Shirin

a graph of the advanced US trade deficit, showing a large spike to $1.75T annualized in January

Advanced data already showed Americans were panic-importing goods in anticipation of Trump's tariffs in Jan—a trend that likely accelerated in Feb, and might continue to dominate Mar.

If these tariffs persist for any length of time, they will have massive negative impacts

The economy appears to be gagging on the uncertainty created by the haphazard economic policymaking happening in DC. Retail sales, manufacturing production, real consumer spending, home sales and most telling, consumer confidence, are all down meaningfully in the past month or two.

Digging a bit deeper, foreign-born women (followed by foreign-born men) driving growth in US labor force since 2007 (data sourced from BLS)

Abstracting from the impact of an aging population, prime-age (25-54) labor force participation trends by gender show women’s participation rates significantly surpassing pre-pandemic levels

Labor force participation in the US has been and remains on a downward trend (hence the lower-than-many-expected unemployment rate during the latest rate hike cycle) - there’s a smaller supply of labor for employers to pool from.

Citi Just Became a Magnet for Ambitious Working Moms The first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank is offering a new way of working.

Much of the post-pandemic recovery in labor force participation has been driven by more women in the workforce - supported by workplace flexibility. Taking that away amid demographic pressures and potentially stricter immigration will only add further headwinds to labor dynamics going forward.

Excellent take on the economic implications of the recently announced tariffs

-Women do not appear to face a racial/ethnic penalty on top of any gender penalties in earnings, although they do face lower employment probabilities than their white/native female counterparts in all three countries, even after controlling for education and experience.

-In the British labor market, Black men appear to face a racial ‘glass ceiling’ effect, limiting their upward mobility prospects.

-Second-generation African/Black men (alongside men from the Maghreb in France and from South Asia in the UK) earn less than their native/white counterparts on average, even after controlling for education, age, experience, sector, occupation and industry.

-The employment gaps for second-generation African/Black men (vis-à-vis native/white men) are largest in Germany, followed by France and the UK. These gaps persist and remain large even after controlling for education, age and experience – although they have narrowed over time.

Key takeaways:

-In all three countries, African/Black men (followed closely by men from the Maghreb and Middle East in France) face the worst labor market outcomes, even after controlling for education and other factors that typically influence labor market outcomes.

Very happy to share the results of my research endeavors at the Paris School of Economics under the supervision of Thomas Piketty this past year, examining racial/ethnic inequalities in the labor markets of France, Germany and the UK.

piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Mohamm...

Iran!