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Kieran Williams

@kieranwilliams67

Comparative political scientist. Author of books on the 1968 "Prague Spring", intelligence services, electoral systems, Václav Havel. https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mDF8dbEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao https://kdwilliams7.medium.com/

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13.11.2024
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Latest posts by Kieran Williams @kieranwilliams67

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🇺🇸🇮🇷💣 U.S. intelligence agencies have detected signs that Iran is beginning preparations to deploy large numbers of naval mines in the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.

10.03.2026 19:24 👍 16 🔁 6 💬 3 📌 0
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Why Vladimir Putin is the biggest winner from the war in Iran U.S.-Israeli strikes in the Middle East have driven up the price of oil, strengthening the Kremlin’s ability to fund its military campaign.

For Russia, the surge in oil prices after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran amounts to an economic windfall at a crucial moment.

It's leaving the Kremlin well placed to emerge as one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.

09.03.2026 16:44 👍 64 🔁 52 💬 9 📌 4
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Just recently Peter Thiel was warning us against people who promise safety and peace.

09.03.2026 16:59 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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💭 Iran at War: The Russian Angle

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social explains how tensions involving #Iran could affect #Russia’s broader interests in the Gulf, where Moscow’s economic ties to GCC states often exceed its ties to Tehran.

Full conversation in the comments ⬇️

03.03.2026 16:10 👍 6 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
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Chart of the week: Russia lost more territory than it gained for the first time since 2023 Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bir...

Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.

03.03.2026 21:04 👍 463 🔁 122 💬 5 📌 6
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Should Illegal Drug Use Cost Someone Their Gun Rights? SCOTUS Appears Skeptical The justices heard oral arguments in a case that could determine whether people who use marijuana and other illegal drugs can lawfully own firearms.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case that could determine whether people who use marijuana and other illegal drugs can lawfully own guns. During the hearing, justices peppered the government with questions that suggested they were uncomfortable with the extent of the ban.

03.03.2026 00:52 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 2
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From @saradzhyan : he has put together more reactions from Russian sources to the U.S. operation against Iran: www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-...

02.03.2026 02:42 👍 2 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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Inside Iran’s Preparations for War and Plans for Survival

A few days ago the NY Times profiled extensive contingency succession planning

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...

28.02.2026 21:28 👍 13 🔁 11 💬 0 📌 0
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Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would...

Maybe the most vital reporting I've seen today. Trump admin went to war today with his own intelligence saying that Khamenei's death could lead to the IRGC taking over.

01.03.2026 01:48 👍 317 🔁 137 💬 10 📌 16
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Trump raises prospect of 'friendly takeover' of Cuba, says Rubio in talks U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday raised the prospect of a "friendly takeover" of Cuba, telling reporters at the White House that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was dealing with the issue at a "very high level."

Trump raises prospect of 'friendly takeover' of Cuba, says Rubio in talks reut.rs/3Mz2OFR

27.02.2026 22:25 👍 22 🔁 19 💬 11 📌 11

At all three places where I taught, veterans and military students are admired for their service, their ability to get their academic work done quickly and extremely well, and for often balancing family and school.

Not *once* have I ever heard a faculty member disparage a military student.

28.02.2026 01:02 👍 140 🔁 26 💬 6 📌 6
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Střílejí medvědy náhodně, upozorňovali ekologové na postup slovenského resortu. Soud jim dal za pravdu Slovenské ministerstvo životního prostředí prohrálo soud ohledně odstřelu medvědů, mezi kterými byla i mláďata. Podle žaloby ekologické organizace není správné likvidovat tyto šelmy bez rozmyslu.

Slovenské ministerstvo životního prostředí prohrálo soud ohledně odstřelu medvědů v Liptově na severu země, mezi kterými byla i mláďata.

Podle žaloby ekologické organizace My jsme les není správné likvidovat tyto šelmy plošně, bez rozmyslu. irozhl.as/ArR

26.02.2026 16:01 👍 6 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

The U.S. administration did not send a single representative to the official commemoration events marking the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nor did it issue a single word through its embassy in Kyiv -- not even a standard diplomatic boilerplate.

24.02.2026 13:03 👍 846 🔁 321 💬 41 📌 36
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Exclusive | OpenAI Employees Raised Alarms About Canada Shooting Suspect Months Ago The ChatGPT maker opted against informing Canadian authorities about Jesse Van Rootselaar’s descriptions of violence last June.

Absolutely wild. WSJ reporting that some OpenAI staffers thought the Tumbler Ridge shooter's use of ChatGPT raised the potential of real world violence but leadership decided not to alert RCMP. www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

20.02.2026 23:28 👍 1699 🔁 835 💬 32 📌 140
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Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia Leaks reveal €500mn contract for man-portable ‘Verba’ system to rebuild Tehran’s air defences

"Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel." www.ft.com/content/d034...

23.02.2026 00:16 👍 27 🔁 9 💬 0 📌 0
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Are the upper chambers a source of democratic resilience? Evidence from elite perceptions in the Czech Republic In recent years, several Central and Eastern European countries, including Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, have experienced significant democratic backsliding. The Czech Republic was also perceived ...

