On the CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook (for March 19-23), 33.4% of the Lower 48 has a >90% chance of being in the warmest temperature tercile. The 33.4% number is the 5th largest on record for this product and the highest percentage in 9 years (since Feb 13, 2017 issuance).
I slowed down the lightning initiation video and it’s clearly an upward strike. These ~5 frames taken from a 240fps clip represent about 20 milliseconds in real time. All this with a handheld cameraphone 🤯
1-minute Visible and Infrared images from @noaa.gov #GOESEast (GOES-19) included time-matched plots of SPC Storm Reports, showing thunderstorms that produced tornadoes and hail as large as 4.00" in diameter across northern Illinois. #ILwx
An impressive view of the tornadic supercell that produced massive hail in Illinois earlier today.
A temperature map of the Midwest this afternoon. Readings range from 41 in Chicago to 77 in Peoria.
A map of the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook for Tuesday
A map of the Storm Prediction Center's tornado probabilities for Tuesday
That's quite the front over Illinois and Indiana this afternoon.
This boundary will serve as the focus for rotating storms into the evening hours.
A moderate (4/5) risk for severe weather is in place across the region, driven by the tornado threat.
IEMBot Image
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Convective Outlook (Max Risk: Moderate) at Mar 10, 16:28z Link
Satellite imagery captured the storm that produced a destructive tornado in southern Michigan this afternoon.
I’m often asked “did you see the storm over X - what’s going on?” I would then scramble to one of the many wx sites to make a sounding. What if there was a site that specialized in soundings?
Look no further…announcing the beta launch of illiniweather.web.illinois.edu/skewt-intera...
Feedback plz!
The new SPC outlooks with Conditional Intensity are now live.
We've updated our graphics on the Outdoor Activities dashboard to be a slightly simplified version of these updated graphics.
See the new legends that we will be using:
The National Hurricane Center has just completed and posted the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane #Melissa after the careful post-season reanalysis.
* Melissa's updated peak intensity is now tied with Hurricane Allen in 1980 as the strongest known hurricane ever in the Atlantic. *
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Here's the entire radar run of the February 22-23 2026 Blizzard, using @noaa.gov's MRMS dataset.
#snOMG @spann.bsky.social
Still satellite imagery of a nor'easter. This image contains the GeoColor product from the GOES-19 weather satellite from the morning of 2026-02-23.
A stunning satellite shot of a powerful nor'easter.
Moment of zen.
7 inches and counting in the foothills of the Smokies.
Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January
Good morning! Here were the latest Key Messages issued eqrly this morning. Increasing area of at least 50% chances for Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel & to some infrastructure) from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic & Carolinas.
[Monday, January 19 Analysis]
A major cross-country snow and ice storm is increasingly likely this weekend. Confidence is growing in a widespread swath of over 12" of snow & a significant ice storm.
I'll cover the big picture & forecast uncertainties in this thread:
Jan 19th: Signals are coming together for a potentially significant #WinterStorm, with #arctic airmass, for the latter part of the work week into the weekend. It is a bit early to forecast exact amounts, though appreciable #snow and/or #ice accumulations are a concern. #WinterWx
The thickness of #Arctic sea ice dropped to a new all-time record low this year around the North Pole (data from PIOMAS). More in my latest 'climate viz of the month' blog: zacklabe.com/climate-viz-... #OpenScience #SciComm #DataViz #OpenData
🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨
Thanks to @climatologist49.bsky.social for calculating the stats and generating the maps that tell the incredible story of how Christmas 2025 was - by far - the warmest Christmas on record. Some additional details and rather incredible factoids here: tinyurl.com/amvyycfc
Screenshot of afternoon forecast discussion from National Weather Service in the SF Bay Area. The text begins: "The biggest threat late Wednesday through Friday will be the potential for severe weather, including the risk of weak tornadoes and waterspouts. The SPC has issued a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms and a 2% chance of tornadoes/waterspouts along our entire coastline. The highest risk for a weak tornado/waterspouts will be from embedded thunderstorms within the main rain band as the cold front passes through our CWA. That being said, guidance shows the potential for isolated cells to develop in the wake of cold frontal passage which also display potential for severe thunderstorm development and rotation. This system looks even more favorable than the first system with much more instability (higher MUCAPE values over a much larger area) and continued strong low level shear between 30 to 45 knots. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms continues for the Big Sur coastline..
One thing that really stands out about this week's California storms is the highly unusual risk of severe thunderstorms, both overnight Tue Wed and then again late Wed into Thu. Multiple low-topped supercells may generate very strong wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. #CAwx
Heavy rainfall rates will "pose a significant threat of flash flooding, landslides, rock falls and mud slides," WPC wrote. "The greater than normal travel during the Christmas Holiday will likely expose a potentially larger number of people to these life threatening hazards."
Here's a zoomed in map
I can’t recall ever seeing a fog event footprint show up so clearly on a 30-day temperature anomaly map. Absolutely fascinating.
California’s Central Valley really sticks out amid widespread warmth across the West.
An infographic titled "Key Messages for Friday Dec 19 Fire Weather" from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, updated Dec 19, 2025, at 9:11 AM MST. It warns of "Extremely Critical Fire Weather Conditions for portions of the Colorado Front Range into far southeast Wyoming." Overview: A damaging windstorm today will contribute to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions. Wind gusts up to around 100 mph, temperatures near 70F, and relative humidity near 10% will yield high-end fire weather environment along/near the Front Range. Timing: Wind gusts of 40-70 mph and relative humidity of 15-30% are already occurring this morning. Critical and Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will continue through the evening with strong winds likely continuing overnight. Safety Actions: Use caution with any potential ignition sources. Stay aware and follow instructions from emergency officials.
A damaging windstorm today will contribute to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions. Wind gusts up to 100mph, temperatures near 70F, and relative humidity near 10% will yield high-end fire weather environment along/near the Front Range. Stay aware& follow instructions from emergency officials.
Snapshot of PDS Red Flag Warning from National Weather Service in Boulder, CO. The text begins: URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 508 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR IN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS, BETWEEN 5500 AND 9000 FEET, FOR BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES ON FRIDAY... Strong west winds, sustained 45-55 mph with gusts upwards of 85-105 mph, are expected in the foothills of Boulder and Jefferson Counties beginning early Friday morning. Relative humidity values are expected to drop into the low teens, possibly upper single digits. While Red Flag conditions, critical fire weather, are expected across a larger area in northern Colorado, the most extreme conditions are expected to be along Highway 93 from Jefferson County into Boulder County and along US-36 north of Boulder to the Larimer County line and westward. There will be a high potential for fast moving wildfires...
NWS in Boulder, CO has just issued a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) Red Flag Warning for extreme fire weather risk on Friday. Historically, PDS RFW issuances (including in California) have pinpointed days on which the most dangerous wildfires have occurred. #COwx
Where rivers have flooded in 2025, using data from USGS and @nws.noaa.gov
#StateOfFlood
Advancing the science of meteorology isn't liberal or conservative, it's common sense. Fight for your forecast--and the research that makes it possible.
Some thoughts I put together today on the administration's NCAR destruction announced today:
🔥Let's check in and see how much December temperatures have changed (trend) over the last 75 years. 🔥
Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.
