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Michael Wara

@michaelwara

Works at Stanford on equitable climate and energy law/policy with a big helping of wildfire and insurance.

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04.07.2023
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Latest posts by Michael Wara @michaelwara

Newts are surprisingly adventurous creatures.

10.03.2026 22:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The newts can depend on the Wara family.

10.03.2026 20:35 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Favorite sign in the MMWD.

10.03.2026 20:30 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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17/ "Never start a bombing campaign that will completely halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz" is right up there with "never get involved in a land war in Asia” in terms of the classic blunders. -- Nate Silver
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

09.03.2026 01:13 πŸ‘ 55 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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35/ Trump mulls taking over the Strait of Hormuz - CBS.

09.03.2026 20:29 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Woah.

09.03.2026 05:16 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Retaliation was swift. This could quickly get out of control given the eacalatory spiral we are on.

bsky.app/profile/apne...

08.03.2026 17:23 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iran's FM condemns US attack on Qeshm's freshwater desalination plant, warns of grave consequences US President Donald Trump announced that Iran promised not to attack its neighbours anymore

Multiple news outlets are reporting a US attack on an Iranian #desalination plant.
If verified, this violates international law protecting #water systems during wars, and it sets a dangerous precedent, given intense dependence of Gulf countries on desalination.
timesofoman.com/article/1691...

07.03.2026 18:32 πŸ‘ 2189 πŸ” 1290 πŸ’¬ 111 πŸ“Œ 209
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But today, the whole southeast is full of prescribed fire. That’s the right way to manage the problem. Get ahead of it. Choose the time and place of the firefight instead of letting nature decide. CA has a lot to learn from FL, GA, and other southeastern states about wildfire resilience at scale.

07.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

I was in Orlando last week at a reinsurance conference. It was a red flag day and the forest looked like you could drop one match and it would go up. I had never seen with my own eyes and felt why FL had such wildfire risk. But it was obvious. Hair on the back of your neck stands up obvious.

07.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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For Energy, ESG Now Means Economics, Security and Geopolitics With β€œenergy dominance” comes great turbulence. President Donald Trump’s open-ended war against Iran reflects a US seemingly unconstrained by energy needs and ready to wield its own fossil fuels as in...

Oil jumps, sure, but the Iran War's real beneficiaries are renewables, nuclear - and coal
@opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

06.03.2026 14:24 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is going to be a HUGE issue for this year and next year. The tropical Pacific is the heat engine of the planet. This is the engine going into overdrive. You WILL notice this in your day to day lives.

06.03.2026 18:59 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Whew.

All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El NiΓ±o event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

05.03.2026 23:05 πŸ‘ 418 πŸ” 192 πŸ’¬ 20 πŸ“Œ 31
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Unsere neue Studie: die ErderwΓ€rmung hat sich ab 2015 erheblich beschleunigt. Die rote Kurve zeigt 10-Jahres-Trends, um je 1 Jahr versetzt; der letzte ist 2015-2024.
Die blaue Kurve zeigt den Trend vor und nach dem objektiv bestimmten change point.
πŸ‘‰ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

06.03.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 275 πŸ” 120 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 6

Killing the other side's leader and demanding unconditional surrender makes negotiation both impossible and pointless. If so, then the downside of escalation goes away, and the conflict becomes existential.

1/2

06.03.2026 15:35 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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With Qatar’s Gas Shut Off, Western Energy Giants See a Big Payday

And here they say the true thing. Payday for ExxonMobil and Cheniere.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...

05.03.2026 05:57 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Tax cuts for corporations. Healthcare benefits cuts. Tariffs (tax increases for regular people). And now, a war that is going to cost $1B a day. And in the meantime, gas and natural gas prices are going to be a HUGE tax on regular Americans that is directly attributable to this war of choice.

04.03.2026 20:19 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Tax cuts for corporations. Healthcare benefits cuts. Tariffs (tax increases for regular people). And now, a war that is going to cost $1B a day. And in the meantime, gas and natural gas prices are going to be a HUGE tax on regular Americans that is directly attributable to this war of choice.

04.03.2026 20:19 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Prediction: IOC stock buyback programs.

04.03.2026 18:51 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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U.S. Gas Prices Continue to Rise

The predictable result of a war of choice. A tax on American consumers and a huge windfall for the US oil and gas industry.

U.S. Gas Prices Continue to Rise www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...

04.03.2026 17:20 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
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U.S. Gas Prices Continue to Rise

The predictable result of a war of choice. A tax on American consumers and a huge windfall for the US oil and gas industry.

U.S. Gas Prices Continue to Rise www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...

04.03.2026 17:20 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

What if not this is an impeachable offense?

Forget about process and the war powers act. This is not a close call. We are at war.

Democrats need to say this out loud.

04.03.2026 16:45 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

President Trump took an oath to uphold the Constitution. That document says,

Article I, Section 8, Clause 11:

[The Congress shall have Power . . . ] To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; . . .

04.03.2026 16:45 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Apologies. I am a subscriber.

02.03.2026 20:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I read this and think, that sounds like a job for an isotopic analysis - all the carbonate chemistry that is supposedly going on is going to fractionate C and O with more signal. And also, you could probably do some simple controlled experiments with animals (rats) and learn a lot more.

02.03.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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How economically diverse is your neighborhood? This map ranks places in the Bay Area Are there any places left in the Bay Area where the haves live side-by-side with the have-nots?

What’s missing from this map is the percentage of retirees that can only live in the place they are in because of Prop 13. Would love to see a correction for that.

www.sfchronicle.com/projects/202...

02.03.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Proposed California home insurance laws would guarantee coverage for fire-safe homes After the deadly 2025 Los Angeles County wildfires, lawmakers have proposed a flurry of insurance-related legislation aimed at providing more transparency and mandating coverage for fire-safe homes.

This is dangerous for the 85% of Californians who don’t live in high wildfire risk areas. www.sfchronicle.com/california-w....

01.03.2026 01:47 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Well worth reading in full.

28.02.2026 23:43 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Key issue isn’t cost, it’s production capacity.

28.02.2026 20:54 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks for sharing that. Reassuring.

28.02.2026 20:52 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0