Jon Green

too many TWFE diff in diffs in the training

you aren't "protesting the corporation" or whatever by stealing from the store, you're just making it more expensive for other people to shop there

not that any of these explanations are anything more than post-hoc rationalization but yeah man maybe one of the reasons whole foods is expensive is they have to price in a bunch of shrinkage caused by people like you

@nickmullen on twitter: itll be interesting to see who "hates the cops" when they get robbed and need someone to show up 7 hours later and shrug their shoulders

a lot of people confuse economic leaders using TV appearances to try to reach people in the administration with those people revealing what they actually think about stuff

LLMs both make p-hacking easier and reporting requirements that guard against p-hacking more tractable.

Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social):

Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.

GBR: 1 USA: 0 Bottom 4th

It’s called cricket now

it’s the same amount of daylight, we’re just moving it around. more like Daylight Accounting Gimmick Time imo

you can just disagree with fetterman's decision. members of congress mostly don't write their own posts

for sure, in the short run the volume concerns are real but I’m not sure what that works out to in equilibrium (if your CV suddenly shows 20 papers/year, everyone knows what you’re doing; journals will likely find ways to adapt to a ton of slop submissions)

at least for my use cases I can do *better* research with just me and a couple undergrad RAs than I otherwise would be able to pull off without a lab. I think that’s good!

of course, of course

one thing we know LLMs can’t do (yet) is experience a lovely early spring evening. it is absolutely lovely outside right now folks.

I think progressive/moderate is shorthand for a combination of:
- their theory of electability (mobilize the base vs. persuade non-Democrats)
- that crockett is more *partisan* than talarico, even if they're similarly located on the ideological dimension

Claude is really good! And plenty of people on this website think so! But yeah if you kick a hornets nest you’re probably gonna get stung.

Sure, my point is that your post was tailor-made to generate a reaction that confirmed your belief on this point.

politically interested Democrats in particular have spent the last ten years learning how to call bullshit on "he's just kind of dumb, he didn't really mean it that way"

I'm definitely not sure that's the audience for a *post* that comes out swinging at researchers writ large on this specific website.

I agree with you on a lot of the substance, but I'm with Anton that this was unnecessarily provocative.

not really relevant to the thread but this finding does prompt the question of whether what's being measured here is really Christian nationalism™ vs. more general religious attitudes

Most cryptocurrency research asks: Who owns it?
Might be the wrong question about a multi-trillion dollar market, whether you're opposed or a supporter.
The more important question for both groups might be: who would consider owning it?
New work 👇
Paper link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1mhPF3SU%7...

Graham Platner is actually an experiment designed to elicit everyone’s rank-ordering of how committed they are to their post-2024 election takes.

"The U.S. reputation as a fair dealer and reliable partner will be in shambles. Yet again, the Trump administration has apparently used peace talks as a pretext for striking at an adversary, making it pointless for future adversaries to engage in negotiations."

This hadn’t gone exactly how they’d like. In December, Bloomberg reported recently, “a senior US defense official posed a hypothetical scenario” to Amodei: What if a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile were hurtling towards the US with only 90 seconds to spare, and Anthropic’s AI were the only way to trigger a missile response to save the country, but the company’s safeguards wouldn’t allow it, the senior official mused in a December phone call. “Call me,” was how Pentagon officials interpreted Amodei’s answer, according to another senior defense official briefed on the discussion, who described being astounded by the billionaire’s response. LOL. Our beautiful generals have many medals and some even have battlefield experience, but I can say with some confidence that they have never engaged with a Rationalist online and are deeply unprepared for what it means to pick a fight with one.

[Dario Amodei Bane voice] “Oh, you think stupid elaborate hypotheticals are your ally. But you merely adopted elaborate and weirdly specific hypothetical scenarios; I was born in them, molded by them. I didn’t see a normal argument until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but BLINDING!”

one of the funniest things to keep coming out of the anthropic reporting is that the pentagon was trying to convince amodei by proposing elaborate hypothetical scenarios. buddy do you think an EFFECTIVE ALTRUIST has never considered a bizarrely specific and elaborate hypothetical scenario??

📢 We're Hiring!

The Wesleyan Media Project (WMP), in collaboration with Wesleyan University’s Hazel Quantitative Analysis Center (QAC) at Wesleyan University, is seeking a postdoctoral researcher in computational social science to join us.

I have a friend who works on the publishing side of the academic publishing game and when we talk about academic publishing we are often speaking completely different languages. I suspect we'd both be surprised at the value-add publishers see in this.

What Are Young Men Seeing About the Epstein Files on Reddit? While most political information on Reddit is “apolitical,” Epstein content seems to be more directly aimed against Republicans than other political news

The latest from @ymriofficial.bsky.social : What are young men seeing about Epstein on Reddit?

youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-are-y...

Delighted to show off some of YMRI's new social listening tools, with a case example of what young mens' subreddits are saying about Epstein

re: today's entry, strength (valence) and moderation (ideology) are separable. plausible you want to do both, and also plausible that the causal arrow goes party/candidate eval --> trait eval rather than the other way around.

increasingly identifying as an ambivalent centrist in the moderation debate (I think both sides make some good points and sometimes get over their skis)

I think I’m currently on team Door #3 (image of tree options for TX Dem Sen polling)

Door #3 until Tuesday.