Teamed up with the excellent Jan Hruška ( Masaryk Uni 🇨🇿 / Adam Mickiewicz Uni Poznań 🇵🇱) to explore how upper chambers can guard against democratic backsliding. A neglected topic.Our new piece in Democratization:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 
Free eprints: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

22.02.2026 00:32 👍 11 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 1
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RAND Is Sunsetting Its Gun Violence Research Initiatives Amid Trump’s Cuts Experts lamented the think tank's closures as a loss for policymakers, advocates, and researchers who have relied on the data to prevent shootings.

RAND is closing down its Gun Policy in America project, an initiative that provided what experts called the most sweeping and reliable synthesis of evidence on the effectiveness of various gun laws. The think tank is also sunsetting an initiative that poured funding into gun violence research.

22.02.2026 00:51 👍 15 🔁 19 💬 2 📌 0
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A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans ...

I've been working on this for ages in various countries: the story of the intelligence buildup to Putin's 2022 invasion. How did the US and Britain find out so much, and why were Europe and Ukraine sceptical.

It's a long one:

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

20.02.2026 10:32 👍 279 🔁 127 💬 33 📌 23
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"We Know that the Kremlin is Very Worried" – Interview with Estonian Foreign Intelligence's Top Analyst - VSquare.org If at one moment Russian people have to choose between the television and the refrigerator, the refrigerator will win. If there is nothing left in the refrigerator, people might suddenly come to the streets and that is the end of this regime.

🇪🇪 Estonian intelligence's top Russia analyst Andres Vosman warns that Moscow obsessively monitors its society, dreads fallout from returning war veterans, and faces economic stagnation and dependence on China—making Russia unstable and unpredictable.

14.02.2026 18:29 👍 19 🔁 10 💬 0 📌 0

The challenge is not just to win the election but to rebuild and reform captured and politicised institutions without further undermining rule of law - a “post-illiberal trilemma” that Poland’s liberal-centrist government has struggled with (see @jodemocracy.bsky.social article by Stanley/Bill).

01.02.2026 17:20 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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In Putin’s Orbit: The Crypto Politics of Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Thiel The web of ties between Epstein, Moscow and Silicon Valley leads back to Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage

In Putin’s Orbit: The Crypto Politics of Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Thiel  – Byline Times bylinetimes.com/2026/02/03/i...

04.02.2026 05:29 👍 30 🔁 16 💬 0 📌 0
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Data centers use MASSIVE amounts of water

Just one Google data center in Iowa used 1 BILLION gallons of water in 2024 -- enough to supply all of Iowa's residential water use for 5 days. ⬇️

08.02.2026 00:41 👍 89 🔁 91 💬 7 📌 5
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A UK climate security report backed by the intelligence services was quietly buried – a pattern we’ve seen many times before.

More > tcnv.link/q09MFqr

03.02.2026 17:21 👍 27 🔁 16 💬 1 📌 2
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Moscow to MAGA: Pro-Kremlin Pravda Network Amplifying Alberta Separatism - DisinfoWatch The Pravda News Network has been identified by France’s Viginum, as the distribution platform for the Russian “Portal Kombat” disinformation operation.  The claims in this post are anchored in current...

Moscow to MAGA: Pro-Kremlin Pravda Network Amplifying Alberta Separatism

02.02.2026 17:25 👍 12 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 1
graph tracking democratic backsliding is occuring more quickly in the US than elsewhere.

graph tracking democratic backsliding is occuring more quickly in the US than elsewhere.

New from me: It is not just that the US is experiencing democratic backsliding. Authoritarianism has emerged more quickly than in other benchmark countries.

This graph from John Burn-Murdoch sums it up. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/autocracy-...

31.01.2026 15:12 👍 2425 🔁 1066 💬 74 📌 99
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The Documentary Podcast - Hungary: The alternative to Orban - BBC Sounds Can opposition leader Peter Magyar challenge Viktor Orban?

Interesting profile of Hungarian opposition Peter Magyar. Long interview in English (which Magyar speaks well) with veteran BBC reporter Nick Thorpe who really knows his stuff in Hungary /CE. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

29.01.2026 21:39 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Donate to Winter Warmth for Kyiv University, organized by Victoria Somoff In recent weeks, Russia has intensified attacks on Kyiv’s civilian infrastructure, r… Victoria Somoff needs your support for Winter Warmth for Kyiv University

Please chip in for winter warmth for the students at Taras Shevchenko Kyiv Uni! gofund.me/eba202aac

29.01.2026 17:19 👍 9 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 2
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How a 1993 pseudo-documentary predicted (sort of) our current crisis It was late January and the British television presenter Francine Stock was talking about a possible war between the European Union and the…

How a 1993 pseudo-documentary predicted (sort of) our current crisis
kdwilliams7.medium.com/how-a-1993-p...

29.01.2026 20:27 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

putin's most impressive accomplishment is getting europe to cheer for German rearmament

27.01.2026 19:55 👍 670 🔁 149 💬 12 📌 11
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Wake up, Westminster:after May, the Scottish and Welsh parliaments will likely be for independence | Will Hayward With Plaid Cymru and the SNP leading polls in their respective nations, can the United Kingdom continue in this – or any – form, asks Guardian columnist Will Hayward

My latest piece for the Guardian:

Wales is on course to have a majority of parties in the Senedd who support Welsh independence.

The best way to secure the future of the UK is to make it work for the people of the UK.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

22.01.2026 14:04 👍 48 🔁 25 💬 5 📌 3