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Samuel Hurtado

@samuelhurtado

Head of Stress Testing division at Banco de España. Macroeconomics, machine learning and worrying about a world full of post-viral sequelae. He/him.

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16.11.2024
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Latest posts by Samuel Hurtado @samuelhurtado

It may be identifying "had covid and was sick enough to go to the doctor get tested get recorded as a case, vs got it but it wasn't that bad", or maybe "was sick and went to the doctor turned out it was covid, vs turned out it was something else". In both cases, understatement of effects.

13.03.2026 18:22 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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RAUI, a new uncertainty indicator based on AI techniques, captures how different topics contribute to overall uncertainty using an embedding model to select relevant articles
an LLM to quantify the level of uncertainty
www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi... @mortezaghomi.bsky.social @samuelhurtado.bsky.social

13.03.2026 16:59 👍 3 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1

I'm very happy with this new paper 😄
(Particularly, I think our methodology provides better measurements, and that's always a good thing)

13.03.2026 18:17 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Avian influenza: detections in birds decline across the EU Detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in birds in Europe have started to decline following the seasonal peak in late autumn and early winter.

🆕 quarterly monitoring report on #AvianFlu w/ @ecdc.europa.eu & EURL:

🔹HPAI detections in birds declining in Europe but are higher overall than recent years
🔹Small rise in mammal detections
🔹First possible EU spillover from wild birds to cattle in NL

Low public risk.

link.europa.eu/DQ9f3T

#H5N1

12.03.2026 14:36 👍 13 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 1
A woman in a mask
Headline:
Why Do Some People Still Wear Masks In 2026 And On A Completely Unrelated Note Why Is Everyone In The Office Sick Right Now Apart From The Guy In The Mask?
Story from Jerk Wingley and Terramin Defishunsee

Photo from Adobe

A woman in a mask Headline: Why Do Some People Still Wear Masks In 2026 And On A Completely Unrelated Note Why Is Everyone In The Office Sick Right Now Apart From The Guy In The Mask? Story from Jerk Wingley and Terramin Defishunsee Photo from Adobe

Why Do Some People Still Wear Masks In 2026 And On A Completely Unrelated Note Why Is Everyone In The Office Sick Right Now Apart From The Guy In The Mask?

12.03.2026 19:54 👍 9167 🔁 3283 💬 83 📌 151
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Green energy transition and vulnerability to external shocks Green energy transition and vulnerability to external shocks

I have a paper on this. Summary is: it works, but you need other things beyond going green

(you need to decouple electricity prices from fossil fuel prices: can't have oil/gas as the marginal technology and marginal markets setting prices)

www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...

12.03.2026 09:25 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Green energy transition and vulnerability to external shocks Green energy transition and vulnerability to external shocks

@chrischirp.bsky.social

I have a paper on this. Summary is: it works, but you need other things beyond going green

(you need to decouple electricity prices from fossil fuel prices: can't have oil/gas as the marginal technology and marginal markets setting prices)

www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...

12.03.2026 09:23 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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This is hilarious.

Also, completely enraging.

11.03.2026 01:56 👍 9498 🔁 4347 💬 139 📌 215

You are right but there are also counter examples: Nerdwriter, Hello Future Me, PBS idea channel, are/were successful and almost always positive. The fact that half my examples are "dead" says something though.

10.03.2026 18:12 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

That's not Q226L, but seeing mutations in that location out there in the wild is very concerning

09.03.2026 06:58 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

This should be a bright, blinking light catching everyone’s attention.

07.03.2026 20:32 👍 222 🔁 99 💬 2 📌 2
Caitlin KALINOWSKI over X

I resigned from OpenAl. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together.
This wasn't an easy call. Al has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I'm proud of what we built together.

Caitlin KALINOWSKI over X I resigned from OpenAl. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn't an easy call. Al has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I'm proud of what we built together.

OpenAI head of robotics just resigned over company deal with the Pentagon saying…

“Surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got”

07.03.2026 19:05 👍 7141 🔁 2665 💬 141 📌 211

“My little girl was completely burned,” he said. “There was nothing left of her. We could only identify her from her school bag, which she was still holding. She was completely burned.”

05.03.2026 15:23 👍 1228 🔁 597 💬 45 📌 49
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If anyone is friends with any Georgian air traffic controllers, buy them a nice bottle of wine. As guardians of pretty much the only narrow gap still available between Europe and Asia that avoids both Iran, the Gulf, Ukraine and Russia, they are under some substantial pressure.

03.03.2026 14:26 👍 3978 🔁 1284 💬 71 📌 134

Looking at the prices of live cattle and beef, I think that source is missing most of the outbreaks these times
bsky.app/profile/samu...

