit before the runoff while admitting to an affair.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/6717
Texas Attorney General Democratic Primary
Decision Desk HQ projects Nathan Johnson and Joe Jaworski to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the Texas Attorney General race.
#DecisionMade: 1:15 pm ET
Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243886
Decision Desk HQ projects Jace Yarbrough and Ryan Binkley to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary for Texas’s 32nd congressional district.
#DecisionMade: 9:53 am ET
Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242529
Decision Desk HQ projects Al Green and Christian Menefee to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for Texas’s 18th congressional district.
#DecisionMade: 9:34 am ET
Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242502
Decision Desk HQ projects Vicki Goodwin and Marcos Velez to advance to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the Texas Lt. Governor race.
#DecisionMade: 3:25 am ET
Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243884
