🇺🇸🇮🇷💣 U.S. intelligence agencies have detected signs that Iran is beginning preparations to deploy large numbers of naval mines in the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.
@kieranwilliams67
Comparative political scientist. Author of books on the 1968 "Prague Spring", intelligence services, electoral systems, Václav Havel. https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mDF8dbEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao https://kdwilliams7.medium.com/
🇺🇸🇮🇷💣 U.S. intelligence agencies have detected signs that Iran is beginning preparations to deploy large numbers of naval mines in the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.
For Russia, the surge in oil prices after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran amounts to an economic windfall at a crucial moment.
It's leaving the Kremlin well placed to emerge as one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.
Just recently Peter Thiel was warning us against people who promise safety and peace.
💭 Iran at War: The Russian Angle
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social explains how tensions involving #Iran could affect #Russia’s broader interests in the Gulf, where Moscow’s economic ties to GCC states often exceed its ties to Tehran.
Full conversation in the comments ⬇️
Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case that could determine whether people who use marijuana and other illegal drugs can lawfully own guns. During the hearing, justices peppered the government with questions that suggested they were uncomfortable with the extent of the ban.
From @saradzhyan : he has put together more reactions from Russian sources to the U.S. operation against Iran: www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-...
A few days ago the NY Times profiled extensive contingency succession planning
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...
Maybe the most vital reporting I've seen today. Trump admin went to war today with his own intelligence saying that Khamenei's death could lead to the IRGC taking over.
Trump raises prospect of 'friendly takeover' of Cuba, says Rubio in talks reut.rs/3Mz2OFR
At all three places where I taught, veterans and military students are admired for their service, their ability to get their academic work done quickly and extremely well, and for often balancing family and school.
Not *once* have I ever heard a faculty member disparage a military student.
Slovenské ministerstvo životního prostředí prohrálo soud ohledně odstřelu medvědů v Liptově na severu země, mezi kterými byla i mláďata.
Podle žaloby ekologické organizace My jsme les není správné likvidovat tyto šelmy plošně, bez rozmyslu. irozhl.as/ArR
The U.S. administration did not send a single representative to the official commemoration events marking the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nor did it issue a single word through its embassy in Kyiv -- not even a standard diplomatic boilerplate.
Absolutely wild. WSJ reporting that some OpenAI staffers thought the Tumbler Ridge shooter's use of ChatGPT raised the potential of real world violence but leadership decided not to alert RCMP. www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
"Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel." www.ft.com/content/d034...
Teamed up with the excellent Jan Hruška ( Masaryk Uni 🇨🇿 / Adam Mickiewicz Uni Poznań 🇵🇱) to explore how upper chambers can guard against democratic backsliding. A neglected topic.Our new piece in Democratization:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Free eprints: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
RAND is closing down its Gun Policy in America project, an initiative that provided what experts called the most sweeping and reliable synthesis of evidence on the effectiveness of various gun laws. The think tank is also sunsetting an initiative that poured funding into gun violence research.
I've been working on this for ages in various countries: the story of the intelligence buildup to Putin's 2022 invasion. How did the US and Britain find out so much, and why were Europe and Ukraine sceptical.
It's a long one:
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
🇪🇪 Estonian intelligence's top Russia analyst Andres Vosman warns that Moscow obsessively monitors its society, dreads fallout from returning war veterans, and faces economic stagnation and dependence on China—making Russia unstable and unpredictable.
The challenge is not just to win the election but to rebuild and reform captured and politicised institutions without further undermining rule of law - a “post-illiberal trilemma” that Poland’s liberal-centrist government has struggled with (see @jodemocracy.bsky.social article by Stanley/Bill).
In Putin’s Orbit: The Crypto Politics of Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Thiel – Byline Times bylinetimes.com/2026/02/03/i...
Data centers use MASSIVE amounts of water
Just one Google data center in Iowa used 1 BILLION gallons of water in 2024 -- enough to supply all of Iowa's residential water use for 5 days. ⬇️
A UK climate security report backed by the intelligence services was quietly buried – a pattern we’ve seen many times before.
More > tcnv.link/q09MFqr
Moscow to MAGA: Pro-Kremlin Pravda Network Amplifying Alberta Separatism
graph tracking democratic backsliding is occuring more quickly in the US than elsewhere.
New from me: It is not just that the US is experiencing democratic backsliding. Authoritarianism has emerged more quickly than in other benchmark countries.
This graph from John Burn-Murdoch sums it up. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/autocracy-...
Interesting profile of Hungarian opposition Peter Magyar. Long interview in English (which Magyar speaks well) with veteran BBC reporter Nick Thorpe who really knows his stuff in Hungary /CE. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Please chip in for winter warmth for the students at Taras Shevchenko Kyiv Uni! gofund.me/eba202aac
How a 1993 pseudo-documentary predicted (sort of) our current crisis
kdwilliams7.medium.com/how-a-1993-p...
putin's most impressive accomplishment is getting europe to cheer for German rearmament
My latest piece for the Guardian:
Wales is on course to have a majority of parties in the Senedd who support Welsh independence.
The best way to secure the future of the UK is to make it work for the people of the UK.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...