02.03.2026 19:54 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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One of my favourite sides of politics/media.

02.03.2026 10:20 👍 13570 🔁 4303 💬 132 📌 177

Empiezo a sospechar que el Premio FIFA de la Paz está amañado.

28.02.2026 08:34 👍 440 🔁 152 💬 16 📌 6

1. Grab the oil
2. Create an oil crisis
3. Profit

01.03.2026 08:56 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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This is official data from Spain, where I live, and where 85% of the >18 population got the first two doses of the vaccine, and 55% of the population got the third dose as well. Yes, vaccines are great (I'm on my 7th dose), but no, vaccines alone are absolutely not enough.

26.02.2026 15:00 👍 17 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Given what prices are doing, how likely is it that under-reporting of H5 has gone way worse?
bsky.app/profile/samu...

25.02.2026 11:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Live Cattle - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News Live Cattle rose to 245 USd/Lbs on February 24, 2026, up 0.01% from the previous day. Over the past month, Live Cattle's price has risen 3.80%, and is up 22.81% compared to the same time last year, ac...

Data source is tradingeconomics
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/li...

25.02.2026 09:40 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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That's not the case for milk and eggs, but my guess is that there are public interventions in those markets (probably import agreements with other countries)

25.02.2026 09:40 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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H5N1 must be still doing the rounds in farms across the US, even if there's almost no information about outbreaks anymore. The prices of live cattle and beef are at 10-year record levels. Poultry not so much but still quite high.

25.02.2026 09:38 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 2
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AMD Scores $60B AI Chip Deal With Meta - Technology Org AMD agrees to sell up to $60 billion in AI chips to Meta over five years, with Meta gaining the option to acquire up to 10% of the chipmaker.

To see how dumb "datacenters in space" is:
If you made the ISS with current tech but same size, it could have around 800kW of solar power generation and heat dissipation capacity. This Meta-AMD deal would require 7500 times updated-ISS if it was set up in space.
www.technology.org/2026/02/25/a...

25.02.2026 09:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Here's the problem, though. If you stand up to tanks in the streets, everyone will agree you're a Brave Hero. But if you stand up to the small things -- stopping the train before it really gets started -- you will be coded as *annoying*, as uptight, as moralistic, as uncool.

22.02.2026 20:21 👍 1622 🔁 261 💬 16 📌 36

Exactly what happened in Nazi Germany and occupied Europe

21.02.2026 07:38 👍 591 🔁 217 💬 39 📌 5
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‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks Karen Newton was in America on the trip of a lifetime when she was shackled, transported and held for weeks on end. With tourism to the US under increasing strain, she says, ‘If it can happen to me, it can happen to anyone’

‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks

21.02.2026 12:01 👍 855 🔁 450 💬 54 📌 75
Mia Valentina Paz Faria
A 7-year-old from Venezuela who was living in Austin, Texas 
Detained for 70 days

“I don’t want to be in this place I want to go to my school.”

Mia Valentina Paz Faria A 7-year-old from Venezuela who was living in Austin, Texas Detained for 70 days “I don’t want to be in this place I want to go to my school.”

UPDATE: Staff at the ICE concentration camp in Dilley, Texas have begun raiding the dormitories of kids and their parents to confiscate and destroy letters from the children. This is in response to the ace reporting by 
@micarosenberg
 et al for ProPublica:

UPDATE: Staff at the ICE concentration camp in Dilley, Texas have begun raiding the dormitories of kids and their parents to confiscate and destroy letters from the children. This is in response to the ace reporting by @micarosenberg et al for ProPublica:

“I don’t want to be in this place I want to go to my school.”

- 7 year old imprisoned by ICE for 70 days in a concentration camp in Texas.

Today, after @propublica.org published this story, the camp was raided to confiscate letters from the children.

www.propublica.org/article/ice-...

17.02.2026 19:31 👍 12166 🔁 6994 💬 324 📌 831
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FDA reverses course, agrees to review Moderna’s flu vaccine The FDA reversed course and told Moderna it would review its application for a new flu vaccine, the company announced Wednesday.

#FDA backs down on #Moderna: The agency had refused to review the company's licensure application for an mRNA flu vaccine, but after significant pushback has relented. www.statnews.com/2026/02/18/f...

18.02.2026 13:45 👍 425 🔁 151 💬 4 📌 31
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Vaccines are awesome (I've had 7 covid jabs so far) but they won't spare you a significant amount of health sequelae. You need a respirator and avoiding covid altogether for that.
(Spanish data because that's where I'm from)

18.02.2026 08:13 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0