@hussmanjp
Philanthropist. Finance, economics, public policy, neuroscience, genomics, and a 6-string. Realistic optimist often mistaken for prophet of doom. Be kind. This account retains zero trolls. www.hussman.com
Current market valuations. With more compression, we may find some short-term "roses in the garbage" - see the February comment - but safety nets remain essential in all cases. A market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that's not priced to tolerate risk.
"If you want peace, peace is with you immediately"
- Thich Nhat Hanh
If we have no peace in ourselves, it will be impossible to create peace in the world.
We need enough stability and insight to see that this is, because that is, and this is not, because that is not.
Hatred, ignorance, fear, greed, and discrimination are viruses, magnified by suffering, carried in buckets, spilled onto the world.
We cannot eliminate them by actions that magnify hatred, ignorance, fear, greed, discrimination and suffering - only by actions that relieve them.
First heard Jay Beckenstein of Spyrogyra at the Park West in Chicago when I was 18 and he was 29. Grateful for his music ever since.
youtu.be/UfWfZwKEZIM
As every voice outside and in ourselves calls us to discriminate "us versus them" - a reminder that human beings are not our enemy. Our enemies are hatred, greed, ignorance, the impulse to eliminate life we find inconvenient. The beginning of wisdom is realizing that the "other" side also suffers.
Television pioneer Fred Rogers, gone 23 years ago today.
His acceptance speech for the Lifetime Achievement Emmy Award is always worth a watch.
#RIP 💔
This made my day ☀️
- thanks for your kindness ccochella - John
“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell.”
- James Grant
A new thoughtful/nuanced market comment just dropped:
“A bubble is a crash on its way to becoming. A crash is a bull market on its way to becoming. All we can do is to accept, and as difficult as it may be – embrace – whatever form we have in each moment, so we can do our best with each of them.”
Still modestly constructive, but the sector has had a huge runup, so one wouldn't maintain the same weight as one might have had say, a year ago. Conditions would be more favorable for a larger exposure, say, with the ISM under 50 and following a material correction. Hope that helps!
Not “bullish” - rather, noted a small pocket of conditions even amid extreme valuations and ragged internals when one can use a safety-net rather than a “bearish” hedge. Think a few weeks here and there (not at the moment) - roses amid what we might otherwise discriminate against as garbage.
The simple reason why household spending and therefore GDP have remained strong despite the weakness in the labor market is that households have increasingly dissaved. Continued growth at these rates require either better labor markets or and even faster pace of dissaving.
‘Transfer payments have been the only significant driver of rising disposable income this past year, and without that boost income would be growing at its lowest rate for over 10 years, at less than 2% annually and negatively in real terms.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
yep
👀
APOLLO: “.. There are no signs of AI boosting profit margins for companies outside the tech sector.”
🫤
‘When central bank independence weakens, the risks don’t stay theoretical: inflation volatility tends to rise, recession risk can increase, and equity valuations can come under pressure.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
Great new article from Bill Hester 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...
Everything we do, say, or give our consent - carries our name and reveals our face. We can't say "the ends justify the means" without also becoming the means.
Whether kindness or suffering, love or hate, we are what we pour into the world. Our actions are our only belongings.
Hey @sheilabair.bsky.social - welcome to BlueSky! Glad you’re here 🐳
Dr. King with my teacher, Thich Nhat Hanh (Thay).
Dr. King nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1967.
Thay said that two marks of a bodhisattva - one who devotes one's life to the service of others - are compassion and nondiscrimination. Dr. King was a bodhisattva.
Dr. King with my teacher, Thich Nhat Hanh (Thay).
Dr. King nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1967.
Thay said that two marks of a bodhisattva - one who devotes one's life to the service of others - are compassion and nondiscrimination. Dr. King was a bodhisattva.
In honor and memory of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
Admin clearly struggling with the reality that it is impossible to be both populist and business friendly.
Ultimately it comes down to the tradeoff between the labor income needed to keep the economy growing and the profits of corporations needed to keep equities at highs.
Really excellent analysis. I see now that @hussmanjp.bsky.social is also on Bluesky:
‘Investors have not only driven price/earnings multiples to historically elevated levels, but those price/earnings multiples are based on earnings that have been jacked up by massive sectoral deficits.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc26... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social
