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Wichtiger Hinweise: EUROMOD berechnet nicht alle Steuern, sonder vor allem direkte Steuern (Einkommenssteuer und Sozialversicherungsbeitraege)
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The existing SCT provides relief but remains limited in scope due to coverage gaps.
Removing the household composition eligibility criteria goes a long way in reaching those most affected.
Making social protection systems more adaptive & inclusive is critical for improving climate resilience.
We simulate several reforms to the 'Social Cash Transfer', the main social assistance benefit in Zambia, to improve the resilience of households against such climate-related shocks.
Poverty is expected to increase significantly under the pessimistic scenario.
The simulated shocks disproportionately impact districts with already higher poverty levels today, thereby exacerbating poverty in these already vulnerable regions.
We simulated an optimistic scenario (rainfall average of 2015-2022) and a pessimistic scenario (rainfall in 2022). Negative rainfall shocks are concentrated in selected districts in the optimistic scenario. Negative rainfall shocks affect the majority of districts in the pessimistic scenario.
Negative rainfall shocks have sharply increased in recent years in Zambia
Zambia relies heavily on rainfed-agriculture, making it vulnerable to droughts & irregular rainfall. We simulate a rainfall shock & it's consequences on poverty/consumption & show how the social protection system could improve household's resilience to climate shocks.
doi.org/10.35188/UNU...
