@mathieugotteland
PhD in History of international relations. Autistic. Posts on Somalia, Sudan, African geopolitics Research interests: Informal imperialism, Foreign concessions in China, WWI-era espionage, Indian, Vietnamese independentisms, Terrorism, Ethics of war
#US finally address #Sudan s Iranian ties… as it moves away from #Iran and stands in solidarity with Gulf countries
#Terrorism #War #SaudiArabia #MuslimBrotherhood
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Uncertain times ahead for #Somalia
#Terrorism #War #Africa
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The Horn of #Africa may be the next target, amid the escalating, near all-out (proxy) war between #US #Israel and #Iran
#Yemen #Djibouti #Somaliland #Somalia #Ethiopia
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Burhan condemns #Iran, sides with Gulf countries
#Sudan #Africa #SaudiArabia
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#SouthSudan relapses into #CivilWar: The context
#War #Africa
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#Somalia takes position in #Iraq #Kuwait maritime dispute
#SaudiArabia #Iran #Kenya
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#Africa remains a hotspot of #Iran #Israel proxy war and geopolitical rivalry
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Hemedti travels to #Uganda, #Sudan ’s FSR back on the diplomatic offensive
#SouthSudan
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#War is looming between #Ethiopia and #Eritrea.
Not because of inescapable circumstances.
Because of decisions taken by those in power.
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La situation est de plus en plus inconfortable pour le #Tchad depuis la frappe de drones des FSR sur Tiné en décembre.
#Soudan
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- It is very likely that after a no less than miraculous advance in the first months of #Somalia s “total war” against Al Shabaab, the continued degradation of the security situation in the country since 2023 has been the main factor preventing her from making the list.
- On paper, #Somalia fits aid-for-migration control and energy priorities. It reportedly requested to be a partner country under the Mattei plan. It nevertheless neither made the first (9) nor the second batch (5) of “focus countries”. Among former colonies, only #Ethiopia made the list.
- As was relatively natural, this was accompanied by a renewed interest in relations with #Somalia, notably on security and aid. Six helicopters have been delivered in 2023 & 2024. A health-focused “Towards Peace and Stability in Somalia” fund was established (2023).
- In comes the Mattei plan (2023), formalizing Italian interest in investment rather than aid. Italian foremost priorities are migration and energy.
- #Italy has long maintained close relations with her former colony #Somalia (until 1994 and again from 2007). She has also been a major supporter of #EU missions in Somalia including Atalanta, EUCAP and EUTM. In #Djibouti, an Italian MIADIT mission trains Djiboutian and Somali police since 2014.
- In the case of #Italy, “historic ties” were put forward however. Several African countries have been colonized by Italy, including Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya and #Somalia.
Those newcomers often insist on having no colonial history and/or not adopting a neocolonial approach.
- This is part of a recent scramble among #EU countries to take an (often purely economic) interest in the African continent, in the context of a waning French influence (notably Poland, Czechia, Hungary, or Spain).
Mattei plan won’t include #Somalia
- Italian PM Meloni held the 2nd #Italy #Africa summit in Addis Abeba and spoke at the opening ceremony of the #AU Assembly.
and an unprecedented show of support in difficult times ( #Ethiopia, #Somaliland, #Israel, #UAE, #terrorism, #piracy), since Operation Restore Hope and the Ethiopian intervention (2007) respectively. But it occurs in the defence of Turkish interests.
#Turkey #Somalia
- Yes, deploying such heavy material as F-16 jets and M48/M60 battle tanks to #Somalia is a major shift since the fall of the Barre regime,
#Turkey
- #Turkey has begun construction of a spaceport on the Somali coast, which loss to threats such as AS would be felt even more deeply, and commands the kind of heavy material deployment witnessed lately.
#Somalia #space
- To top it off, an agreement has been reached 2 years ago regarding the exploitation and patrolling of her EEZ, as well as equipping and training the Somali navy, until then a major blindspot in #Somalia ’s security and state-building.
#Turkey
She has been a major ally against Al Shabaab, including providing TB2 drones and attack helicopters, training her police and military (including the elite Gorgor). She holds banking, mining, #oil, #gas concessions.
#Turkey #Somalia
- #Turkey now operates the port and airport of Mogadishu, which also hosts her largest military base abroad.
#Somalia
The level of political, security, economic intertwining, for all the obvious and down-to-earth ulterior motives, hasn’t prevented a “common destiny” trope to take hold. One that has been linked elsewhere in #Africa to postcolonial contexts rather than an unwavering friendship.
#Somalia #Turkey
Turkish deployment of battle tanks to #Somalia signals more than emotional ties
- Under the presidency of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, ties with #Turkey grew to a point where she became Somalia’s closest non-Western ally, to the ire of the #UAE.
- Besides being a sign of an ever-growing diplomatic clout, #UNSC and #AUPSC seats will also be precious to #Somalia on dossiers such as #Somaliland and AUSSOM.
- It has just presided said #UNSC for the first time in January 2026.
- At the same #AU summit, #Somalia chaired the A3 ministerial meeting (African countries seating at the UNSC and holding an aligned position there, including #Liberia and the #DRC).